Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent

This point can't be made more clearly than I'm about to make it right now.

This is not a defense of the Padres actions (or lack thereof) of this winter.
Nor is this a complaint.

And it's not a complaint because it's December 8th. For reference sake, the Mat Latos trade, which caught many by surprise, happened on December 17th.

The sense amongst Padres fans (or at least the small section of fans in which I have seen, read or interacted with) is that this is just the same old Padres. Same penny-pinchers despite the fact that they now have $1.5 billion in television revenue to work with. The evidence they point to is multi-layered:

1) The Padres did not offer Kuroda $17 million as was reported by the NY Post. This, in and of itself, was a good thing and not many would argue that point. What was more concerning to some is the impression that the Padres COULDN'T offer that amount.

2) The Padres failed to land Dan Haren. Haren had been rumored as a player that may fit well with the Padres. But, as has been reported multiple places, including via Corey Brock, the Padres are steering clear of health risk. Between back issues and lingering hip issues, Dan Haren was far from a low risk option from a health perspective. At $13 million, that price was likely too high for San Diego considering those risk.

3) Reports came out that the Padres were looking at a payroll of $70 million for 2013. While this is an increase of nearly $15 million from last year, it fars short of what many expected with a new ownership group and new influx of television revenue. It also leaves little room for maneuvering after the extensions to Street and Quentin (among others) are accounted for.

4) Reports that Byrnes was caught off guard by the market value of pitchers like Haren, Blanton and, presumably now, McCarthy. I can't say I blame him too much. $13 million for Haren was higher than expected. Then again, the Nationals gave Jayson Werth a $126 million contract for 7 years.

As it stands now, the Padres primary target this off-season has been starting pitching. That need has been made clear by all involved and plugged in with the team. And considering the amount of injuries the pitching staff suffered in 2012 (11 pitchers hit the DL last season including relief pitching. This includes season-ending injuries to 3/5ths of the rotation followed by season ending injuries to 2 of the replacements for those 3/5ths) you can see why the Padres would want to stockpile pitching.

But it is worth bearing in mind that in 2013 the Padres expected to see the return of Cory Luebke, potentially as early as June 1. Per Bill James via Fangraphs, Luebke is predicted to make 24 starts Is that optimistic? Probably. One would assume the Padres will take a version of the Nationals plan in dealing with Luebke coming off Tommy John.

But he will return. As will Cashner. (We'll get to that injury on a later post. But...well, F). Not to mention Casey Kelly, Max Fried, Robbie Erlin, and Keyvius Sampson, the future of Padres pitching looks promising.

I'm not going to sit here and tell you that this winter thus far has been thrilling as a Padres fan. PED suspensions, hunting accidents and Jason Marquis does not fire up the fan base. Do I think the team is where it needs to be right now to compete? No. But I think they are closer than some who would scream for the Padres to make a deal would believe.

Let's wait until the off-season is over before we make broad declarations on how well the Padres did in the off-season and whether Byrnes is incompetent.

Make a deal that makes sense. Both for 2013 and beyond. But don't spend money just because you have money.

Grand(al) Illusions

By David Israel
Guest Contributor

It certainly feels like the walls are coming in.

Even if it is just the fences, the last few weeks seem to be a telling microcosm of Padres happenings. The 2012 season just… was. We entered with low expectations, and while Savior’s 5th place MVP season went mostly unnoticed outside of the NL West, we made headlines with the fences debate and a new owner. Yet, things felt… stagnant. We were unsurprised by the early season failure, and too embroiled over the lack of TV coverage (which is still absurd) to notice the second half surge, taking only enough notice of the foundational blocks we’d waited so long to be in place to give us hope for 2013, where a core of Headley, Alonso, Grandal, and half of Quentin might lead us to respectability.

And then the news hit. And it felt… deflating, yet unsurprising, somehow. When the headline alone can cause even the most devout to lose faith…

#LTF

— Jodi Paranal (@jodes0405) November 7, 2012

Thanks for letting me steal this off your twitter page, @Jodes0405.

