Saturday, September 10, 2011

Looking In on the Pre-Season Bets

Back before the season started I looked up a few pre-season proposition bets for the upcoming MLB season and wrote a blog post about it. As we are under 3 weeks before the season ends, I thought it would be fun to look back and relieve those picks. And for you all to see why I work for a living vs gamble for a living.

Most Regular Season HR's by Any Player: O/U 46.5
My Pick: Over
How's It Looking? For the second year in a row, Jose Bautista is leading MLB in HR's. Whether that's because pitchers haven't learned to stop throwing him first pitch fastballs, sign stealing or some other reason is irrelevant. For purposes of this blog, what is relevant is he has 41 HR's as of this writing. So with less than 3 weeks away we are looking at 6 more HR's. Doable...though he is currently in a 5 game HR drought. Time, my friend, is a ticking.

Most Regular Season Wins by Any Pitcher: O/U 20.5
My Pick: Over
How's It Looking? WINNER. WINNER. CHICKEN. DINNER! Justin Verlander is already at 22 wins which means "we goin' Sizzler, we goin' Sizzler." It's the era of the pitcher. Never mind that my thought was it would be one of Philly's four starters. Just ignore that part and enjoy your steak.

Albert Pujols Total HR's: O/U 38.5

My Pick: Over
How's It Looking? Pujols is sitting at 34 as we speak. The reasoning for going over is, A) it's Albert Freaking Pujols, and; B) Contract Year. This would already be a winner had it not been for his mid-season injury. Even with that injury, though, we are only 5 HR's away from cashing in. The bad news: He hasn't gone deep since Sept. 1.

Adrian Gonzalez Total HR's: O/U 36.5
My Pick: Over...barely
How's It Looking? Not so good. I tempered my pick on this one but landed on over for this reason: He had gone 30, 36, 40, 31 over the past four years while playing at Petco Park. Moving to Fenway, the thought was he would increasing those HR totals. Despite the MVP type season he is having, his HR total is at 24, on pace for his lowest total in the past 5 years.

Buster Posey Total HR's: O/U 19.5
My Pick: Under
How's It Looking? Great! Thanks to a season ending injury in May, Posey managed only 4 HR's this season. Fun sidenote. In the article I just Google'd to get the date of Posey's injury, the story mentioned how the Giants were "hesitant to say this was season-ending." Oh Giants. So young, so naive.

4 Aces (Halladay, Oswalt, Lee, Hamels) Total Regular Season Wins: O/U 59.5
My Pick: Under
How's It Looking? The thought for going under here had more to do with their bullpen. What ended up happening was the Philadelphia offense wasn't quite what I expected, but then again, neither was Lee. Still time for them to hit the over here, but as Philadelphia has all but secured the NL East, not seeing a lot of starts for these 4 down the stretch.

Heath Bell Regular Season Saves: O/U 35.5
My Pick: Over
How's It Looking? WINNER. WINNER. CHICKEN. DINNER. Bell, in two years as a full time closer, had yet to save less than 40. And while this year may be the year, he is already at 36 saves despite the fact that he's been MIA for long stretches of time this season (through no fault of his own).

San Diego Padres Regular Season Wins: O/U 75.5
My Pick: Over
How's It Looking? Well, if they go undefeated the rest of the season...forget it. I'm embarrassed. Let's move on.



BonnieSue12 said...

Did you take these to Vegas? If so you would have done better then brake even for sure it seems, depending of course on amt bet on the Padres:)
And what happened to Adrian? Did we jinx it by going to Boston? Maybe SD can afford him back, ha

GTH said...

As usual, all my best bets are never made. Sadly, I made these picks for fun but didn't get to Vegas before the season started. As for AGon, no idea. His numbers are great (.340 BA, 100+ RBI) but his power is down. Kind of odd considering he is playing in a far more hitter friendly park. Perhaps we spooked him that day. =)