Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent

This point can't be made more clearly than I'm about to make it right now.

This is not a defense of the Padres actions (or lack thereof) of this winter.
Nor is this a complaint.

And it's not a complaint because it's December 8th. For reference sake, the Mat Latos trade, which caught many by surprise, happened on December 17th.

The sense amongst Padres fans (or at least the small section of fans in which I have seen, read or interacted with) is that this is just the same old Padres. Same penny-pinchers despite the fact that they now have $1.5 billion in television revenue to work with. The evidence they point to is multi-layered:

1) The Padres did not offer Kuroda $17 million as was reported by the NY Post. This, in and of itself, was a good thing and not many would argue that point. What was more concerning to some is the impression that the Padres COULDN'T offer that amount.

2) The Padres failed to land Dan Haren. Haren had been rumored as a player that may fit well with the Padres. But, as has been reported multiple places, including via Corey Brock, the Padres are steering clear of health risk. Between back issues and lingering hip issues, Dan Haren was far from a low risk option from a health perspective. At $13 million, that price was likely too high for San Diego considering those risk.

3) Reports came out that the Padres were looking at a payroll of $70 million for 2013. While this is an increase of nearly $15 million from last year, it fars short of what many expected with a new ownership group and new influx of television revenue. It also leaves little room for maneuvering after the extensions to Street and Quentin (among others) are accounted for.

4) Reports that Byrnes was caught off guard by the market value of pitchers like Haren, Blanton and, presumably now, McCarthy. I can't say I blame him too much. $13 million for Haren was higher than expected. Then again, the Nationals gave Jayson Werth a $126 million contract for 7 years.

As it stands now, the Padres primary target this off-season has been starting pitching. That need has been made clear by all involved and plugged in with the team. And considering the amount of injuries the pitching staff suffered in 2012 (11 pitchers hit the DL last season including relief pitching. This includes season-ending injuries to 3/5ths of the rotation followed by season ending injuries to 2 of the replacements for those 3/5ths) you can see why the Padres would want to stockpile pitching.

But it is worth bearing in mind that in 2013 the Padres expected to see the return of Cory Luebke, potentially as early as June 1. Per Bill James via Fangraphs, Luebke is predicted to make 24 starts Is that optimistic? Probably. One would assume the Padres will take a version of the Nationals plan in dealing with Luebke coming off Tommy John.

But he will return. As will Cashner. (We'll get to that injury on a later post. But...well, F). Not to mention Casey Kelly, Max Fried, Robbie Erlin, and Keyvius Sampson, the future of Padres pitching looks promising.

I'm not going to sit here and tell you that this winter thus far has been thrilling as a Padres fan. PED suspensions, hunting accidents and Jason Marquis does not fire up the fan base. Do I think the team is where it needs to be right now to compete? No. But I think they are closer than some who would scream for the Padres to make a deal would believe.

Let's wait until the off-season is over before we make broad declarations on how well the Padres did in the off-season and whether Byrnes is incompetent.

Make a deal that makes sense. Both for 2013 and beyond. But don't spend money just because you have money.

The Promise of a Brighter Future

The Mat Latos trade nearly got me into quite a bit of trouble yesterday.

There I was, trying to enjoy a nice day out with my wife, finishing up some Christmas shopping and grabbing lunch. Pleasant and completely removed from any Padres rumors or hot stove talk. As we are browsing through some shop in Downtown Pasadena, I check my email from my phone. Not for any reason really, just habit.

Hey, an email from the Padres. What 50% sale are they pushing now...wait, what?

PADRES ACQUIRE EDINSON VOLQUEZ AND THREE TOP PROSPECTS FROM REDS

Wow. That's a substantial haul for the Padres. Must have given up something major. But who? I had to read on. So I kept "browsing," my nose tucked very firmly in my phone. Then I got to this: "...in exchange for right-handed pitcher Mat Latos."

Double wow.

