Hot August Nights (and Days)

The Padres just finished the best month of baseball since August of 2007.

The team that, at one point, was 20-41 on the season, just won 18 games in a month for the first time in 5 years.

Even the most optimistic of fans could not have predicted that a team with 13 players on the DL, including 3/5ths of the starting rotation and their closer somehow put together a month equal to a team featuring Jake Peavy, Greg Maddux, Chris Young as the starting rotation and Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff and the Giles brothers.

Such a month deserves a blog post.

August Behind-the-Numbers

Team BA: .264 (7th in NL)
Highest since August 2011

Team ERA: 3.79 (6th in NL)

HR: 26 (8th in NL)
Ahead of the Los Angeles Moneybags...er Dodgers.

OBP: .328 (4th in NL)

Favorite Game of August: 8/21/12 vs Pittsburgh. Headley's 2 run HR walk-off.

2nd Favorite Game: 8/27/12 vs Atlanta. Casey Kelly, one of the key pieces of the Adrian Gonzalez trade, makes his MLB debut going 6IP, 0R, 3H, 4SO and throwing 87 pitches.

But perhaps most telling to why the offense is suddenly clicking. Strikeouts. In April, only 1 team in the National League struck out more than the Padres (192).

In August, only 3 teams struck out less than the Padres (194).

And when they get on, they are getting over. The Padres stole more bases than all but 1 team in the N.L. in August (25). Nor do they squander base runners, grounding into the fewest double plays in the N.L.

Were they a paper tiger, beating up on lesser competition thanks to the scheduling Gods? Hardly. The month of August featured 21 games vs teams within 5 games of a playoff spot or better (Cincinnati, Atlanta, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Arizona).

Ask any Padres fan and my guess is they will tell you that, as a fan, this has been the most enjoyable month of this season by a long shot. But it's a fading memory unless it leads to bigger things. In 2009, the Padres ended the season in August and September going 32-23. This followed a June and July in which they went 17-37. And was later looked at as the first inclination that the 2010 team would win 90 games.

If the Padres play September above .500, it will be the 3rd month in a row they've done so, something they did only once in 2011 (14-14 in May). More importantly, it may be the same bellwether for 2013 as it was back in 2009.

Already you have seen the front office take notice that the team as constructed is perhaps closer to contending than previously believed. Chase Headley wasn't moved, and in turn the Padres were rewarded by Chase who lead the league in HR and RBI:

Chase Headley finished August with the most HR (10, tied) also and RBIs (31) in baseball. Last #Padres player to do so with Caminiti, 8/96.

— Follow The Padres (@FollowThePadres) September 1, 2012

The rest of the baseball world is starting to notice as well. Just this week, two articles came out highlighting the recent Padres surge and the prospect of a competitive future that now may be closer than previously believed. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, wrote that the Padres look like a team that may contend "sooner rather than later."

Fangraphs tempered their expectation somewhat, writing this week that "suddenly .500 looks less like a goal and more like an expectation."

But really it comes down to this. Baseball is suppose to be fun. It's a pastime. We watch because it's fun to watch. Except, for most of this year, it hasn't been.

Until now.

An All-Star Game at Petco Park

There are few San Diego media members who, when they say something or spout an opinion, I listen. And listen closely. Darren Smith of XX1090 is at the top of that list.

Tonight, he tweeted something interesting. On the day that a new ownership group was announced, and simultaneously Petco Park was once again passed up for an All-Star Game (being awarded to Target Field in Minnesota in 2014), Darren Smith tweets this:

Off air, one of the #Padres new owners told me that getting the All Star Game to PETCO was a priority:"We've got to get that here".

— Darren Smith (@DSmithShow) August 30, 2012

Was this an off-the-cuff comment in light of the news of the day? More importantly, does this comment imply that the ownership groups interest in an All-Star Game is a vital component to having one awarded to your home park?

I don't know the answer to this. But I do know this. I want an All-Star Game in Petco Park. Consider this the official kick-off of the Left Coast Bias campaign to bring the Midsummer Classic to San Diego. I intend to take full credit for when this actually happens (knowing full well I have little, if any, actual ability to effect this decision).