…it’s probably not good.

The apathy scares me most; that after attending 18 MLB games last year, 14 at PETCO, that it was possible to just be resigned to the mediocrity we have seen year after year, unsurprised when the next great thing for your team gives you reason to question their potential.

Fortunately the offseason does not pause, moving daily towards Pitchers and Catchers. We get to ask if it is spring training yet and speculate about the hot stove season. And, on that note, a wish list for the 2013 Padres:

1) Bring back Mike Adams. The bullpen, still stocked with serviceable pitchers, has lost most of its personality. Gone are the goofy Bell, the swag Adams used to bring to the Penitentiary, and even Frieri’s little kid smile.
2) Grady Sizemore. As much as we’ve come to love Denorfia’s dive, a low-risk incentive laden contract for Sizemore could work. And it would increase female attendance in right field by about 800%. Anything to get those guys who think Yankee Stadium roll call is OK to be less of a presence out there.
3) Brandon McCarthy/Francisco Liriano: McCarthy for his arm and humor, Liriano as a cheap back of the rotation option, where he can be (potentially?) protected by modified bastardized Petco dimensions.
4) Faith. And fewer Tommy John surgeries.

91 Days until pitchers and catchers, when our faith will be renewed again.

Dis

In Defense (Sort Of) of PEDs...But Not of Grandal

There are two very distinct opinions I have on this entire story regarding Yasmani Grandal's suspension. They dovetail nicely but it is important that both be given equal time so as to avoid in confusion about what I'm saying. So, let's break this down in two sections. First, regarding Grandal himself.

Part I

I like Yasmani Grandal. What's not to like? The mohawk. The energy. The power from both sides of the plate. Aw, the power. You cannot help but now question, even if its only a slight question, as to whether or not what we saw in 2012 was real. In 60 games, he hit .297 with 8 HRs and 36 RBI. A WAR of 2.6. Again, in only 60 games. More importantly, he was a marked improvement from the minimal production the Padres were receiving from behind the plate.

But now, we wonder. He tested positive for testosterone. I'm not a doctor, but from a layman's understanding testosterone helps build muscles in athletes. As this article from the New York Times from 2006 points out, "Steroids are not going to take someone without athletic ability and turn them into a star athlete, or teach you how to swing a bat and connect with the ball, but if you have a certain athletic presence, testosterone could take you to the next level."

This begs the question as to whether or not the 2012 half season of Yasmani Grandal was in fact a bill of goods. We won't know the answer to that for some time. The most damning evidence in any of these cases is a marked drop-off in performance (conversely, what helps Braun in the public mind, at least somewhat, is that he reproduced at the same level in 2012).

More importantly however is how long this has been on going. Experts seem split on the short-term effects of testosterone. But the long-term effects are clear. Was Grandal using as a 1st round draft pick in 2010? Was he using when the Padres traded away their ace pitcher to bring him (among others) to San Diego? If it turns out that the Padres gave up Mat Latos for a player who's prospects are now built on a foundation with a very serious crack, then he will not only have cheated himself and his competitors but the franchise that has pegged him as a cornerstone of a talent-filled youth movement.

One final thought on Grandal. Regardless of what comes out of all this and regardless of what you are about to read next, this is an incredibly selfish thing for Grandal to do. Whether PEDs should be illegal in sports or not (more on that in a moment) is irrelevant for now. Because they are illegal in MLB. And Grandal knew it. And did it anyway. He now takes his tremendous talent off the field for 50 games, and has hurt his teams chances at being competitive. Simply put, this was selfish.


Part II

In law school I went to a sports law symposium once where the keynote speaker was David Cornwell, former Assistant General Counsel for the NFL and former attorney for Shawne Merriman during his PED issue. He made the argument that perhaps instead of pushing PEDs into dark rooms and alleyways (hyperbole obviously) that they should be made legal in sports.