I had to know more. More importantly, as is so much a part of our information culture these days, I had to know what the reaction on Twitter was. Knowing full well that the Latos' are prominent on social media sites and the amount of passion Padres fans have for Latos (#TEAMLATOS being a common hashtag on days he starts). But I was shopping and supposed to be enjoying a nice day out with my wife. I can't just ignore her to read what my Twitter feed says about this trade.

But I had to.

I'm pretty luck in my relationship. My wife is a baseball fan. She gets it. Maybe not to my more obsessive level, but she gets it. So I very casually bring it up. "Oh wow, the Padres traded Latos." Her reaction? "Wow, really? Are you going to write a post about it?"

She gets it.

So I briefly scan Twitter. I don't know if I've ever seen a more substantial schism between baseball experts and scribes (who thought the Padres fleeced Cincinnati) and Padres fans (who saw this as yet another popular Padres player being shipped off for unknown commodities).

I am in no way an expert on baseball prospects, certainly not ones from a team not named San Diego. But I know 4 players for 1 player is a lot. I know that nearly every expert who does know about teams farm system seem to love this move. The Padres farm system, already considered a Top 5 system heading into 2012, is better. The Padres likely have their starting first baseman now in Alonso, they have a bit of a surplus now in catching prospects and a potential replacement for Heath Bell. This all ignores Volquez, who has quality in him somewhere if he can just find it again. Now he moves to resurrection island for pitchers in Petco Park. All in all, this seems like a win.

It's not fun trading away star players. And frankly, the Padres right now are in short supply of players that a casual fan will recognize come Opening Day 2012. But Mat Latos wasn't untouchable, clearly, and never should have been. He has had stretches of brilliance, but stretches of mediocrity. He may or may not have maturity issues (a topic I will completely ignore, except to say it was mentioned prevalently yesterday when this trade was reported, from multiple sources). But what was clear was that Mat Latos was not in Josh Byrnes long term plans. In what has been the clearest example yet, the players Brynes covets are not the same that Hoyer did.

I'm not distraught over this trade. I wasn't when I first heard about it, I'm far less now. The Padres got a huge haul. They gave up a volatile but talented pitcher. But they received in return a lot of pieces that, I hope, will lead to long term success down the road. Or maybe it's because I've always been indifferent to Mat Latos. Always rooted for him, always liked him. But I wasn't enamored with him the way others were, or the way I was with Peavy. It seems folly in today's modern baseball world to fall in love with starting pitchers. To injury prone, to in demand, to on the move.

In either way, I slept on this trade and I like it more than I did yesterday, and I liked it yesterday. Best of luck to Mat in Cincinnati (outside of 6 games). Now, with 3 possible first base options, we wait for the second shoe to drop.

Is Rizzo next?

The Curious Case of the Padres No-Hitter

Mat Latos was dealing last night. No other way to say it.

He was dealing so much, that for a moment, brief though it may have been, a familiar thought creeped through the minds of Padres fans.

"Is tonight the night?"

It wasn't, again. No no-hitter for the Padres. But for 5 innings last night, Latos was throwing as well as any Padres pitcher has this year. He was no-hitting the Cubs (a perfect game in fact until a walk in the 5th).

Then a triple by Coleman (the opposing pitcher of all people!) and that was that. You might ask yourself, "isn't the 5th inning a little early to talk no-hitter?" And you'd be right. It is. But so it goes for a franchise and a fan base that has been deprived such a feat for their entire existence. 42 seasons, 0 no-hitters.

Since the Padres inaugural Major League season of 1969, there have been 104 no-hitters. That's 3.5 no-hitters per current Major League team (yes, I realize the math isn't perfect as their has been expansion since 1969, but the point remains the same). Yet, never once, have the stars aligned and the ball bounced right and we get to see a Padres catcher hoist a pitcher in celebration of a no-hitter.

Not that the Padres haven't been close.

Twice the Padres have been one out away, though even that stat requires an asterisk. The two:
July 18, 1972 Padres vs Phillies. Steve Arlin held the Phillies hitless with 2 outs in the 9th inning before Tom Hutton, a career .248 hitter, singled to break up not only the no-hitter but also the shutout. The Padres went on to win 5-1.