Here is a list of venues that have not hosted an All-Star Game, in order they were opened:

Tropicana Field (opened in 1990; Rays played there since 1998)
Great American Ballpark (2003)
Citizens Bank Ballpark (2004)
Petco Park (2004)
Nationals Park (2008)
New Yankee Stadium (2009)
Target Field (2010)
Marlins Park (2012)

Here's what is more interesting to me. Since Petco Park opened in 2004, here are the venues that have hosted an All-Star Game, and more importantly, when those parks opened:

2004 - Minute Maid Park (Opened in 2000)
2005 - Comerica Park (Opened in 2000)
2006 - PNC Park (Opened in 2001)
2007 - AT&T Park (Opened in 2000) Also, a break from the typical NL/AL split.
2008 - Yankee Stadium (Opened in 1923) It's last year in existence.
2009 - Busch Stadium III (Opened in 2006)
2010 - Angel Stadium (Originally opened in 1966; Renovations in 1998)
2011 - Chase Field (Opened in 1998)
2012 - Kaufman Stadium (Opened in 1973; Renovations done in 2009)
2013 - Citi Field (Opened in 2009)
2014 - Target Field (Opened in 2010)

Of these venues, 3 have previously hosted an All-Star Game. New York ('39, '60, '77); Anaheim (1989); Kansas City (1973). So let's remove those from our list.

The longest gap between a park being opened and an All-Star Game being awarded is 13 years with Chase Field in Phoenix. Per Darren Smith yet again:

@leftcoastbias @sdrhythm Very political.Some thought Arizona getting it was directly due to Moorad leaving (think Reinsdorf)

— Darren Smith (@DSmithShow) August 30, 2012

Otherwise, on average, a brand new venue is awarded an All-Star Game 4 to 5 years after opening. So, who was it in San Diego that became the albatross upon which MLB would not grant a Midsummer Classic to San Diego? Sandy Alderson, Jeff Moorad, Neil the Beerman? Who knows?

But those people are gone now. And in comes new owners, clearly respected by the MLB fraternity of owners (as evidenced by how quick the approval vote went).

The point really is this.

San Diego is a fantastic sports town. And has proven time and again to be a marquee city when hosting major sporting events. And it's been since 2008 (PGA U.S. Open) since America's Finest City has had the opportunity to do so.

The Park at the Park packed with fans. A homerun derby that will bring more controversy then any before it (assuming the fences aren't moved by then). The San Diego harbor as the backdrop for 3 days, while the spotlight of MLB shines brightly.

And maybe this time, the Padres representative will actually get to play.

2014 is heading to Minneapolis. An AL city. An NL city is on deck. 2015 will make 11 years since Petco Park has opened.

It's time MLB.

To Better Days

I was born in 1980 so, technically, I was around for the 1984 World Series Padres team. Except I was 3 when it happened. And living in Virginia. It was in 1984 that I was moved (Because, at 3, you don't move. You are moved) to Oceanside. Life as a military family.

To borrow a phrase from Gaslamp Ball, I've been cognitively aware of the Padres since about 1987, if I had to put a year on it. I'm sure I was a "fan," for whatever that means to someone under the age of 10, but when I really search my memory it is 1987 that comes to mind. I have no idea why. But for the purposes of this post, let's use that year as a starting point.

In that time frame I've witnessed some extraordinary highs:

Benito Santiage Wins Rookie of the Year - 1987
Mark Davis Won a Cy Young - 1988
Tony Gwynn Won Batting Title on Final Day vs Will Clark - 1989
Tony Gwynn Chases .400 - 1994
The 1996 Season, including an MVP for Caminiti, Batting Title for Gwynn, and a sweep of the Dodgers on the final day to win the NL West. - 1996
Going to the World Series - 1998 (also includes my first MLB playoff game in person)
Division Championships in '05 and '06 - 2005; 2006
Jake Peavy's Cy Young - 2007
Trevor Hoffman's 500th Save - 2007
Trevor Hoffman's Number Retired - 2011

But boy, there have been some dark, dark times. The 1994 MLB Strike, the fire sale in which Gary Sheffield, Fred McGrief, Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar all left within a year's time, Game 163, the 1998 World Series, Ken Caminiti's steroid abuse and subsequent death, the Adrian Gonzalez trade, and most damaging perhaps of all, the Moores divorce.

Tomorrow, the Padres officially welcome in their new ownership group. A group that has spent $800 million to be the 6th different owner in the franchise history. No one today can say whether this will be looked back as the dawning of the most successful years in Padres history, a colossal failure, or something in between.

But that's the cool thing about fresh starts. Anything is possible. There is a world of possibility. For a fan base that has endured only 16 at or above .500 seasons in their history, and has only won 1 total game won in World Series play, new owners, with new pocketbooks, bring with them the possibility that better days are ahead.

Congratulations! You Made a Sale!

The Dodgers are Darth Vader.

Well, that's probably not accurate.

The Dodgers are The Empire. Whoever owns the Dodgers then, in effect, becomes Darth Vader. I'm looking at you crazy rich guys and Magic Johnson.

So, if you are following along with this metaphor, guess who that makes the Padres? Ok, who said Ewoks?

