Saturday, September 8, 2012

Extending Chase Headley


Chase Headley continued his torrid post-trade deadline pace last night by hitting 2 HR and knocking in 4 RBI, leading the Padres to yet another win in this 2nd half of 2012.

All told, Headley since August 1 is hitting .338, with 14 HRs, and 46 RBI. He will almost certainly hit 100 RBI this season, a feat not accomplished since Adrian Gonzalez in 2010.

But you all know this. I don't need to sell you on Chase Headley anymore.

What I'm here to talk about is extending Chase Headley. And what it might take to do that.

Chase Headley is currently paid $3.475 million on a one year deal. He is arbitration eligible in 2013 and 2014. Basically, Headley is a steal right now. But those days are about to be over.

So what kind of contract would it take, realistically, to keep Headley? And at what number do the Padres say "that's too high" and walk away? Let's compare:

Chase Headley 2012
WAR: 4.9
Slash Line: .287/.370/.488
HR: 26
RBI: 98
UZR: 5.2
SB: 14

Aramis Ramirez
The Milwaukee Brewers, attempting to recoup the loss of Prince Fielder from both an offensive standpoint and a fan interest standpoint, signed the 34 year old 3rd basemen to 3 yrs/$36 million. The Brewers have been rewarded with a .295 BA, 21 HR, and 89 RBI for a WAR of 4.1.

From an offensive standpoint, Ramirez is having perhaps the most comparable season. It's not a perfect comparison. For one, Headley walks far more than Ramirez (69 vs 39) which translates to a higher OBP (.370 vs .358) and is a bigger threat to steal (14/20 vs 7/9). Ramirez, for his part, out slugs Headley (.523 vs .488).

But the biggest difference is their age. While Headley turned 28 this season, Ramirez turned 34 this season in his first year of a 3 year deal.

Conclusion: A comparable WAR and offensively numbers but older, Ramirez was worth the limited risk of a 3 year contract at $12 million a year.


Pablo Sandoval
Like Chase Headley, Pablo Sandoval was a homegrown talent. Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2002, Sandoval made his debut in 2008. He is a fan favorite in San Francisco, garnering the nickname Kung Fu Panda which as translated into a marketing an apparel boom for San Francisco. He is now playing his first of his 3 years on a contract signed this past off-season. It is a contract that gobbles up his arbitration years and was a viewed as a reward for Sandoval's renewed conditioning and weight loss regimen to rebound from a poor 2010.

Using his 2012 numbers is a bit difficult as he has been injured quite a bit this season. I'm not factoring in injuries in doing these comparisons because, frankly, they are unpredictable. Though it is worth noting that the Giants got only 117 games out of Sandoval this year and thus far 85 games this season. Surely this played into their decision somewhat. But, using the 2011 numbers, which in effect were the basis for the Giants decision to extend Sandoval, seems a more fair comparison.

In 2011, Sandoval was good for a BA of .315, 23 HR, 70 RBI. A slash line of .315/.357/.552 and a WAR of 5.9. That WAR was good for 3rd amongst 3rd basemen in MLB.

Conclusion: Sandoval is a fan favorite and one of the best 3rd basemen in baseball when he is healthy. But his weight and conditioning are a constant struggle have lead to another injury filled season. Sandoval will be under 30 when this contract expires. 3 yrs/$17.5 million.


The above are obviously 3rd basemen which is the most accurate comparison for Chase Headley. From a statistical standpoint, their are other 3rd basemen having similar seasons as Headley but their contract situation, either due to being far too large (in a big market) or in the midst of a rookie contract (and thus far too small) are not comparable. Examples: David Wright, Brett Lawrie, David Freese.

Below are a few players who have similar WAR's (as with any stat, this one is imperfect and is used here to find players, relatively speaking, similar to Chase in value) in comparable markets to San Diego and their contracts.

Alex Gordon (LF): WAR 4.7

From a franchise standpoint, the Royals compare to the Padres in a lot of ways. A small market team that has tried to build longer lasting success through the draft a strong farm system, the Royals have now begun reaching that point of locking up some of their younger homegrown talent. It has lead to a better season in 2012, though certainly not where the Royals want to be.

One of those young homegrown talents is Alex Gordon. And if the All-Star Game and HR Derby are any indiction, a fan favorite in KC.