July 9, 2011 Padres vs Dodgers. Aaron Harang went 6 strong innings but was pulled after 95 pitches. The Padres bullpen of Spence, Qualls and Adams kept the Dodgers scoreless, and hitless, into the 9th inning before Gregerson gave up a double to Uribe and the game-winning single to Navarro. The problem here? The Padres were shutout through 9. Which created the nearly untenable possibility for those of us desperate for a no-hitter of having the Padres pitch 9 hitless innings, and then have it blown in extras due to a lack of offense.

It seems impossible that the Padres could exist for as long as they have without accomplishing this feat. It's more impossible when I think of the pitchers that have pitched for San Diego (Randy Jones, Andy Benes, Andy Ashby, Jake Peavy).

But I know one day it's coming. Until then, anytime a Padres pitcher gets into the 5th without giving up a run, I'll think myself "is tonight the night?"

And one of these days, it will be.

One day. One day.

Who's Next? The Impending Drought of Retired Numbers

This Sunday something very special and very rare is going to take place. As anyone who even casually follows the Padres must know by now, Trevor Hoffman, MLB's All-Time Saves Leader, will have his #51 retired. Hoffman's number will become the 6th number retired by the Padres, joining the ranks of Tony Gwynn, Steve Garvey, Dave Winfield, Randy Jones and of course Jackie Robinson. It is rarified air no matter how you look at it or what your personal opinions are of the who has been bestowed with this honor (we will save that for another post).

No doubt in the next 48 hours, blog posts will pop up reminiscing on his career. In fact, I would think it would be a safe bet that you will find just such a post on this site in the coming days. But I'm not here to talk about that today. Nor am I here to debate the merits of who is retired.

I'm here to look at the future.

In the past 7 years the Padres will have retired the numbers of arguably their two most iconic players. I was born in 1980 so I can't speak of the '84 team with any personal knowledge, but in my lifetime there have been only two Padres players that have reached "icon" status. Tony Gwynn is obviously one. Trevor Hoffman is the other.

But who is next?

Who's number will be retired after Trevor's? Or perhaps this is the better question: is that player currently in the Padres system at any level? Let's take a extended look into the future of who could be next to find their number on top of the batter's eye at Petco Park and what former players came close to that distinction (in my opinion).

First, the former players:

1) Nate Colbert

The Case For Him: The first true "star" the Padres franchise ever had. He was selected by the Padres in the Expansion Draft of 1969 by San Diego, leading the team in home runs that year. He made 3 All-Star appearances as a Padre as and he continues to be the Padres All-Time Home Run leader...

The Case Against Him: ...at 163 HRs. Colbert played only 5 years for the Padres though his entire career only lasted approximately 8 years. His numbers, while great for a team that was predictably bad for an expansion team, were not great by any other matrix.

2) Ken Caminiti

The Case For Him: The Padres have only had one MVP winner in their history. And it's Caminiti. He was also instrumental in the team's 1998 World Series run.

The Case Against Him: Pretty strong case here, sadly. The story of Ken Caminiti is a tragic one to me. Full of substance abuse and admitted steroid use during his MVP season, tarnishing that accomplishment forever.

3) Garry Templeton

The Case For Him: One of the most popular players in Padres history, he was one of the emotional catalyst of the 1984 World Series team. And, if I'm not mistaken, I believe he is the longest tenured SS the Padres have had, playing for 9 seasons.

The Case Against Him: He's not Ozzie Smith. The Padres traded the Wizard to St. Louis for Garry Templeton, a lopsided trade no matter how popular the player is.
*Where are they now? Did you know Templeton is now a minor league manager? Me either until today. See, you learned something.

4) Goose Gossage

The Case For Him: Talk about getting the most out of a short stint. Goose only played 3 season with San Diego yet left an indelible mark on the franchise. Still remembered fondly in San Diego, Goose is credited with creating the "modern closer." And of course, memorable saves in the '84 NLCS. And he is in the Hall of Fame...

The Case Against Him: ...as a Yankee. Let's move on.

