Tuesday, April 29, 2008

City of Brotherly Love

There's nothing new under the sun. We all know the offense sucks, we all know the bullpen is struggling.

The positive of course is the end of April is upon us. And as such, May is right around the corner. Typically, the Padres excel in May, using a strong May record to jumpstart their season. 22-6 in 2006 remains a franchise best for any month. Let's hope more of the same magic is coming.

Greg Maddux goes for win #350 tonight against the Phillies, who counter with lefty-phenom Cole Hamels. Should be a fun one. Let's hope Ryan Howard stays in his slump for at least three more days.

I have finals right now so posts will be short and/or lazy. What can I say? Also, the team is struggling, which depresses me.

Here's something fun: Baseball movies!

Top 5 Baseball Movies

1) The Natural
2) Field of Dreams
3) The Sandlot
4) Major League
5) Bull Durham

That's all for now!

Monday, April 28, 2008

Daylight Offense; National League Strategy

Two topics to cover today.

1) An often repeated "stat" about the Padres offense is that they hit better during day games. A few reasons for this theory are: players can see the ball better during the day; marine layer hasn't come in yet thus the ball travels better during the day.

I for one had subscribed to this theory myself. It seems relatively obvious that the ball will travel better if there isn't a bunch of sea water in the air. But do the numbers back up this theory? This past weekend the Padres played two day games, scoring 8 in one (a win) and 1 in the other (a loss).

A brief look at the Padres batting average in 2007 in day and night games does not show a similar advantage however. (Recognize that the stats compiled are for "day" games thus some of these games were not played at Petco, the point will be relatively the same).

Padres 2007 Day Games BA: .250; Padres 2007 Night Games: .251. Hardly a difference at all, and surprisingly, a better average at night (made more surprising by how many more night games they play generally).

Ok, but that's only BA. Perhaps a better test of offensive prowess would be to see the overall runs scored. So, let's take a look:

Day Runs Scored Avg: 4.5; Night Runs Scored Avg: 4.56. Again, no difference and if anything, a better average at night.

So do these numbers hold up in 2008 (recognizing the extremely small sample size).

2008 Padres BA at Night: .218; 2008 Padres Batting Average Day: .240. This is a substantial difference. However, I may add with the small sample size, the offensive output on Saturday may skew this number. Moreover, the lack of offense in the 22-inning game will likely skew the night numbers. Still, pretty big difference.

And Runs Scored:

2008 Padres Runs Scored Avg Night: 2.6; 2008 Padres Runs Scored Avg Day: 4.5
This is substantial and supports the theory that the higher temperatures during the day produce better offense. As all the Padres day games this year have taken place in 2008, and, as is common in San Diego at night, the marine layer comes in every night, its reasonable to equate the two.

Ultimately though, the Padres place a vast majority of games at night, so learning to hit during the evening hours is paramount.

National League Strategy

Not to sound like a broken record here but, Peavy pitched beyond admirable only to be tagged with the loss on Sunday thanks to one bad pitch. One 2-run homerun and the game was lost. What's worst is when the homerun was hit, there was a feeling that the Padres had just lost the game. Why? In part, their offense, which struggles on it's own. It struggles more when facing Brandon Webb, as it did on Sunday. But that's not to say the Padres were without chances, none better than the chance they had in the bottom of the 6th yesterday.

The Padres had loaded the bases with one out on two singles and a walk. This brought up the precarious situation of having the pitcher hit or pinch hit for him. At this point, Peavy was cruising along and, aside from one bad pitch, had pitched lights out. Still, at this juncture in the game, the Padres were down 1, 2-1 and the tying run was a mere fly-ball away from scoring. Bud Black elected to pitch Peavy.

In and of itself, I don't have a problem with this for a number of reasons. One, the bullpen needed rest. 4 extra-inning games will do that. Two, Peavy for a pitcher can handle the bat. Greene was the runner on third and so I thought while watching "hey, why not a safety squeeze." This appeared to be the idea as Peavy squared on the first pitch, taken for a ball. Ultimately, he struck out, Brian Giles grounded out and the inning was over.

This situation comes up a lot in the National League. The likely pinch hitter, Tony Clark, is certainly a better hitter than Peavy. If it were me, and my team was struggling to score off a great pitcher like Webb, I would pinch-hit. Monday is an off day so the bullpen will have that day to rest. The difference is one inning so I hardly think that one inning would save anyone in the bullpen. Moreover, against a Cy Young candidate, you don't waste your best scoring opportunity by having the pitcher hit, no matter how he is throwing on the mound. In the end, Peavy could have thrown a shutout for the remaining innings and it still would not have mattered without at least scoring the run from third in the 6th. When it goes wrong, it all goes wrong I suppose.