The rebel alliance was ultimately lead by the son of the leader of the Evil Empire. On August 16th, 2012 the sale of the Padres was completed to an ownership group that includes Kevin O'Malley, son of former Dodgers owner Peter O'Malley, nephew of Peter O'Malley Peter Seilder, Phil Mickelson (more on this in a moment) and headed by Ron Fowler (and this).

Kevin O'Malley is the Luke Skywalker in this equation. Hopefully with more the Empire Strikes Back version versus the whiny A New Hope version. I suppose that makes Phil Mickelson like, I don't know, Admiral Akbar? This metaphor is exhausting. The point is, we drink your milkshake L.A. And next, we are coming for your Death Star.

Now we are mixing movies. Let's move on.

Who is Ron Fowler? I'll be honest. I don't really know. But I do know he is the CEO of Liquid Investments, a beer distributor. Among the products they help distribute:

Dogfish Head
Lagunita's
21st Amendment
Ballast Point
Anchor Brewing
New Belgium Brewing

That's some fine beer taste. Any guy who is helping get these beers out to the general public is a guy I can trust. I hope. (Editor's Note: They also distribute PBR, so there's that. A guy's got to eat. And hipsters got to be hipsters)

So far we have a beer guy and the son of Darth Vader on our side.

And then there's Lefty.

The trend in sports ownership these days is to have a face of your ownership group. No team does this better than the Brooklyn Nets and Jay-Z. At this point, I want to play for the Nets, that's how cool Jay-Z makes it seem despite having nearly no actual ownership stake. The aforementioned Magic Johnson in L.A. being only the most recent example.

And now we have Phil. Perhaps the second most famous athlete from San Diego (that may be hyperbole, don't get caught up in the semantics), Phil Mickelson has made a career out of taking high risk shots in high risk situations. He crashes and burns as much as he succeeds. But it's almost always entertaining.

But what Phil is really great at is getting up and down for par. Around the green, pitching, chipping, out of a bunker, Phil knows how to put the ball in the hole when he's close, no matter the lie.

The Padres may be in a bunker right now, but it's a greenside bunker. And hopefully this is the ownership group to get the Padres up and down for that par.

Star Wars metaphors, golf metaphors and a There Will Be Blood reference. My work here is done.

To Dream the Impossible Dream

If you are not one for optimism, or one for rooting for what appears to be the impossible, look away. If underdogs and made-for-Hollywood comebacks make you queasy, this post is not for you.

Because what I'm about to say defies logic, common sense, and will likely lead you to discredit any opinion forthwith as the ravings of a madman.

But I'm not so sure the Padres are out of the 2012 playoff picture.




Stay with me now. And let me make this crystal clear. I have no expectation that they can do it. Zero.

But...it could happen.

In 2011, the St. Louis Cardinals were 10.5 games back of the Wild Card on August 25th. They won the World Series.

In 2010, well, I think you know what the Giants did.

And let's not forget the multiple years of Rocktober we've witnessed. The precedent has been set.

What if the Padres could be one of those stories?

Again, this is madness. Craziness really. Or is it?

The Padres finished a July above .500 (15-11) for the first time since 2010. Meanwhile, the Dodgers played .500, the Diamondbacks at 14-13, and the Giants at .500. Should that happen again in August, the Padres would be 7.5 games back at the start of September.

In September, the Padres play the Diamondbacks, Giants and Dodgers 6 times each.

It's possible. That's all I'm saying. Not probable. Possible.

Cashner is throwing bullpen sessions. Grandal is tweeting about his return. Chase Headley has caught fire now that he doesn't have to check trade rumors every hour of every day, Quentin is healthy (ish) and providing protection, and the team is committing less errors.

If sports has taught me anything, is that the impossible is possible. It was impossible that Adam Scott would lose the British Open with a 4 shot lead with 4 holes to play. Yet he did. It was impossible that the Giants could beat the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl. Except they did. George Mason in the Final Four? IMPOSSIBLE! Yet it happened.

Teams get hot. Other teams fade. Lightning in a bottle. Cliche. Cliche. Cliche.

But isn't it more fun to hope?

"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies." - if I have to tell you what this is from...watch more movies.

All Quiet on the Trading Front

"So, you're telling me there's a chance."

That seems to be the message being sent by Padres GM Josh Byrnes today. As the trade deadline passed, nary a peep was heard from the front offices of Petco Park today.

Instead, the Padres spent most of their time leading up to the trade deadline extending pieces they believe will help them win in the more immediate future. Quentin is here to stay for awhile. So is Huston. Which begs the question "how badly do we need a closer on a sub .500 team?"

The answer with those two extensions seems to be that the front office of the Padres expect to compete. Soon.

But despite that, most expected the Padres to jettison their most coveted piece. Chase Headley. The market was weak for third basemen. With an extra wild card, there were even more teams willing to be buyers at the deadline. Chase's contract is more than reasonable.