Now, some up and comers. These are highly touted players in the Padres organization who MAY have an outside chance of one day having their number retired. Keep in mind, not saying any of these players is there yet, but potential MIGHT be there. For these guys, no "Case Against Them" for, what I would think are, obvious reasons.

1) Chase Headley

The Case For Him: The Savior! The Padres traded Kevin Kouzmanoff in part to make room for this highly touted prospect. Has become a consistent contact hitter though power is lacking.

2) Cameron Maybin

The Case For Him: Arguably the most exciting player on the Padres right now, Maybin has all the tools to be a perennial All-Star for many years to come. Not to mention the Gold Gloves he will no doubt win throughout his career. Assuming he stays in San Diego long term, I would put Maybin as the favorite right now of everyone on this list.

3) Mat Latos

The Case for Him: Ace talent but has struggled in 2011. His struggles not entirely his fault as he has had little run support, nevertheless, Latos has not been the dominate pitcher he was in the first half of 2010. But that talent exists.

4) Anthony Rizzo

The Case for Him: Here is where we get into the long shots (not that all of these aren't longshots but you know what I mean). The argument for these players is potential based only. If you read scouting reports on Rizzo, the overwhelming response you read is how this guy is going to hit and hit a ton. If that's true and he is able to replace and make fans forget about Adrian Gonzalez one day...

5) Jedd Gyorko

The Case For Him: Obliterated the California High Single A league before getting promoted (rightfully) to San Antonio. Predictably his numbers have dipped somewhat, though still quite respectable considering the park in San Antonio.


Honorable Mentions in the distant, distant Future: Cory Spangenberg, Reymond Fuentes, Casey Kelly, Austin Hedges

But, in all likelihood, the next retired number will come from a player not even in their system at the moment. So look around your local Little League fields as somewhere out there is a kid who will one day experience what Trevor Hoffman will on Sunday.

And enjoy Sunday for all it's worth. It's going to be a long time before we get to do this again.

The Long Road Home

The logical part of my brain knew that this day would happen.

Mat Latos wasn't going to go winless for the rest of his career.




But boy, it kind of started to feel that way. I don't know that I have ever seen someone with more pure, raw talent struggle as much as Latos did in these past 12 starts. Sure, not all of these losses were his fault. Poor run support or defense would foil him more times than I'm sure he wants to remember.

But something seemed off. His velocity was down, his location was off and his confidence seemed to be shrinking with every passing start without a win. I had originally planned a whole post about "What Was Wrong With Latos" in which I was going to bring up the workload increase and the loss time during Spring Training. I was going to write (and did via Twitter) how I thought Latos should go to Tucson and build up his arm and make up the loss time from Spring. Well, we can shelve all that for now.

Colorado is hardly a place to go to right the ship as a pitcher. But the Padres 8-2 win over Colorado to move to .500 on this road trip marks the first win for Mat Latos since 09/07/10 (a win that, at the time, put San Diego 1 game ahead of SF for the NL West division title) seems bigger somehow, more than a regular season win in May over a division foe.

"It s a struggle no one wants to go through. It's good to get it out of the way." - Mat Latos

Whether this is a turning point of the season remains to be seen. Perhaps that's reading too much into one win. But for Latos I have to think this was more than just some win in May. This exercised demons. The 0-10 monkey is officially off his back.

The pitching has been suspect on this road trip; the defense not much better. The offense is clearly showing signs of life after a month of futility that defied any statistical measure you could come up with. It helps when you play games in Miller Park and Coors against teams with leaky bullpens.

The Mat Latos losing streak had become symbolic of the struggles of the 2011 Padres. At least for me. It encapsulated everything that was going wrong with the Padres. Yes, the offense was going to struggle with the absence of Adrian, but it would be ok because the pitching and defense should be as stellar as the 2010 version. But the offense was worst than anyone could had expected, the defense mediocre and now the ace of the staff couldn't win a game.

But this game is as much about confidence as anything. You can see that in Hawpe, who has been one of the hottest hitters in the NL since the end of April.

And now, hopefully, we will see it in Mat Latos.