Edmonds

A now regular portion of the blog...Jim Edmonds should NEVER hit 5th in this lineup!!!!

Now that that is off my chest.

Padres take on the Phillies next on Tuesday. Full preview tomorrow.

Friday, April 25, 2008

Baseball for Masochist

WHAT THE F*** IS GOING ON?

Whew, ok, that's off my chest now.

But seriously, what has happened to our once proud team. The Padres find themselves in precarious situations these days: a record of 9-14 and 7.5 games back of the Diamondbacks. In the past 7 days, the Padres, as a team, have hit below the Mendoza Line (.200). Not surprisingly, in that same span, the Padres have gone 1-7. This includes such offensive "outbursts" as scoring 1 run in 22 innings, 2 runs in 13 innings, and 0 runs last night in support of Chris Young.

Now, I think we can all get on board with the fact that the past two days the Padres have faced Cain and Linececum, two of the best young arms in the NL. But, neither pitcher threw a complete game and the Giants bullpen scares no one. Well, no one but the Padres apparently.

A microcosmic look at the Padres offense: Last night the Padres, down 1 after CY threw 7 innings with 10Ks, loaded the bases on Walk, Groundout, Single, Wild Pitch, Walk. 7th Inning, down one, bases loaded, 1 out. This requires ONLY a fly ball to the outfield to tie the game as Iguchi was the runner at third. Hairston instead popped out to the third baseman and AGon grounded out. No runs in what was the Padres only legitimate threat the entire game. This has been the Padres offense in 2008.

I heard this line today on the radio and I'm going to steal it here. "Forget timely hitting, right now, I'd take untimely hitting."

Solutions? Few and Far Between. For one thing, and I've said this before, Jim Edmonds should NOT be hitting 5th in any lineup in baseball. His bat is to slow, and he strikes out to much.

But perhaps its time for Chase Headley. Chase is not lighting the world on fire up in Portland (.224 BA) but he offers legitimate power in a lineup void of such a commodity. Perhaps more importantly, he offers a fresh change, injecting some life into a team that is struggling.

Or, perhaps a trade is in order. Options are scarce but one name brought up a lot is Reggie Willits. Willits adds speed and a contact hitter. .293 BA in 2007 to go along with 27 SB would fit nicely into this team. I think its pretty clear how much the Padres miss Mike Cameron. Willits would fill that void.

But the only real solution...WIN! I beg of you, for my sanity, please, win a game!

Coming Up:

When you've lost 7 of your last 8, the last thing you want to see is a team 16-6 heading to town. Lucky us! The Diamonbacks come to town with Randy Johnson against Randy Wolf (a rematch of last Sunday, also the last Padres win), Micah Owings vs Justin Germano on Saturday, and the marquee matchup, Brandon Webb vs Jake Peavy.

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Where Have You Gone Bullpen?

The other day someone asked me whether it was "time to panic." My initial, gut reaction was no, absolutely not, its way to early. Keep in mind I said this with this in mind: Peavy was pitching tonight, against the Astros, followed by the Giants coming to San Diego.

Well...Peavy pitched admirably. Pedestrian by his own, astronomical standards. 6 IP, 4 ER, 2 SO. More indicative of his performance was where the Padres were when Peavy left. Down 4-3.

Black went to Thatcher who quickly gave up 3 runs, missing his spots badly. In a park like Minute Maid Park against a lineup such as the Astros, missing your spots is a recipe for disaster. This ran the score to 7-3.

Unlike what has happened often this season however, the Padres fought back. PMac went deep, and AGon did his best Charger impersonation at home. A 4 run 8th inning had tied the game and Heath Bell was coming in. Finally, the Padres had a game set-up as they would want it. I was going to argue a few days ago that the Padres unusually high bullpen ERA was more a case of mop-up guys getting knocked around (Rusch, Ledezma, etc.).

Heath Bell gave up 4 runs, putting the game out of reach, and the fans into panic mode.

So to answer the question that began this post, "is it time to panic?" Yes.

But hang on...it's April after all. How many times have fans seen things take place in April that never pan out (Shelley Duncan of Detroit, I'm looking at you). So let's review the Padres last three years and see how important April really is:

2005 (note: the Padres won the division with an 82-80 record):
April Record: 11-13; Most Games Under .500: 4 games under, on April 27. What drove that team to the playoffs was a 22-6 May and a winning record in 1-run games 29-20.

2006 (won division with an 88-74 record):
April Record: 9-15; Most Games Under .500: 7, on April 29. Perhaps most interesting was the team ERA of April: 4.57.