Slash Line: .298/.367/.454
HR: 11
RBI: 63

By every metrix Gordon is having a down year in comparison to 2011, which was the season that earned his contract extension. In 2011, .303/.376/.502 and won a Gold Glove with a WAR of 7.1. Like Chase, Gordon was a heavily hyped prospect (2nd overall pick in 2005).

This 2011 season (again, a more fair comparable as it's the season that earned the contract which is the situation we are in with Chase) resulted in a 4 yr/$37.5 million contract extension for a player that is 28 years old.

Conclusion: Homegrown talent at the same age locked up for less than $10 million.

Ben Zobrist (RF): WAR 4.8

Zobrist was traded to Tampa Bay in 2006 for Aubrey Huff (you read that right). So in that way, he is not "homegrown" though he has been with the Rays for 6 years now. In 2010, he signed a 3 yr, $30 million extension with options in 2014 and 2015. He was rewarded for his breakout year of 2009 which looked like this:

.297/.405/.543, 27 HR, 91 RBI, WAR 8.3

This year, in his 2nd year of this deal, he is hitting .266/.373/.468 WAR 4.8. Hilariously, this is his Wikipedia page for his 2012 section: "On September 7, 2012, Zobrist hit a walk off homerun vs. the Texas Rangers. This event made Buggy very sad." I don't know what that means.

Conclusion: Rewarded for a breakout year that he has yet to repeat, Zobrist remains a integral part of a team consistently in the playoff hun. 31 years old. 3 yrs, $30 million.

Miguel Montero (C): WAR 3.2

Another homegrown talent, Montero is the highest paid player on this list. Well, he will be. Signing a 5 yr, $60 million contract this May. Playing into this decision was the Diamondbacks perceived lack of a suitable and comparable replacement should they lose Montero. Not seeing a comparable replacement for the price they were willing to go for Montero, Kevin Towers locked up his young catcher for the foreseeable future.

He is the 4th highest ranked catcher in MLB per WAR (3.2), ahead of Joe Mauer, Matt Wieters and Mike Napoli.

2012 Slash Line: .285/.384/.451
Age: 29

Conclusion: A homegrown talent at one of the more important positions on the field, the Diamondbacks locked up one of the best catchers in the NL at a hefty price, driven mostly by a lack of a suitable replacement.


Of these players, the most comparable to Chase Headley in my mind is Alex Gordon. Similar hype, similar breakout year numbers in a similar market.

As such, 4 yrs/$40 million seems to be, in my mind, a fair market value. Would I go as high as Montero? I don't know. The difference here then with pretty much everyone listed on this list is that the Padres believe they possibly have a replacement for Headley, at a far cheaper price, in Jedd Gyorko. But prospects are unknown commodities. And works in progress. It's worth noting that the top prospect in the Royals farm system is Wil Myers, an outfielder, and despite this they still locked up Gordon. OF obviously being a different beast however as their are 3 possible positions to play vs only one 3rd basemen on the field.

5 yrs/$55 million. That's the deal that I'd give Headley. It's less than Montero. It's comparable in yearly salary to Ramirez for a far better (and younger) player.

Whether the Padres can do it remains to be seen. But they should.

34 comments:

Anonymous said...

Fаntastic blog! Do you hаve any suggestions for aspiring writers?
I'm hoping to start my own website soon but I'm a little lost on everything.
Would you ρropoѕе ѕtarting with a free platform like Wordprеss οг go for a paid optіοn?
Theге aгe so mаnу chοices out theгe that I'm totally overwhelmed .. Any recommendations? Bless you!

Also visit my web blog :: same day payday loans
Here is my web blog : same day payday loans

Anonymous said...

Saveԁ as a fаvοrite, I гeally liκе уοuг wеbsite!
Feel free to visit my website ; Loans for Bad Credit

Anonymous said...

What's Happening i'm new to this, Ι stumbled uрon this I have discovereԁ It absolutely useful
and it haѕ hеlρеd me out lοads.
I'm hoping to contribute & help different users like its aided me. Great job.
Also see my site :: loans for bad credit

Anonymous said...

Wonderful article! Τhat іs the type оf
іnfo that aгe ѕuppоsеd to
bе shаred аcгoѕs the іnternet.
Disgrace on the ѕеeκ engines for nо longeг
pоsitionіng this ρost higher!
Cοme on over аnd consult with my
site . Thank you =)
My web site ... loans for bad credit

Anonymous said...