Roster Moves Begin to Shape Padres 25-man Roster

Busy news day for the Padres. A quick rundown of today's moves as we inch closer to Opening Day:


1) The biggest news of the day was the trade for Alberto Gonzalez (so look forward to a lot of double takes when you see in the box score "A. Gonzalez"). Padres traded Minor League pitcher Erik Davis, who was 14-3 with a 3.52 in 27 starts with Lake Elsinore, San Antonio, and Portland. This shores up one of the most glaring holes heading toward Opening Day in finding a defensive specialist to act as backup INF/Utility.

2) As feared/expected, Mat Latos will start the season on the DL.

3) Cory Luebke has been told he has made the team. Considering the Padres have 3 off days in the first 8 days and Latos on the DL, this may be short lived. Worth noting, he was used in one inning of relief work today so he could be used as reliever vs starter...for now.

4) Cedric Hunter, OF, has made the Opening Day roster. Hunter, 23, was the Padres top ranked prospect in 2006. Get to know your new backup OF here.

5) Aaron Harang was named the Padres home opener starter.

So, as you can see, a busy day for the Padres. More decisions sure to follow tomorrow.

Finally, some housekeeping. If you are on Facebook, don't forget to "Like" the Official Left Coast Bias page. Link is to the left.

Latos "Bewildered" by Sudden Shoulder Pain

Nothing is going to get me off my high of watching Arizona run Duke out of the Honda Center in the 2nd half of last nights Sweet 16 game. In fact, for fun, here you go:












But today's news out of Peoria comes awfully close. Per Corey Brock via Twitter (follow Corey @FollowthePadres):
"Mat Latos won't start tomorrow. He's got a sore shoulder."
Followed by:
"Bud Black said Latos, who pitched Monday, complained of soreness Wednesday. "It just sort of popped up," Black said."

These are things you don't want to hear about the presumed ace of your staff, one week before the season starts. Raising additional fears is the relatively poor spring Latos has had in Peoria and the Verducci Effect.

Regarding the Verducci Effect. I don't know that I adhere to it or not. But it is, at minimum, worth noting that in the past two years, Latos has seen an increase of at least 60 IP in each of those seasons. So whether you buy into the Verducci Effect or not, the struggles at the end of 2010, the struggles in Spring and now the shoulder soreness are all pieces of a very concerning puzzle.

But hey, at least we have LeBlanc.

Blerg.

A Successful Season in 2011?

Success is in the eye of the beholder. And arguably, your idea of success is dependent on what view you take of a situation.




For example:

The 2010 Padres won 90 games after winning 75 games the year before = Success

The 2010 Padres had the best record in the National League in late August and missed the playoffs = Not Success

Mat Latos went 14-10 with an ERA of 2.92 in 2010 = Success

Mat Latos went 1-5 with an ERA of 5.66 in September of 2010 = Not Success


Success. Virtually impossible to define and impossible to agree on. Ask 100 Padres fans whether the 2010 season was a successful season, and chances are you would get a near 50/50 split of yes and no. And both sides are probably right. To a point.

So how do we define success for the 2011 San Diego Padres?

For one, the expectations have been risen by the 2010 season. Not a bad thing until you look at the overhaul the Padres went through. Only one infield position will be manned by the same player as last year (Chase Headley-3B). The trade of arguably the best player the Padres have had in the past decade leaves a hole not only in the lineup but on the defensive side of the ball. Major pieces of the bullpen (Muijica and Webb) and starting rotation (Chris Young and Kevin Correia) are gone.

In place of these major changes, the Padres front office has built a team that is perhaps more athletic and more balanced. Balance looks to be the buzzword surrounding this team this year and if you haven't heard it enough yet, just wait. But despite the PR spin of terms like "balance" there is truth to that. In a previous post, I compared the current middle infield vs the middle infield revolving door the Padres used in 2010

I'm all in on Bartlett and Hudson.

I'm also all in on Harang. Maybe I've had a bit to much Kool-Aid but a strikeout pitcher who's Achilles Heel is homeruns moves to Petco Park? I'll take my chances.

Questions abound, of course. Cameron Maybin is a great fit for the cavernous center field of Petco Park. A guy with 5 tool potential but right hits like Pedro Serrano (all straight balls, nothing that moves).