Before we continue I think it's important to make the following statement. In absolutely no way do I condone abusing any drug, legal or illegal. From a health perspective, it is clear the damage that abusing drugs whether it's steroids, cocaine or alcohol is a very real danger to one's health. In no way should it be condoned.

But this isn't an argument about the health risk. If players are made aware of the risk and choose to take those risk nevertheless, so be it. This is about the "Performance Enhancing" aspect of this. Because that's why these suspensions are so serious. Professional sports leagues don't care that much about player safety. Not as much as they care about compelling sport and profit.

So if we view this problem from a perspective of "performance enhancing" then I think the question is fair. Why aren't they legal? Through time we have allowed people to ingest, in some form, any number of things to help aid one's performance. Most people begin their morning with coffee. A caffeine boost to get your day started. Caffeine is nothing more than a chemical being ingested to "enhance" your "performance." Test takers take medication to help them concentrate. Sleeping pills, pain relievers, and even prescribed steroids are all used to help every day people get through the day.

So where do we draw the line? Obviously I'm not suggesting that caffeine is in the same ballpark as a steroid. Only using an obvious exaggeration to point out that this bright line we have drawn is a moving target.

If players were allowed to use PEDs then the primary reason that leagues make them illegal (unfair competitive advantage) ceases to exists. The science has caught up with the athletes. Legalizing it could lead to safer use amongst player, perhaps off-setting some health concerns. There is some evidence that these drugs in fact help players recuperate from injury, aiding in the healing process.

And if health is the concern, and at this point we all accept that some portion of athletes are using, does that not make it more unsafe for players who don't use?

I don't know the answer to many of these questions. But in a week where recreational marijuana was made legal in two states, I'm left wondering the same for PEDs. Perhaps legalizing it is the easiest way to get control of it.

The Frozen Donkey Wheel of Petco Park

In the ABC drama "LOST" Benjamin Linus is told that he must move the island to save the island. This obviously seems like an insane, and impossible, request to make of anyone. Nevertheless, Ben, who's sole purpose in life has been the protection of the island, does as he is told. In the Season 4 finale, he turns a frozen donkey wheel that results in the island disappearing from it's physical location.

And all of this has really just been an excuse to tell you that I love LOST. Great show. Screw you guys who hated the finale.

I hope that moving the fences in at Petco Park is a more simple process than locating and turning a mystical frozen donkey wheel.

As you have no doubt heard by now, Petco Park's dimensions are changing for the 2013 season. Corey Brock had the story yesterday and you can read it here.

As highlighted in the article, the major moves are as follows:

• Moving in the wall that runs from the right-field porch to right-center 11 feet. The wall will also be lowered to match the height of the sub-eight-foot wall in left and center field.

• The out-of-town scoreboard in right field will be relocated. Seating modifications in that area will be announced later. In right-center, the wall will move from 402 feet to 391 feet.

• The wall in left-center will be moved in from 402 feet to 390 feet.

• The visiting bullpen, currently down the right-field line in foul territory, will be moved to center field behind the existing home bullpen area.

Again, I'm assuming by now you are aware of this. The "Move in the Fences!" argument has been perhaps the longest standing inter-Padres fan base argument in the franchises history. And those who campaigned, loudly, for such a move have achieved their goal. It does leave one wondering: what on earth will we argue about now?

But enough about that. The question is whether this is the right move or not. And anyone who tells you that they know for certain that this is a mistake or the right decision is lying. The walls are moving in 11 ft and 12 ft in right field and left field. That's substantial. An article on Fangraphs from January 3, 2012 shows that the effect of Petco on left-handed hitters was devastating regarding their ability to hit HR's. But you'll see an increase in left-handed hitters to hit singles, doubles and triples. Is sacrificing those singles, doubles and triples worth more HRs? Time will tell whether those numbers are effected at all.

It stands to reason that next year will see an uptick in HRs. And likely to follow, an uptick in offense.