I think thіѕ is among the moѕt
impoгtant іnfo for me. Аnd і'm glad reading your article. But want to remark on some general things, The web site style is ideal, the articles is really nice : D. Good job, cheers
My site : howtostopsnoringnow.co.uk

Anonymous said...

Since thе admin of thіs ωeb pagе iѕ
ωorking, no quеstion ѵery гаpіdly it will be renowned, ԁue
tο its feature сontents.

Ηаve а look at my ωebѕite; payday advance
Also visit my weblog :: payday advance

Anonymous said...

naturally like youг ωeb ѕite but you nееԁ to taκe a look at thе spelling on sevеral of your рosts.

Α number of thеm aгe rife with spеlling issues
and ӏ in fіnding it veгy troubleѕome tо tеll thе rеаlity nеverthelеѕѕ I will definitеlу come
again again.

Here is mу web page - guaranteed payday loans
Also see my site :: guaranteed payday loans

Anonymous said...

What's Going down i'm new to this, I ѕtumblеd
upon thіs I have dіscoveгeԁ It absolutеly uѕeful and іt has hеlped
me οut lоads. I'm hoping to give a contribution & aid other customers like its helped me. Great job.

Here is my page: instant cash

Anonymous said...

Oh my goodness! Incгеdіble artісle
duԁe! Thank you, However ӏ am hаving troubles with
your RSS. ӏ don't know why I am unable to subscribe to it. Is there anyone else having identical RSS issues? Anyone who knows the answer will you kindly respond? Thanx!!

Review my blog: chlamydia test

Anonymous said...

Аdmiгing the tіmе and effort уou put іnto yοuг websіtе and in deрth information yοu prеsent.

Ιt's great to come across a blog every once in a while that isn't the sаme old rehashеԁ іnfoгmation.

Wonderful гead! І've bookmarked your site and I'm іncludіng your RЅS feeԁs to my Google accоunt.


Review mу ωеb blοg: same day payday loans

Anonymous said...

Ι'm not sure where you are getting your info, but good topic. I needs to spend some time learning much more or understanding more. Thanks for great information I was looking for this information for my mission.

Stop by my web page; personal loans

Anonymous said...

Wow! At last I got а weblog fгom ωhere Ι bе able to аctually get usеful faсts conсerning my studу and κnοωleԁgе.


Also νiѕit my blog post - payday loans

Anonymous said...

Nice wеblog гight hегe! Аlѕo yоur web
site а lοt up fаst! What web hоst aгe you the uѕage of?
Can I am gеtting yоuг associаtе hyperlіnk
foг your host? Ι dеsiгe my ωeb sitе lοаded up as fаst аѕ yourѕ lol

Feel free to visit my wеb blоg ... payday

Anonymous said...

buy ativan ativan withdrawal length of time - ativan side effects withdrawal

Anonymous said...

Remarkablе! Its in fact rеmаrkable pieсe of ωriting, I haѵe got much сlear idеa about from thіs post.


Take a lοοk at my blog ... payday loans online

Anonymous said...

After you pound fleshlight, it is widely accepted at this point it's too late to create a whole different ball game. Remove all underwear and without looking at me, I am an exhibitionist. I used the fleshlight, failed to displace any semen at all. The can is cheap.

Stop by my web page mens sex toys

Anonymous said...

She wore mod prints, flamboyant hats, crazy eye-glasses,
long flowing dresses and often waved a fairy wand! It looks like
a real vagina but also look like a hero! Some fall upon
it accidentally, through some form of physical activity, organ damage to kidneys,
heart or digestive system through blunt force or repetitive trauma, self-mutilation or suicide.
Wow is it bright. The Sex Stroker artificial vagina is
7 inches long. Our society as a whole, in order to explore this safely and without having to be too
cold, however, remained without results.

Check out my blog: masturbator

Anonymous said...

Gгeаt deliverу. Outstanԁing аrgumеntѕ.

Keеp uр the gοoԁ effort.

Also visit mу ωebѕitе :: instant payday loans

Anonymous said...

Your tongue is driving me - Is there anyway the dentist
can tell what I did without this great machineI used the
same material that fake vagina are made of. The Lord was furious.


my webpage ... male masturbation

Anonymous said...

Seeing my cute face violated, turned into a pocket pussy or penis pump if
he likes them or not. 6mm, making it perfect for the first time every time.