Hawpe is a downgrade defensively at first, there's no debate about that. But how much of a downgrade and how much will that hurt and infield that, overall I think will be better defensively. Mat Latos has struggled in Peoria so far this year and there is some concern that the massive workload increase from 2008-2010 is a debt that is coming due.

So what is success for the 2011 San Diego Padres? I think its fair to say that there is perhaps more excitement internally about where the team is heading, with the additions of Anthony Rizzo and Casey Kelly, then where they are. That doesn't mean 2011 is a lost season as we all bide our time waiting for the first basemen of the future to get here (and while we are on the subject, how about we temper some expectations this time. Less "savior" talk would do a world of good. Yes, Rizzo is having a great Spring. But so did Kyle Blanks last Spring. Chase Headley has fallen victim to the otherworldly expectations when he was touted as the "savior."). It does mean that, perhaps more than any other season in recent memory, getting a handle of the 2011 Padres before the season starts is near impossible.

But they still have great pitching. Outside of first base, they are stronger defensively. The back end of their bullpen remains in tact and they have a lineup sprinkled with players who have huge upside (Maybin, Venable). Plus a division where there is no clear favorite (though I think if you win a World Series, you are the de-facto favorite).

So success for the 2011 Padres to me is simply this: be competitive. Winning 90 games is hard and probably unrealistic. Winning 82-85 games? More than doable. That win total puts the Padres in the thick of the NL West into August and at that point, as we are all too familiar with, anything can happen.

But keep this in mind. Success can be defined in a number of ways and our definition of it will change throughout the season. At the beginning of last year, I thought .500 would be a success. By the All-Star game, a division title was success. Looking back on the season, despite not making the playoffs, 90 wins to me was a success.

5 Thoughts on 2011 Padres

Super Bowl XLV ended the NFL season, crowning the Green Bay Packers champions of the league.

But for those with diamonds in their mind and the smell of cut grass in their nose, yesterday's big game signified but one thing. Baseball is right around the corner.

The San Diego Padres first full workout is scheduled for Feb. 19th. But the universally accepted "start" of Spring Training happens this Sunday, Feb. 13th, when pitchers and catchers will report to Peoria, AZ to share parking and locker rooms with their arch-enemies, the Seattle Mariners! (ok, seriously, is there a more forced "rivalry" then Mariners vs Padres?) No. No there isn't.)

So, with Spring Training less than a week away, today we look at 5 thoughts/questions/ramblings on the 2011 Padres season.

1) Can this team compete for NL West again?

In a word, yes. Of course they can. Let's take a trip back for a second to February 2010. No publication, journalist, blogger, or talking E-Trade baby believed the Padres could do any better than last in the NL West. Even through my rose colored, homer glasses, I only aspired to a .500 season and perhaps a 3rd place finish. Now, we all know how those prognosticators predictions turned out.

Now, here we are in February 2011 and the same talking heads and scribes are picking a similar fate to the 2011 Padres. Dead last or 4th in the NL West. According to sports gambling site Sportsbook.com, the Padres have the same odds of winning the NL West as the Diamondbacks, at 12/1 (Giants favored at less than 2/1). But why? Because of turnover? The loss of Adrian Gonzalez? Miguel Tejada?

Obviously, the loss of Adrian Gonzalez is a hit. No way around that. But this isn't the NBA. One player does not a team make. I am no sabrematician (is that a term?). For a more in-depth analysis of Adrian's value, I would direct you to http://thesacrificebunt.com/ However, AGon's WAR (Wins Above Replacement Player) was 6.3). Let's now add in Eckstein and Tejada, arguably the two largest departures not named Adrian Gonzalez.

Eckstein: 1.4
Tejada: 1.8 (this number represents only his time in San Diego)

So, in three players the Padres loss 8.5 wins. The three key replacements? Orlando Hudson, Jason Barlett, and Cameron Maybin (obviously I realize Hawpe was brought in to play 1st with potentially having Jorge Cantu sharing time at 1st, more on that in a second).

