Sunday, April 1, 2012

MLB Prop Bets 2012

If you follow this blog or its related Twitter feed, you may notice that I like sports gambling. I like doing it, though my trips to Vegas are fewer and farther between these days. But I like knowing what the odds are, how the odds shift based on various pieces of information coming out. And I love me some props. Prop bets are both fun and sometimes goofy (this past Super Bowl had a prop for how many times Giselle Bundchen would be shown during the game). Last year I wrote the first annual Left Coast Bias MLB Prop Post.

Last year I went 4-4. Respectable, but we can do better.

As always, this is for entertainment purposes only.

Who Will Hit Most HR's in 2012?
My Pick: Matt Kemp 18/1
Why? Kemp finished 3rd last year in MLB in HR with 39. This was also good enough for best in the National League. Despite that, you are getting 18/1 for him to lead the league this year. While Bautista has won this two years in a row now, getting 18/1 on a player as good as Kemp is a value bet.

Adrian Gonzalez BA O/U .305
My Pick: Over
Why? Adrian Gonzalez saw a 40 point increase in BA in his first year in Boston. While his power did not see the uptick many predicted, Gonzalez still proved he was one of the best hitters in baseball. Caution however, that prior to last year that last time Gonzalez hit over .300 was 2006. That being said, I'll take my chances with the smaller ballpark and the protection throughout the lineup.

Justin Verlander SO O/U 225.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Here is Verlander's last three seasons strikeout totals since the Tigers stopped limiting his innings: 269, 219, 250. Once out of three seasons he went under, and that time he only went under by 6 SO. The two seasons he went over he went WAY over. I'll bank on those seasons.

Matt Kemp O/U HR 33.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Bautista hit 43 HR's last year to lead MLB. If I'm picking Kemp to do that this year, I have to believe he goes over 33.5.

Cameron Maybin Total SB O/U 34.5
My Pick: Under
Why? Maybin stole 40 bases last season. His previous high in the Majors? 9. We know Maybin can run. We know the Padres like to run. But 35 stolen bases is a ton. More a hunch then anything though wouldn't be shocked if Maybin matched 40 again.

Huston Street Total Saves O/U 30.5
My Pick: Under
Why? Andrew. Cashner. Whether Street is traded or not, I think there is a better than outside shot that Cashner is the closer by the end of the season. Street has been struggling in Spring Training. The argument for the over is, of course, the fact that the Padres don't play many high scoring games. Meaning they have ample chances for saves. It's just a matter of who will receive those saves.

San Diego Padres Regular Season Wins O/U 73.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Because I'm a sucker. But seriously. The Padres won 71 games last season despite the Brad Hawpe and Ryan Ludwick experience, and sudden down year from Mat Latos, and essentially no offense. However, their Pythogorean W/L was 79-83. This year, this team has the chance to be sneaky decent. A lot of young, highly touted young players. If Headley and Venable breakout, if Maybin continues to improve, if Luebke is the ace people think he can be, if Alonso is as advertised at first, etc etc. In a worst case scenario, this team wins 71 games like last year. Considering how many close games they play, sheer luck could increase a 71 win season to a 74 win season. A few things break the right way and this is a .500 team primed for 2013.

And finally...

Odds to Win World Series: San Diego Padres 70/1

Sometimes you have to put your money where your mouth is. You just never know:

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