2007 (finished third with an 89-74 record):
April Record: 13-13; never under .500.

NOTE: statistics provided by http://www.baseball-reference.com/

I guess my point is this. In the past three years, the Padres have never left April with a winning record. Currently they are sitting at 9-12. They have a run differential of -28 and a bullpen ERA of 5.54.

So, time to panic, or just another April in San Diego? Time will tell, but my money is on history, and history dictates that the Padres play extremely well in May. For now, the panic button will be put away...for now.

Coming Up

Another bizarre two game series coming up, this time against the Giants. Maddux goes for win 350 tonight. Lucky for us, we get Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum. Sometimes its not stats, its luck.

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Twice Snake Bitten, Once Shy; Astros On Deck

This Just In: The Diamondbacks are good...real good. They hold the best record in baseball and their offense has scored more runs than any other team in the NL. That offense showed up on the first two days of this series, scoring 9 runs on Friday (including 6 in the first inning off Maddux, more on that in a second) and 10 runs on Saturday. To compound the problem was the sudden and drastic power outage that the Padres were facing. Being shutout on Friday 9-0 marked 17 straight innings without scoring a run (dating back to Thursday's 13th inning.)

As mentioned above, Maddux gave up 6 runs in the first inning. The Diamondbacks continually give the future Hall of Famer fits, as they continue to be the only team in which Maddux has a losing record against. That being said, Maddux deserves a ton of credit. As we wrote here at LCB and was blogged and reported about throughout the country, the Padres played 22 innings the night before, using nearly everyone in their bullpen. Maddux on Friday pitched 7 innings and threw 113 pitches (when was the last time he did that?). Did he give up 9 runs? Yes. Did he take one for the team though? Absolutely. And for that he deserves a ton of credit.

We won't mention the grand total of 3 hits that backed Maddux up.

CY got the start Saturday and frankly deserved a better fate. 6 innings and only gave up 2 runs. For that he was rewarded with a no decision and ultimately a 10-3 loss for the Padres. This belies a larger issue, the bullpen. Currently, the bullpen ranks 16th out of 16 in the NL, after finishing first in the NL a year ago in bullpen ERA. And for the second time in a week, the Padres bullpen turned a close game into a laugher in the manner of an inning. (Colorado lead 3-2, won 10-2 and then Saturday).

Get away day Sunday! Randy Wolf may go down as the pickup of the winter for Kevin Towers. Another great start for Wolf on Sunday, working into the 7th inning and giving up 4 runs. More importantly, the bats came to life:

- G'Day! Justin Huber got his first HR of his career, a 3-run shot off of Randy Johnson.

- The Padres have to figure out a way to get Calix Crabbe in the lineup. For a team sorely lacking in speed, Crabbe is a legit burner on the base paths.

- Hard to put a price on how important AGon is to this lineup. The guy just rakes.

- 9 runs is a new season high for runs scored in a game. Let's hope for more of the same in Houston.

The Jim Edmonds Situation

There is no reason, whatsoever, that Jim Edmonds should EVER hit 5th in this lineup. I don't fully know what the answer is, but I'm pretty confident that Edmonds is not it. At the plate he is a shell of his former self and frankly, looks lost in center.

Now there aren't a lot of options to fix this outfield problem. Hairston has come back down to earth and it seems that the book on Hairston's affinity to fastballs is out. Huber and Crabbe, while having nice games on Sunday, are likely not everyday options. That leaves the original option from spring: Chase Headley.

Chase Headley in Portland: .230 BA and 1 HR so not exactly raking it.

Chase Headley in Spring: .349 BA with 4 HR in 43 AB's so he CAN rake.

Maybe he's not ready, but the Padres are, and there's little time left for them to continue to watch Edmonds struggle. Moving Hairston or Crabbe into Center and giving Headley a chance in LF is the right move...considering there really are no other moves.

The Padres head to Houston for a quick 2 game series against the struggling Astros.

Final notes: Clay Hensley is set to begin a rehab start at Single A; the Padres, at 9-10, are below .500 for the first time since 2006. I might add though, that being above .500 all of 2007 got the Padres to Game 163 and that's it. In 2006, the Padres won the West, so maybe this isn't the bad omen it's made to seem like.

See you in Houston! Bring your birth certificates!

Friday, April 18, 2008

Bring on the Ram Head!

"That's it, I'm going to bed."

Said that to myself last night at least a half a dozen times. The only time I listened was around 1:20am, when Glendon Rusch looked at a called third to end the longest game in Padres franchise history.

22 innings, 6 hours and 16 mins and 3 (YES 3!) seventh inning stretches later, two throwing errors lead to the Rockies scoring the first run for any team since the 14th inning to win, 2-1.