What remains to be seen is how much of an effect this will have on the Padres pitching staff and bullpen, a strength for the Padres during their tenure in Petco Park. What further remains to be seen is whether this will increase the teams ability to lure free agents to San Diego. We aren't likely to know that for a few years once some data exist on how Petco Park plays.

On the more immediate horizon is this question: following a career year, will moving in the fences make Chase Headley more likely to sign an extension in San Diego? Was that part of the equation? I don't know the answers to these questions.

I was never for moving in the fences, as detailed in this blog post from 2011. But if the modification of the fences leads to a more successful team, I'm all for it. Because that's all that should matter. Will this make the team better? That's the only question that matters. Any argument regarding entertainment value of one style of baseball vs another is pointless and meaningless. Is this a smart baseball move? They've done their research in making this move. But does anyone really know?

And that's the takeaway here. The moving of the fences in raises a lot of questions. Questions that no one, despite all the data and research they've done, can answer. What is not up for debate is the fact that the Padres, in 8 years of Petco Park, experienced 4 of the most winning seasons in their franchise history. Whether the park had some, a lot, or anything to do with that is not clear. But to move the fences, despite the team's relative success, is a bold move.

In LOST, once the wagon wheel was turned, it caused the island to begin jumping through time. This was only stopped by detonating a hydrogen bomb.

Unintended consequences lurk with any move like this. That doesn't necessarily mean those consequences are negative. But right now, we simply don't know.

Do Not Go Gently Into That Good Night

And on October 3rd, 2012 on a early Fall night in Milwaukee the 2012 San Diego Padres season came to an end. And never has a 76 win season been more celebrated.

Baseball is a microcosm for life. Except in one, very distinct, way. Life, your losses stay on your record. It's one long season. In baseball, everything is cyclical. Everything starts anew in the Spring. And I can't wait.

For now, the Padres 2012 season is over.

The Padres end with 76 wins. That's 2.5 more than Vegas predicted, and probably about 15 games more than anyone expected back when the team was 19-40. A 100 loss season seemed eminent.

Then something crazy happened.

On May 18th, the Padres outright released Orlando Hudson and moved Bartlett to the DL list of lost souls. They were 14-26.

I remember vividly where I was when it happened. As non-on the field moments go, this felt BIG. Not Adrian Gonzalez traded big (was sitting on my couch obsessively updating Twitter waiting for the news) or Mat Latos trade (Christmas shopping with my wife in Pasadena). But nevertheless, this felt important. I was leaving court, driving out of a parking garage and had just turned on Darren Smith when I heard. It was, at the time, the highlight of the 2012 Padres season.

They finished May on a 3-13 run after this. Things were not turning around immediately. But the team felt, I don't know, more fun to root for. Youth on the field. Making errors one can come to expect from youth. But also bringing with them excitement.

June was a modest improvement. 12-15. Not great, but a far cry better than the 17-35 in April and May.

They didn't play under .500 in a month (3 days in October not withstanding) again.

They went 33-21 in July and August before a .500 September and a 1-2 October.

"Bad early. Good late." - Bud Black

That pretty much sums up the Padres season.

I was as despondent as I have ever been as a Padres fan at the beginning of the year. I am as optimistic as I have ever been at the end of one.

There will be time this Winter to discuss the amazing season of Chase Headley, what the Padres need to fill in the pieces in 2013 and the health of a very young pitching staff.

For now though, let's enjoy a great second half of a season, a sale that may have revived baseball in San Diego, and dreams of what 2013 may hold.

As Yonder Alonso put it on Twitter tonight:

I'm very sad to end the season. Wish we had 1 more month to do work! Back at it soon!!! Great W tonight!! #2013 is our year! DALE!

— Yonder Alonso (@YonderalonsoU) October 4, 2012

That one more month is coming...April 2013.

Extending Chase Headley

Chase Headley continued his torrid post-trade deadline pace last night by hitting 2 HR and knocking in 4 RBI, leading the Padres to yet another win in this 2nd half of 2012.