Orlando Hudson: 0.4 (ok, not great but not terrible)
Jason Bartlett: 1.5
Cameron Maybin: 0.3
Hawpe/Cantu were both 0.0

That totals 2.2 wins. So, basically, the Padres are looking at losing, simply on statistics and on paper, 6 wins from 2010. Equalling 84 wins which was good enough for 3rd place in the NL West.

What do all these numbers mean? I'm not sure, I kind of got lost halfway through. But, my point is, while there has been substantial turnover, that turnover resulted in equal to or better players at key positions, 1st base notwithstanding. And I don't know about you, but in the course of 162 games, there are at least 6 games that turn on bizarro, weird, plays that can only be classified as luck. Denorfia's inside the park ground ball anyone?

What the Padres haven't lost is what was key to them winning 90 games in 2010. Pitching (in my mind, the starting rotation is better than a year ago, more on that soon) and defense, also better with the additions of Maybin, Barlett and O-Dog.

So to make a long story short (too late!), can they match their win total from a year ago? Yes, of course they can.

2) Can Mat Latos hold up for an entire season?

Mat Latos was on his way to what appeared to be a Cy Young type season. In the first half of 2010, Latos went 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA, and 0.96 WHIP. He had also already pitched 106 innings by the All-Star Break. This number already eclipsing the prediction that Fangraphs.com had of 87 IP for Latos. And it had been clear in Spring Training that Latos was going to limited in pitches in 2010, less he become the next Mark Prior. All of which would have been fine had the Padres been cellar dwelling as predicted by the All-Star Game. Which of course they weren't.

Thus, Latos was pushed to be the ace of the staff before he was ready or the team wanted him to be. And his second half numbers reflected that of a pitcher who's previous season high for IP was 122. Latos went 4-6 in the second half of the season, posting a 3.58 ERA with a 1.244 WHIP while increasing his SO/9 from 8.4 to 10.4 (read: more pitches), including losses in his final 5 starts (and yes, his run support was less than stellar during that stretch).

This was a natural and, dare I say with 20/20 vision, a predictable fall-off considering his increase in innings from his previous high of 122. He finished 2010 184 IP.

But now he's done it. Now, he's arm has had the experience of pitching 180+ innings in high stress games. And history is on his side (Mark Prior notwithstanding). Lincecum went from 146 IP and a 4.00 ERA to 227 IP the next year and a 2.62 ERA. Felix Hernandez went from 190 IP in 2007 to 238 IP in 2009, posting a 2.49 ERA.

Small sample size? Sure. But, provided Mat Latos stays healthy, there appears to be no ceiling to his potential and all the reason to believe that the 1st half of 2010 can be carried over to an entire season in 2011.

3) What will the starting rotation look like by September?

2010 Projected Starting Rotation, in March
1) Chris Young
2) Jon Garland
3) Kevin Correia
4) Clayton Richard
5) Mat Latos

2010 Starting Rotation, in September
1) Mat Latos
2) Jon Garland
3) Tim Stauffer
4) Corey Luebke
5) Chris Young (newly off the DL)

The point. It hardly matters what the starting rotation looks like in March. It won't be the same by the end of the year. Injuries, slumps, trades. Any variety of things can mix up the rotation. Perhaps that is no more true then for a team like the Padres, who have so many young pitchers. The Padres added Aaron Harang (a pitcher with a down year but upside who I think will have a rebound year in Petco) and Dustin Moseley. This, coupled with Tim Stauffer, who is finally blossoming into the 1st round draft pick the Padres believed him to be and Clayton Richard (how good does that Peavy trade look now?), and the Padres rotation looks solid.

But what if Richard regresses ala Correia? This is where I believe the strength of the Padres to be. Pitching depth. Last year we got a taste of Luebke and I think we all liked what we saw. And of course, a bit down the road, Casey Kelly is waiting in the wings.

With any luck, the Padres starting rotation by September will include Luebke at minimum. Beyond that, who knows?

4) How many pounds of Garlic Fries will I consume in 2011?

The over/under is at 20.5. Take the over. Way over.