So let's go through some of the wackiness that was April 17/18, 2008:

- 22 innings: longest in either teams franchise history. Only 9 games in major league history have lasted longer. 4 more innings and we would have had a MLB record!

- 6 hours and 16 mins missed the franchise record for time of a game by 1 min. If Rusch gets on base...

- 658 total pitches thrown. 5 innings of relief were thrown by Ledezema, good enough to register for the win in a normal game!

- Not only did the game last 22 innings, the game did not have its first run until the 14th inning. The Rockies scored first with a bases loaded walk. Cameron had pitched himself into some trouble but appeared to had pitched himself right out of it. Inducing an infield fly for the second out, on a 2-2 pitch Cameron threw a fastball that according to my Gamecast and my own eyes, was right down the middle. Called ball 3. Next pitch walked him and on we went. This inning came one inning after the Padres had squandered a chance to win it. Paul McAnulty hit a scorching line drive down the first base line to lead off the bottom of the 13th inning. After an apparent bobble in right field, PMac went for third. Was he sent by Glenn Hoffman? Replays showed PMac staring Hoffman down as he rounded second and chirping at him after he was thrown out. Either way, poor baserunning again cost San Diego a run.

- In the 18th inning, and for reasons I yet don't understand, members of the Padres (including Jake Peavy) found a stuffed dead (if its stuffed I hope its dead) rams head that they taped to the dugout...I got nothing on this.

- The Padres have now gone 94 innings without a home run. According to Baseball-Reference.com, the longest such streak by any team is 20 games, or, assuming none of those games went extra-innings, 180 innings. The Houston Astros hold this dubious distinction, a record that was set between 9-2-1979 through 9-23-1979. Put another way, those Astros went 686 AB's without a HR. They went 9-11 in those 20 games.

- Lost in this game was the work of Jake Peavy, who threw 8 innings last night of shut-out ball and struck out 11. That's 25 strikeouts on the year so far and an ERA of 1.20. I'll save the "over-working Jake in April" rant for another time.


Coming Up:

Somehow the Padres now have to go play the scorching Arizona Diamondbacks, beginning a three-game series tonight in Phoenix. Greg Maddux will go for win 350 tonight against Dan Haren; Chris Young gets his start pushed back a day and will go on Saturday against Edgar Gonzalez; and on Sunday, Randy Wolf goes up against the Big Unit. It is likely that Colt Morton will get his first start tonight at catcher, considering Bard went all 22 innings last night.

I have no earthly idea how to handicap this series. Let's just hope for the best.

I'll leave you with two final thoughts. Petco stops serving beer after the 7th inning, or, 15 innings before last nights game ended.

3 7TH INNING STRETCHES!

To sleep, perchance to dream.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

The Return of Rocktober

There exists in the world only five games that I consider to be so heartbreaking that I both can't forget them and want only to forget them. They are, in no particular order:

1) Arizona vs Illinois, Elite Eight, 2006 - Arizona blows a double digit lead with 4 mins to play.
2) Chargers vs Patriots, Divisional Round, 2007 - Another blown lead late, erasing a 14-2 season.
3) Padres vs Yankees, Games 1-4, 1998 World Series - No one wants to be swept
4) Padres vs Brewers, Game 161, 2007 - Trevor blows the save, Tony Gwynn Jr. hits a triple.
and number 5....
5) Padres vs Rockies, Game 163, 2007...

Game 163 was perhaps the most nervous I had ever been watching any sporting event, live or on television. The entire day, all I could think about was the game. As confident as I was on the outside ("Peavy's on the mound, its in the bag!") I was a ball of nerves inside. I didn't relax at any point during the game, counting down the amount of outs that were left. Peavy didn't have his ace stuff and the Padres fell behind early. I woke the neighbors when Adrian hit his grand slam to make it a new game, screamed at the t.v. while watching Brady Clark "play" center field, and was ready to pop the bubbly thanks to Scott Hairston's 13th inning home run. For a game with so many ups and downs, it seemed that the Padres had finally stuck the dagger in the heart of the Rockies. Or so I thought...

When you have watched Trevor Hoffman for as long as I have, you know when you're in for a long night. You can tell from the beginning of an inning. A hard hit double that you try to convince yourself doesn't matter because you lead by 2. But you know, he doesn't have it tonight, and you hope they hit it at someone. And then there was the now infamous slide. Did Matt Holliday touch home? Well, you know my answer to that.

So here we are, April 15th, 2008, and for the first time since that night in Denver, the Padres play the Rockies. Does it have the feel of a Padres/Dodgers series? Not quite, but there are enough Padres fans out there who have a very bitter taste in their mouth from Game 163 and the controversial way it ended. So perhaps we should look at Game 163 for the positive it has created...a new rivalry in the NL West. It may be too early to say this is a big series, but this is a big series.