All told, Headley since August 1 is hitting .338, with 14 HRs, and 46 RBI. He will almost certainly hit 100 RBI this season, a feat not accomplished since Adrian Gonzalez in 2010.

But you all know this. I don't need to sell you on Chase Headley anymore.

What I'm here to talk about is extending Chase Headley. And what it might take to do that.

Chase Headley is currently paid $3.475 million on a one year deal. He is arbitration eligible in 2013 and 2014. Basically, Headley is a steal right now. But those days are about to be over.

So what kind of contract would it take, realistically, to keep Headley? And at what number do the Padres say "that's too high" and walk away? Let's compare:

Chase Headley 2012
WAR: 4.9
Slash Line: .287/.370/.488
HR: 26
RBI: 98
UZR: 5.2
SB: 14

Aramis Ramirez
The Milwaukee Brewers, attempting to recoup the loss of Prince Fielder from both an offensive standpoint and a fan interest standpoint, signed the 34 year old 3rd basemen to 3 yrs/$36 million. The Brewers have been rewarded with a .295 BA, 21 HR, and 89 RBI for a WAR of 4.1.

From an offensive standpoint, Ramirez is having perhaps the most comparable season. It's not a perfect comparison. For one, Headley walks far more than Ramirez (69 vs 39) which translates to a higher OBP (.370 vs .358) and is a bigger threat to steal (14/20 vs 7/9). Ramirez, for his part, out slugs Headley (.523 vs .488).

But the biggest difference is their age. While Headley turned 28 this season, Ramirez turned 34 this season in his first year of a 3 year deal.

Conclusion: A comparable WAR and offensively numbers but older, Ramirez was worth the limited risk of a 3 year contract at $12 million a year.

Pablo Sandoval
Like Chase Headley, Pablo Sandoval was a homegrown talent. Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2002, Sandoval made his debut in 2008. He is a fan favorite in San Francisco, garnering the nickname Kung Fu Panda which as translated into a marketing an apparel boom for San Francisco. He is now playing his first of his 3 years on a contract signed this past off-season. It is a contract that gobbles up his arbitration years and was a viewed as a reward for Sandoval's renewed conditioning and weight loss regimen to rebound from a poor 2010.

Using his 2012 numbers is a bit difficult as he has been injured quite a bit this season. I'm not factoring in injuries in doing these comparisons because, frankly, they are unpredictable. Though it is worth noting that the Giants got only 117 games out of Sandoval this year and thus far 85 games this season. Surely this played into their decision somewhat. But, using the 2011 numbers, which in effect were the basis for the Giants decision to extend Sandoval, seems a more fair comparison.

In 2011, Sandoval was good for a BA of .315, 23 HR, 70 RBI. A slash line of .315/.357/.552 and a WAR of 5.9. That WAR was good for 3rd amongst 3rd basemen in MLB.

Conclusion: Sandoval is a fan favorite and one of the best 3rd basemen in baseball when he is healthy. But his weight and conditioning are a constant struggle have lead to another injury filled season. Sandoval will be under 30 when this contract expires. 3 yrs/$17.5 million.


The above are obviously 3rd basemen which is the most accurate comparison for Chase Headley. From a statistical standpoint, their are other 3rd basemen having similar seasons as Headley but their contract situation, either due to being far too large (in a big market) or in the midst of a rookie contract (and thus far too small) are not comparable. Examples: David Wright, Brett Lawrie, David Freese.

Below are a few players who have similar WAR's (as with any stat, this one is imperfect and is used here to find players, relatively speaking, similar to Chase in value) in comparable markets to San Diego and their contracts.

Alex Gordon (LF): WAR 4.7

From a franchise standpoint, the Royals compare to the Padres in a lot of ways. A small market team that has tried to build longer lasting success through the draft a strong farm system, the Royals have now begun reaching that point of locking up some of their younger homegrown talent. It has lead to a better season in 2012, though certainly not where the Royals want to be.

One of those young homegrown talents is Alex Gordon. And if the All-Star Game and HR Derby are any indiction, a fan favorite in KC.