As first pitch in Cincinnati was thrown at 4:00pm Pacific, hours after the deadline had passed, there was Chase Headley starting at 3rd.

It had been reported in the days leading up to the deadline that Byrnes was looking for a Latos-esqu deal. Talks appeared to progress to something beyond simple talk with at least Baltimore and Oakland. But teams weren't willing to meet the Padres high demand. The market never changed. The Padres took very few calls reportedly on Tuesday. And there stood Chase Headley, the longest tenured current Padre, still a Padres on Tuesday night.

This is the right call. The message is clear from Brynes. They expect to compete soon. If that is the case, you don't send a key cog of that wheel away for prospects. That's rebuilding. Byrnes appears to believe the rebuilding is over.

For the many shortcomings of the 2012 San Diego Padres (and there are many, though some through no fault of their own i.e. injuries), Chase Headley is not one of them. Yes, one can cherry pick statistics and point out his faults. The fact that one has to cherry pick stats to such a degree to find fault in a player, however, says everything you need to know about a player.

I don't know how one scouts and analyzes this season for the Padres. The team today is so different from where this season started that one almost has to throw out the first two months. We still don't know what the starting rotation would have done had the ghost of Tommy John not haunted Darren Balsley's staff.

I do know that, even fully healthy, this team as is is not winning a newly fully loaded NL West. Tweaks will need to be made. But Chase Headley is part of the solution, not the problem.

Of course, no extension of Chase followed his no-trade. At least not yet. Which will leave the door open this winter for us to all go through this again.

Competing in 2013

The Padres spent Sunday spending $27 million. I'm still in pajamas and it's 2pm. So you could say our days have been a bit different. But I digress.

The Padres signed local boy Carlos Quentin to a 3 year, $27 million contract, ending all conversations about whether (and for what) he would be traded. He won't be. He is here to stay.

But this isn't a conversation about the merits of that deal. For the most part I like it, though the no-trade clause is always dangerous. But time will tell whether this was a smart move.

No, today I'm more interested in what this means about the organizations expectations for the immediate future. A signing like this would seem to indicate that the rebuilding process is in its final leg. That the team is planning to be competitive, perhaps as soon as 2013. So, let's look at that.

For one, 2012 has provided little in the way of a barometer regarding the Padres pitching staff. The current staff is a hodgepodge of players who happened to be available and answered their phone. For example, currently I'm watching Ross Ohlendorf pitch, a player who started 2012 in Pawtucket. Kip Wells, Jason Marquis. To paraphrase a sage mentor "these are not the starting pitchers you are looking for."

By now the Padres injury struggles are well documented. Needless to say, the post-Latos trade projected starting 5 of Volquez, Luebke, Stauffer, Richard and Moseley/Bass spent precious little time on the field.

Then there's the middle infield. I hate to do this to you and I'll make it fast but, we started this year with the Hudson/Barlett tandem. A distant memory now, it took awhile to rectify this situation because, you guessed it, injury. Forsythe and Cabrera were injured, Amarista was an Angel. The times were different.

But not anymore. Hudson is gone. Bartlett is going to be gone. Hundley's struggles (and now injury) are in Tucson. The lion share of the Latos trade is on the field in San Diego. The team is drastically different then it was to start the year. Hell, it's different from where this team was on Memorial Day.

Yes the team is playing better. Yes the competition has been weaker. But keep in mind, this is a team that got swept from the Cubs so beating even weak teams is progress.

Can they compete in 2013? Here's what their lineup by mid-June should look like. This obviously takes the optimistic view that they will not suffer as many injuries next year as this.

C Yasmani Grandal
1B Yonder Alonso
2B Forsythe/Amarista
SS Cabrera/Amarista
3B Headley or Gyorko
LF Quentin
CF Maybin
RF Venable/Denofia

SP Luebke
SP Stauffer
SP Cashner
SP Richard
SP Bass or whoever 2013's Volquez/Harang type person is

Closer: No idea

Now, let's look at the NL West. Currently the Giants lead the West with a 53-42 record despite being 11th in Runs Scored in the NL. (The Dodgers are 13th in that category BTW). It doesn't take a ton of firepower to win the West. It does take pitching.

So, can this team compete in 2013? I imagine that depends on how you define "competing?" I define it as playing important baseball games in September. Can the team above stay in the race in the West in 2013? I think they've shown in the past 3 weeks that they can. It's a young team, but, thanks to injuries in 2012, many of the young pieces are getting MLB experience ahead of schedule. That can only help moving forward.

It's for that reason that I like the Quentin signing. The team believes they are close. The product on the field is better. And the NL West is not top-heavy. You don't extend Quentin when you are rebuilding.

It appears that rebuilding process is now near its end.