- ESPN The Magazine has a great article on Greg Maddux in which this story was recounted (paraphrased): As a member of the Dodgers, Brad Penny believed that Maddux knew Penny's pitches better then he did. So one night Penny had Maddux call the entire game for him. Penny would glance into the dugout between pitches, get the sign, and throw. And he did throw, 7 innings, shutout.

- Speaking of ESPN The Magazine, Bill Simmons (aka The Sports Guy) wrote in his column this month that Barry Bonds was the "best hitter since Ted Williams." Now while the article had to do with the deafening silence that has met the news that Bonds is unemployed currently, I would like to draw a bit of an issue with the term "best hitter since Ted Williams." .338 Lifetime BA, 8 Batting Titles, over 3,000 hits and 19 consecutive seasons over .300 beg to differ with that title being given to Barry Bonds. Need further proof? SI already crowned such a person in this cover:




This is the Best Hitter Since Ted Williams. Consistent, a student of the game, and, to use Ryne Sandburg's term, he did it "the right way."









- Rockies fans are not afraid of Trevor Hoffman and are convinced Holliday was safe as evident here: http://www.purplerow.com/

- The Padres offense has managed only 2 runs in their last two games. More will be needed to beat a very potent Colorado lineup.

- Pitching Matchup for the Series: Jimenez vs Wolf; Redman vs Germano; Francis vs Peavy

- Bud Black has this to say about the recent struggles of Trevor Hoffman (who, it is worth noting, still has 4 saves already in this young season):
"Like I've said, it looks like his overall stuff is there," Black said. "For whatever reason the location is off 3-4-5-6 inches. ... He's hitting the glove. He just must be off a little."

- Finally, the pick. I'll take Peavy over Francis on Thursday, Wolf has looked good so far so let's take him on Tuesday and Germano has yet to give up a run. Wednesday he gets his first win of the season. Padres sweep and drink from the glass of revenge!

Sunday, April 13, 2008

A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Dodger Stadium

So, I'll take the push on my parlay. Padres did win 2 of 3 but I picked the wrong pitchers. A great sign on Friday night to get the win when Peavy didn't have his ace stuff. That's a huge win. As for Saturday, what is there to say other than "mama said they'd be days like this."

Chris Young right now cannot find the strike-zone. His 12 walks so far in 2008 is good enough (or would it be bad enough?) for the third highest walks allowed total in the Majors. It's worth mentioning he has some good company at the top of that list in Fausto Carmon, Dice K and Matt Cain. The short term problem of these walks is what happened on Saturday night. Hitters counts, base-runners on and a 3 inning outing the results in a Padres loss. The long term problems are a bigger concern. Chris Young's pitch counts have consistently been high since his been a Padre and he rarely if ever makes it into the 7th inning. This resulted last year in a DL stint in the midst of a Cy Young campaign. Needless to say, CY's next start will be viewed at closely at LCB as Young has walked more than 3 batters in his first 3 starts.

Sunday was not for the casual fan. 1-0 win for the Padres with the lone run coming on a sac fly. Hey, whatever it takes right? A win is a win. Maddux notched win number 349 for his career by throwing 5 innings of shut out ball. Maddux only threw 67 pitches in the game (42 for strikes) and likely could have gone longer if not for the need for some offense (requiring a pinch-hitter) and, I have to think, the temperature. For those not living in Southern California, high 90's were the call of the day here. Not conducive for a 42 year old pitcher.

Khalil Greene was the number 5 Web Gem tonight in Bristol and well earned. That play is why it's ok that he hits .250...well, the homeruns don't hurt either.

Padres have an off day on Monday and then the Rockies head to town for the first time since Number 163...full preview on Tuesday.

Big Thanks to Ashley and Jay for grabbing us a Padres flag at last weekends game. The flag flies proudly in North Park today!

And one final note: Scared Hitless is your inter-school softball champions. The number 3 seed pulled off the upset in come from behind fashion on Sunday. That leaves the Little Blue Pill season, who is on bye this week.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Los Dodgers Series Preview

Wanna win? Gotta play right? Well, the benefit of not playing is you can't lose either which made yesterday's off-day fairly relaxing after the frustration that was the Giants series.

But, it's back to business with a 3-game series starting tonight in Los Angeles. But first, I wanted to draw your attention to a few things:

- Gaslamp Ball (http://www.gaslampball.com/) has a great post about whether Trevor Hoffman blows more games in tie games than in save situations. He then compares those numbers to Mariano Rivera. I can't do it justice really so head over there, say hello and check it out.