Slash Line: .298/.367/.454
HR: 11
RBI: 63

By every metrix Gordon is having a down year in comparison to 2011, which was the season that earned his contract extension. In 2011, .303/.376/.502 and won a Gold Glove with a WAR of 7.1. Like Chase, Gordon was a heavily hyped prospect (2nd overall pick in 2005).

This 2011 season (again, a more fair comparable as it's the season that earned the contract which is the situation we are in with Chase) resulted in a 4 yr/$37.5 million contract extension for a player that is 28 years old.

Conclusion: Homegrown talent at the same age locked up for less than $10 million.

Ben Zobrist (RF): WAR 4.8

Zobrist was traded to Tampa Bay in 2006 for Aubrey Huff (you read that right). So in that way, he is not "homegrown" though he has been with the Rays for 6 years now. In 2010, he signed a 3 yr, $30 million extension with options in 2014 and 2015. He was rewarded for his breakout year of 2009 which looked like this:

.297/.405/.543, 27 HR, 91 RBI, WAR 8.3

This year, in his 2nd year of this deal, he is hitting .266/.373/.468 WAR 4.8. Hilariously, this is his Wikipedia page for his 2012 section: "On September 7, 2012, Zobrist hit a walk off homerun vs. the Texas Rangers. This event made Buggy very sad." I don't know what that means.

Conclusion: Rewarded for a breakout year that he has yet to repeat, Zobrist remains a integral part of a team consistently in the playoff hun. 31 years old. 3 yrs, $30 million.

Miguel Montero (C): WAR 3.2

Another homegrown talent, Montero is the highest paid player on this list. Well, he will be. Signing a 5 yr, $60 million contract this May. Playing into this decision was the Diamondbacks perceived lack of a suitable and comparable replacement should they lose Montero. Not seeing a comparable replacement for the price they were willing to go for Montero, Kevin Towers locked up his young catcher for the foreseeable future.

He is the 4th highest ranked catcher in MLB per WAR (3.2), ahead of Joe Mauer, Matt Wieters and Mike Napoli.

2012 Slash Line: .285/.384/.451
Age: 29

Conclusion: A homegrown talent at one of the more important positions on the field, the Diamondbacks locked up one of the best catchers in the NL at a hefty price, driven mostly by a lack of a suitable replacement.


Of these players, the most comparable to Chase Headley in my mind is Alex Gordon. Similar hype, similar breakout year numbers in a similar market.

As such, 4 yrs/$40 million seems to be, in my mind, a fair market value. Would I go as high as Montero? I don't know. The difference here then with pretty much everyone listed on this list is that the Padres believe they possibly have a replacement for Headley, at a far cheaper price, in Jedd Gyorko. But prospects are unknown commodities. And works in progress. It's worth noting that the top prospect in the Royals farm system is Wil Myers, an outfielder, and despite this they still locked up Gordon. OF obviously being a different beast however as their are 3 possible positions to play vs only one 3rd basemen on the field.

5 yrs/$55 million. That's the deal that I'd give Headley. It's less than Montero. It's comparable in yearly salary to Ramirez for a far better (and younger) player.

Whether the Padres can do it remains to be seen. But they should.

Hot August Nights (and Days)

The Padres just finished the best month of baseball since August of 2007.

The team that, at one point, was 20-41 on the season, just won 18 games in a month for the first time in 5 years.

Even the most optimistic of fans could not have predicted that a team with 13 players on the DL, including 3/5ths of the starting rotation and their closer somehow put together a month equal to a team featuring Jake Peavy, Greg Maddux, Chris Young as the starting rotation and Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff and the Giles brothers.

Such a month deserves a blog post.

August Behind-the-Numbers

Team BA: .264 (7th in NL)
Highest since August 2011

Team ERA: 3.79 (6th in NL)

HR: 26 (8th in NL)
Ahead of the Los Angeles Moneybags...er Dodgers.

OBP: .328 (4th in NL)

Favorite Game of August: 8/21/12 vs Pittsburgh. Headley's 2 run HR walk-off.