5) Can someone give Chase Headley a day off?

Chase Headley played in 160 games in 2010. There are 162 games in a season. The positive. Tremendous health and and consistently from a key infield position. But this overwork can clearly led to a fall off in production.

Or did it?

He had a tough September, though that could be said for the entire team. But in July and August he hit .300 and .286. This while being bounced around the lineup with no clear natural position in the lineup. Chase Headley will never be the power threat from the 3rd base position that is stereotypical. But if you want power, well friend, you follow the wrong team in the wrong park.

So can he get a day off? The addition of Cantu would seem to indicate that, yes, Buddy Black will not let Headley play 160 games again, keeping him fresh for what we hope is another September run.


Spring is right around the corner. And spring brings about it optimism. Until I see tangible evidence to the contrary, I choose to be optimistic about the 2011 Padres.

Hindsight is 2010

I haven't posted since Opening Day 2009 and I have no idea how much I will continue to post. I stopped for a number of reasons. Studying for the bar, looking for work, moving when I found that work and, frankly, because there are Padres blogs that are better at this then I am. I have no access to any players or media, no partner to post when I forget. Really, just one dude who loves the Padres. And how interesting could that possibly be?

But I felt compelled today to write something. The 2010 season has come to an end. Baseball, perhaps more than any other sport, leaves a melancholy feel when it ends. I love football, but thats a once to twice a week event. Baseball is like school or a job. It is everyday, its a grind and, when a team is chasing down a playoff spot, it can be exhausting to keep up with. So today is weird. No Padres lineup being posted via Twitter today. No debate over who is in CF and who should start vs a LHP. Instead, we are left only with memories and thoughts of "what if?"

Which brings us to the retrospective of 2010. This has become an interesting debate today. How do we all feel about this season? It's a question 29 out of 30 teams have to deal with to varying degrees, but perhaps no team has a more complicated answer then the Padres.

On the one hand are those that seem to revel in negativity. This camp will point to the 10 game losing streak, and the 14-23 record over final 37 games. This is the camp that will constantly remind you how they had a 6.5 game lead on August 25th and that 2nd place in the NL West with no playoffs should not be considered an acceptable season. And this camp isn't wrong. No Padres fan can be honest with themselves without dealing with how the final month of the season went for the Padres. It was brutal and hard to watch at times. At times it felt like watching a runaway train with no way to stop it. And all fans could do is watch, and wonder "what happened?" The what ifs are plenty, and there is no way around that.

But then there is another camp. A camp that will tell you how the Padres were picked to finish last in the NL West. They will remind all of us of how Adrian Gonzalez was to be traded by the deadline and that September would be merely a showcase of Triple and Double A players as all eyes pointed toward 2011. And how this team of $38 million in payroll and one household named player stormed the National League and shocked every expert and most (ok, all) fans. And how, no matter what, they played 162 meaningful games and far exceeded expectations.

I align myself more with this second camp. Of course you can't ignore the disappointment of the last month. Its a tough pill to swallow to be up 6.5 on 8/25 and not be in the playoffs today. Its hard to think that if, instead of a 10-gm losing streak they had only gone 3-7 they would have won the NL West. But, I choose to not erase 6 months of enjoyable baseball simply because the end result wasn't what I wanted or believed it would be. The simple fact is that the 2010 season was the most enjoyable season I've had as a fan of this team since 1998. Sure, they had made the playoffs since then. But watching a team go 82-80 to win the division is hardly enjoyable. Or watching the manager blow out the knee of your starting outfielder because he is a loose cannon in the same game your starting CF gets hurt, not so fun. But this year was fun. And to me, its as simple as that.

What I take away from this season was watching a team that stole bases with reckless abandon, Latos coming into his own and looking like an ace, the bullpen turning 9 inning games into 6 inning games, the Yoda backpack, Miguel Tejada and the "Spotlight", and yes, stumbling on the stretch run. It was all part of the same journey and while I wish the end result was different, as they say, the journey is sometimes more important then the destination.

So, who's heading to Peoria in March 2011?

P.S. As for the future of this blog, we shall see....