- Arizona Diamondback pitcher Doug Davis pitched his last game before undergoing treatment by having his thyroid removed. If you want to send well wishes, AZ Snake Pit is your place. http://www.azsnakepit.com/2008/4/9/391144/doug-davis-get-well-soon-t

- Through the first week and a half of games the Padres offense has looked great and terrible all at the same time. Case in point: The Padres team batting average of .282 is tops in the National League. However, that great average has only lead to 32 runs, good enough for 13th out of 16 NL teams. Getting guys on is great. Getting guys in...better. Let's hope we see more of that batting average with runners on (when the Padres team batting average drops to .244).

Padres vs Dodgers

If I have to get you pumped up for Padres/Dodgers, then you're probably reading the wrong blog. We know what this is and we know we hate the Dodgers. There's a slight bit of urgency right now as the Padres have dropped their last two series (1-2 against L.A., 1-2 against S.F.).

Game 1 will feature a rematch of the April 5th game in which Peavy spun a 2-hit complete game. This is also the first start for Peavy since the "infamous" mystery smudge pictures surfaced. Peavy vs Penny is by far the best matchup of the weekend and should be enough to draw attention away from that "other" rivalry across the country.

LCB prediction for the series: Padres take 2 of 3 behind Peavy on Friday and Young on Saturday.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

The More Things Change...

Well that sucked...

The Padres dropped 2 of 3 against the San Francisco Giants this week. The same Giants that I and many others fully expect to lose roughly 100 games this year. The same Giants who bat Bengie Molina in the clean-up (I suppose we can't make fun of that now after his 2 dinger game on Tuesday). So, some thoughts from last nights 1-0 game.

- I will take partial blame for jinxing the outcome. On Ducksnorts.com I posted a comment at the end of the top of the 9th saying "two extra-inning games in a row against the Giants?" Of course, there was no extra-inning game as the Giants won in the bottom of the 9th. So, my bad.

- Who are you and what have you done with Jim Edmonds? The error was a freak occurrence as that ball was in his glove and somehow popped out. More concerning is the game winning hit. Was it routine? Certainly not. Is it a ball you expect Jim Edmonds to get to? Yes. Would Mike Cameron had gotten to that ball? In my opinion, yes. (I highly doubt Scott Hairston would have though). I think it's clear to anyone who has watched Edmonds play in the last week that he is not healthy. He is running poorly, he looks lost at the plate and he all together doesn't look right. Whether that's nerves from playing for a new team, the injury still lingering or just age, it is safe to say that Edmonds right now is a liability.

- Not to beat a dead horse, but there are two games in the Padres last 13 games that CF play has cost them a win. The 1-game playoff last year and the near-comical CF play of Brady Clark allowed at least 2 runs in that game. And now last night.

- Let's talk strategy. There are two plays in sports that seem like no-brainers and yet no one seems to do it. The first was illustrated in Monday night's National Championship between KU and Memphis. Up 3 with seconds to go, what is the harm in immediately fouling KU and sending them to the line...for 2! Now, the other should have happened last night. In the bottom of the 9th with 1 out the Giants had a man on second (the winning run) and the number 6 hitter up. Why then, don't you walk that batter to set up the double play? The runner you put on first doesn't matter as once the man on second scores, game over. And it sets up the potential for an inning-ending double play with the number 7 hitter for the Giants coming up. This seems like a DUH situation to me yet I rarely see coaches do this. Of course last night, the Padres didn't do it and, ultimately lost on the aforementioned double over Edmonds head.

- Some positive from the game was how good Germano looks right now. Two games, 0 runs....I think I'll take that.

- Padres get a much needed day off today. My school softball team begins their playoff play Sunday as a #3 seed (team: Scared Hitless) and my club softball team remains winless...FOR NOW! We are on bye this week (Little Blue Pill).

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Injury Update from San Fran

Very quick post here today.

Michael Barret is going to be placed on the 15 day DL after hearing a "pop" in his throwing elbow in yesterday's 8-4 win against the Giants. The Padres are not ruling out a ligament tear which, if that is the case, will likely shelve Barrett for the season. Fingers crossed here. The Padres have recalled Colt Morton from Double-A San Antonio. This is likely to mean more playing time for Josh Bard and will put an early test to the Padres supposedly strong farm system of catchers.

The "mystery smudge" on Peavy's right hand has become somewhat of a national story. Rome is Burning and PTI discussed it yesterday and now it appears that umpires will be paying special attention to Jake on the mound. To me this remains a non-issue as it appeared to be no more than dirt and rosin but, in the era of baseball in which we find ourselves it is no surprise that any thing out of the ordinary is being analyzed to this degree.