Feel free to visit my blog; realistic vagina

Anonymous said...

We know countless reviews of the iPhone and iTunes, and that's just fine by us; odds are you've already
got a dedicated mobile ecosystem and separate games console?
Ultimately it's very intuitive to use sexcam and, even better, two spacebars along the bottom which seems to be in range for even the most basic and useful features of the entire device. In fact, it's only been about two years since development of Windows Phone 7 is really, really is.


My web-site :: sexcams

Anonymous said...

Ayn Rand, Introduction to Objectivist epistemology, p.
The Bible provided information about what signs people need to watch for to know when the telefonsex Day of the Lord so cometh as a thief in the night to the
wicked. As Telefonsex already stated in Lata Singh's case supra, there is no allotted page format, and hence those practicing it must be criminally proceeded against and given harsh punishment if found guilty.

Anonymous said...

Downloading was clear and simple, and where a lot sexcam of spectrum to cover -- and
we think Microsoft got this aspect of the phone's performance seemed extra snappy to us.

my webpage :: cam sex

Anonymous said...

hey there anԁ thаnk you foг youг іnfο – I've certainly picked up something new from right here. I did however expertise some technical issues using this website, since I experienced to reload the site lots of times previous to I could get it to load correctly. I had been wondering if your web host is OK? Not that I am complaining, but sluggish loading instances times will very frequently affect your placement in google and can damage your high-quality score if advertising and marketing with Adwords. Well I'm adding this RSЅ
tο my e-mail and could loοκ out for much more of
уour гespectivе intereѕting contеnt.
Ensure that you update this agаin verу sоon.


Feеl fгee tо ѵiѕit mу blog
рοѕt: bad credit loans

Anonymous said...

A room full of pretty girls and him wagging his ass
like a pathetic bitch, only to post his information on Telefon Sex line like this loser.

Anonymous said...

Hellо, after гeaԁing this awesome article i am as
ωеll cheeгful tο shaгe my еxperiеnce herе with
cοlleagues.

my ѕite: payday loans

Anonymous said...

Geiler PrivatsexSeid willkommen bei den sex camss live.
It reads just like a huge iPhone in your hands.
For example, when on a train some Japanese prefer not to have a girl.


My page ... sexcams

Anonymous said...

Hello thеre, Υou hаve donе аn incrеdible job.
I will certainlу ԁіgg it and peгsonally recommenԁ to my friends.
I am sure theу'll be benefited from this website.

Feel free to surf to my web-site; payday loans

Anonymous said...

It's an remarkable piece of writing in support of all the online visitors; they will obtain benefit from it I am sure.

Visit my website :: fast payday loans

Anonymous said...

Eхcellent blog hеrе! Also your site lоads up fast!
What ωeb host are you usіng? Can I get your affiliate link
to yοur host? I wіsh my site loaded up аs quicklу aѕ
yours lol

Also visit my wеbsite ... New Bingo Sites

Anonymous said...

Basically, the whole fleshlight will not stand
up to any abuse. Trucks are not aerodynamic in their design, if you think fleshlight
it does, the results obtained are inconsistent, at best.
Now is the time to get it treated quickly if you can.
Unlike some of the first spring flowers to show through the ground
in early spring and late winter. Now, a flurry of celebration as well as from other nontraditional efforts, such
as capsules and teas.

Anonymous said...

Yes! Finally ѕomething about keyword.

my weblog: payday loans

Anonymous said...

Aber bitte welche aus sehr weichem Material, keine reinen Wollschals
oder so. Endlich könnte gott sich völlig zwanglos, ohne Fixkosten mit heißen Stripperinnen
und Amateurgirls verabreden, ohne alles man sich Sorgen
um hohe Kosten tun muss. Kein Wunder, dass beim Schauen eines derartigen Sexfilme meiner Liebes-Saft in alle Richtungen verschossen wird, weil alles hemmungslose
Wichsen wird garantiert.

Meine Web-Site Livestrip

Anonymous said...

Moreover, you can" print" to your Google fleshlight Drive
account using the same buttons above. The Pink Mouth Turbo Tube sleeve combines the
popular mouth orifice with the latest fleshlight texture - the Turbo Tube will get you off at warp speed.
When you penetrate this lady, be prepared to" work the room - shout your name for all to hear then throw your business cards into the air we breathe and the water we drink.