AGon went 4-5 yesterday! And against Matt Cain which is no small feat! Well done AGon.

Road trip continues tonight in San Fran. I will miss the game as I have an appointment with one Mr. Bruce Springsteen in Anaheim. Baby, I was Born to Run!

Sunday, April 6, 2008

One Week In, 25 to Go

If you follow me on Twitter then you may have been aware that this weekend I was in Las Vegas. Now, while it happened to be Final Four weekend, that had little to do with why I was in Vegas.

Now, I thought I would pass along the Sports Book at the Stratosphere line on the Padres winning the World Series. Vegas has them at 22-1 to win the World Series, with NL teams such as the Cubs, Mets, Dodgers, D-Backs, and Phillies with better odds. Just an FYI.

I was able to catch some of the Padres game on Saturday and boy am I glad I did. Peavy looked unbelievable on Saturday with a biting slider and from what I read 18 change-ups.

Now, am I excited that Peavy went all 9-innings? Of course. Last year coming out of the All-Star Break the bullpen got rocked and part of that I think can be attributed the amount of innings they have on their arms. That said, I'm not sure how to feel about a 116 pitch inning from the ace of the staff in the first week of April. I lived in Chicago for 3 years while Dusty Baker was the manager and I watched him overwork two of the greatest young pitchers in the NL at the time: Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. There are literally dozens of stories of pitchers that "could have been." In recent years, injury issues involving Francisco Liriano and Felix Hernandez are most notable to me.

This isn't to say that I think Peavy is going to join that group. There is a school of thought that says that pitch counts are over-rated. Supposedly, Dice-K threw 300 pitches IN BETWEEN starts in Japan. So maybe this is nothing. Let me just say that 116 pitch outing in early April on a young arm makes me nervous.

The other Peavy issue from Saturday was the mysterious "smudge" on his hand. Here is a pic of what I'm talking about:
This reminds many of the infamous Kenny Rogers World Series "smudge." Here's what Peavy had to say about it:

"I laughed, to be honest with you. Anybody that wants to check me, feel free. There’s nothing on my hands that’s not supposed to be. I thought it was funny that it was such a big deal. I’ve got no problems with anytime anybody needs to check me.

"I can’t imagine my hands being that dirty. That being said, your hand doesn’t look clean when you’re out there. Obviously I pick up rosin, pick up dirt, I do hit. I found it hard to believe my hand was that … there’s no way. I laughed.

"There’s no way you could have a foreign substance on your hand that’s black. I don’t know what you could put on your hand. My whole hand was covered, the picture I saw. Wouldn’t that come off on a ball? How could you throw a ball with pine tar on your hand?

"I’m not out there cheating, that’s the bottom line.''


Hoffman Issues

The Padres ended up dropping two of three from LA despite tremendous pitching performances by CY on Sunday. Hoffman was tagged with the loss on Sunday by giving up a lead-off walk to Russell Martin, who advanced to second on a ground out and scored on an RBI single without a run.

A lot can be said about this game. Giles costing the Padres a run on a base-running gaffe, taking advantage of runners in scoring position with less than 2 outs. But I would be lying if I said I'm not concerned about Hoffman. His stuff I have faith in. The change-up looks as filthy as it ever did and his fastball looks to have a few more MPH on it. At this point, I'm beginning to wonder how his psyche is holding up. Hoffman has always been one of if not the best closers at moving on from a blown save. However, in the last 6 games (dating back to last year's series in Milwaukee) Hoffman has blown 3 saves and was tagged with the loss on Sunday (in a non-save situation).

Next to Tony Gwynn, Hoffman is my favorite All-Time Padre and I refuse to lose faith. That being the case, it is very hard as a fan to watch one of your favorite players struggle like this. If Hoffman's psyche can stay in tack, I firmly believe that Hoffy will still save 40 games and be the closer by the end of the season. But right now, you have to wonder what his head space is like right now.

Upcoming:

For those who aren't aware, San Francisco was awarded a Double-A team and they are called the Giants. The Padres go to visit them for three games starting Monday and then, mercifully, the Padres will get a day off on Thursday.

Friday, April 4, 2008

A Wolf in Pads Clothing

6 innings and 1 earned run from your number 4 starter? I'd say you'd take that everyday and twice on Sunday! Randy Wolf made his Padres debut yesterday and did exactly that. Very encouraging.

But not as encouraging as seeing Hell's Bells played a little over 12 hours after Hoffman had blown the save against the Astros the night before. For the doubters, Hoffman went 1-2-3, all lazy groundouts.

Every year fans in San Diego yell and scream that Kevin Towers won't spend money, won't get high-profile players. Last season, KT brought in Scott Hairston, an afterthought in many people's minds, including some of the Padres. All Hairston has done since is hit 8 HR in 87 at-bats. Between Randy Wolf (ex-Dodger) and Hairston (ex-DBacks), I think the Padres have found a new strategy...take the enemies weapons!

Speaking of the enemies, the Dodgers head to town. With the way the NL West is shaping up, every inter-division series is huge. Germano goes tonight, Peav on Saturday and CY on Sunday and you have to like your chances when your sending those arms out there.

Finally, Lake Elsinore Storm (A) opened their season last night by retiring number 22 in honor of Jake Peavy. Jim Edmunds got the start on his rehab assignment, going 0-3.

That's all for now. Don't forget to answer the poll question and I'll see you back here on Sunday for a recap of the Dodger series.

OK I lied, one more thing:

This season marks the first year the Padres have introduced a "Frequent Friar" program. Before, the program was called the Compadres Club and all one had to do was swipe a card at each game and they would accumulate points which were good for rewards. Pretty cool, FREE program. NOW, the program is not free and only rewards the amount you spend not the number of games attended. Gaslamp Ball has a great post about this and I second there thoughts. I call shenaigans on this program. BRING BACK COMPADRES!

http://www.gaslampball.com/

Thursday, April 3, 2008

A Few Pics from Opening Night


So its only two pictures but I was relegated to taking them with a phone so bare with me.
Randy Wolf makes his Padres debut this afternoon as the Padres try to start the season 3-1 and erase the taste of last night's lost from our minds. Enjoy the game!

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Opening Series vs Houston

Well, the 2008 campaign is underway.

Here's a rundown of Opening Day from the view about 10 feet to the right of the Western Metal Building in the upper deck.

- Settle down with the beer prices Petco! $9 for a premium beer, $8.50 for a domestic. Yikes

- There is nothing, and I mean nothing, like the Garlic Fries at Petco. It has been a long winter without you Garlic Fries.

- So, I'm sitting in Sect. 327 in the second row. In front of the first row is about a 50 ft drop. In front of me in the first row is a 4 year old girl which seems to have no problem hanging on the railing, jumping on her seat, and all in all giving me a panic attack. No worries, her mom was as calm as can be, enjoying her beer and chatting with friends.

- Checked out the block party for Opening Day, pretty cool to add some festivities to the neighborhood. Had a distinct Wrigleyville feel.

- Onto the game: Peavy, after a shaky first inning, seemed to settle in. The guy threw a shutout, how much more can you ask for? How about 2 RBI to help his cause? Some areas of concern, the Padres left 12 runners on, had double digit hits and only 4 runs to show for it.

- PMac looked pretty good at the plate in the first two games (NOTE: with Wandy Rodriguez pitching tonight, PMac was given the night off as a left-handed hitter.)

- Wednesday night the bats came to life with Adrian going yard (after narrowly missing on a home run Opening Night. That Michael Bourne can run!) Scott Hairston is swinging a hot bat right now and I love the approach Kouz is taking at the plate.

- Some obvious concerns: 1) Heath Bell was nowhere to be seen tonight in an obvious set-up situation. I thought it was odd when Bell came in on Opening Day in a 4-0 game considering the concern the team had of his workload last year. 2) of potentially bigger concern? Hoffman, after looking great in Game 2, blew his first save of the season. It was an odd sequence. Hoffman got the first two batters out, relatively easily. Then an inexcusable walk to Jose Cruz Jr., a line drive by Hunter Pence JUUUUSSSSTT out of the reach of Adrian at first and then a 3-1 pitch to Berkman that was simply grooved right down the middle. A 6-5 win became a 9-6 loss in the matter of moments.

Now, one can only assume that tomorrow on 1090 and in the UT the Hoffman Haters will be out in force. Calls saying he's done will no doubt rain down tomorrow. And I would be lying if I don't get a bit nervous these days when I see Hoffman in there. But I know that his change-up is working (see Game 2...filthy) and tonights game was a bit of an anomaly. Count me as a Hoffman Believer. Look, you don't step on Superman's Cape and you don't tell a future Hall of Famer and the second most prominent player in your franchises history that he's done. He tells you. He's earned it.

Discovered today that we are being linked by Ducksnorts.com! Great website about the Padres as well with a TON of statistical analysis. Cool stuff, check it out.

Final thought. Thought it was very classy of the Friar Fans to give Geoff Blum, Doug Brocail and Jose Cruz Jr. and nice round of applause on Opening Night. Wouldn't mind seeing more fans at the games though! It's not that cold San Diego, let's go!