2nd Favorite Game: 8/27/12 vs Atlanta. Casey Kelly, one of the key pieces of the Adrian Gonzalez trade, makes his MLB debut going 6IP, 0R, 3H, 4SO and throwing 87 pitches.

But perhaps most telling to why the offense is suddenly clicking. Strikeouts. In April, only 1 team in the National League struck out more than the Padres (192).

In August, only 3 teams struck out less than the Padres (194).

And when they get on, they are getting over. The Padres stole more bases than all but 1 team in the N.L. in August (25). Nor do they squander base runners, grounding into the fewest double plays in the N.L.

Were they a paper tiger, beating up on lesser competition thanks to the scheduling Gods? Hardly. The month of August featured 21 games vs teams within 5 games of a playoff spot or better (Cincinnati, Atlanta, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Arizona).

Ask any Padres fan and my guess is they will tell you that, as a fan, this has been the most enjoyable month of this season by a long shot. But it's a fading memory unless it leads to bigger things. In 2009, the Padres ended the season in August and September going 32-23. This followed a June and July in which they went 17-37. And was later looked at as the first inclination that the 2010 team would win 90 games.

If the Padres play September above .500, it will be the 3rd month in a row they've done so, something they did only once in 2011 (14-14 in May). More importantly, it may be the same bellwether for 2013 as it was back in 2009.

Already you have seen the front office take notice that the team as constructed is perhaps closer to contending than previously believed. Chase Headley wasn't moved, and in turn the Padres were rewarded by Chase who lead the league in HR and RBI:

Chase Headley finished August with the most HR (10, tied) also and RBIs (31) in baseball. Last #Padres player to do so with Caminiti, 8/96.

— Follow The Padres (@FollowThePadres) September 1, 2012

The rest of the baseball world is starting to notice as well. Just this week, two articles came out highlighting the recent Padres surge and the prospect of a competitive future that now may be closer than previously believed. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, wrote that the Padres look like a team that may contend "sooner rather than later."

Fangraphs tempered their expectation somewhat, writing this week that "suddenly .500 looks less like a goal and more like an expectation."

But really it comes down to this. Baseball is suppose to be fun. It's a pastime. We watch because it's fun to watch. Except, for most of this year, it hasn't been.

Until now.

An All-Star Game at Petco Park

There are few San Diego media members who, when they say something or spout an opinion, I listen. And listen closely. Darren Smith of XX1090 is at the top of that list.

Tonight, he tweeted something interesting. On the day that a new ownership group was announced, and simultaneously Petco Park was once again passed up for an All-Star Game (being awarded to Target Field in Minnesota in 2014), Darren Smith tweets this:

Off air, one of the #Padres new owners told me that getting the All Star Game to PETCO was a priority:"We've got to get that here".

— Darren Smith (@DSmithShow) August 30, 2012

Was this an off-the-cuff comment in light of the news of the day? More importantly, does this comment imply that the ownership groups interest in an All-Star Game is a vital component to having one awarded to your home park?

I don't know the answer to this. But I do know this. I want an All-Star Game in Petco Park. Consider this the official kick-off of the Left Coast Bias campaign to bring the Midsummer Classic to San Diego. I intend to take full credit for when this actually happens (knowing full well I have little, if any, actual ability to effect this decision).

Here is a list of venues that have not hosted an All-Star Game, in order they were opened:

Tropicana Field (opened in 1990; Rays played there since 1998)
Great American Ballpark (2003)
Citizens Bank Ballpark (2004)
Petco Park (2004)
Nationals Park (2008)
New Yankee Stadium (2009)
Target Field (2010)
Marlins Park (2012)

Here's what is more interesting to me. Since Petco Park opened in 2004, here are the venues that have hosted an All-Star Game, and more importantly, when those parks opened:

2004 - Minute Maid Park (Opened in 2000)
2005 - Comerica Park (Opened in 2000)
2006 - PNC Park (Opened in 2001)
2007 - AT&T Park (Opened in 2000) Also, a break from the typical NL/AL split.
2008 - Yankee Stadium (Opened in 1923) It's last year in existence.
2009 - Busch Stadium III (Opened in 2006)
2010 - Angel Stadium (Originally opened in 1966; Renovations in 1998)
2011 - Chase Field (Opened in 1998)
2012 - Kaufman Stadium (Opened in 1973; Renovations done in 2009)
2013 - Citi Field (Opened in 2009)
2014 - Target Field (Opened in 2010)

Of these venues, 3 have previously hosted an All-Star Game. New York ('39, '60, '77); Anaheim (1989); Kansas City (1973). So let's remove those from our list.

The longest gap between a park being opened and an All-Star Game being awarded is 13 years with Chase Field in Phoenix. Per Darren Smith yet again:

@leftcoastbias @sdrhythm Very political.Some thought Arizona getting it was directly due to Moorad leaving (think Reinsdorf)

— Darren Smith (@DSmithShow) August 30, 2012

Otherwise, on average, a brand new venue is awarded an All-Star Game 4 to 5 years after opening. So, who was it in San Diego that became the albatross upon which MLB would not grant a Midsummer Classic to San Diego? Sandy Alderson, Jeff Moorad, Neil the Beerman? Who knows?

But those people are gone now. And in comes new owners, clearly respected by the MLB fraternity of owners (as evidenced by how quick the approval vote went).

The point really is this.

San Diego is a fantastic sports town. And has proven time and again to be a marquee city when hosting major sporting events. And it's been since 2008 (PGA U.S. Open) since America's Finest City has had the opportunity to do so.

The Park at the Park packed with fans. A homerun derby that will bring more controversy then any before it (assuming the fences aren't moved by then). The San Diego harbor as the backdrop for 3 days, while the spotlight of MLB shines brightly.

And maybe this time, the Padres representative will actually get to play.

2014 is heading to Minneapolis. An AL city. An NL city is on deck. 2015 will make 11 years since Petco Park has opened.

It's time MLB.

To Better Days

I was born in 1980 so, technically, I was around for the 1984 World Series Padres team. Except I was 3 when it happened. And living in Virginia. It was in 1984 that I was moved (Because, at 3, you don't move. You are moved) to Oceanside. Life as a military family.

To borrow a phrase from Gaslamp Ball, I've been cognitively aware of the Padres since about 1987, if I had to put a year on it. I'm sure I was a "fan," for whatever that means to someone under the age of 10, but when I really search my memory it is 1987 that comes to mind. I have no idea why. But for the purposes of this post, let's use that year as a starting point.

In that time frame I've witnessed some extraordinary highs:

Benito Santiage Wins Rookie of the Year - 1987
Mark Davis Won a Cy Young - 1988
Tony Gwynn Won Batting Title on Final Day vs Will Clark - 1989
Tony Gwynn Chases .400 - 1994
The 1996 Season, including an MVP for Caminiti, Batting Title for Gwynn, and a sweep of the Dodgers on the final day to win the NL West. - 1996
Going to the World Series - 1998 (also includes my first MLB playoff game in person)
Division Championships in '05 and '06 - 2005; 2006
Jake Peavy's Cy Young - 2007
Trevor Hoffman's 500th Save - 2007
Trevor Hoffman's Number Retired - 2011

But boy, there have been some dark, dark times. The 1994 MLB Strike, the fire sale in which Gary Sheffield, Fred McGrief, Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar all left within a year's time, Game 163, the 1998 World Series, Ken Caminiti's steroid abuse and subsequent death, the Adrian Gonzalez trade, and most damaging perhaps of all, the Moores divorce.

Tomorrow, the Padres officially welcome in their new ownership group. A group that has spent $800 million to be the 6th different owner in the franchise history. No one today can say whether this will be looked back as the dawning of the most successful years in Padres history, a colossal failure, or something in between.

But that's the cool thing about fresh starts. Anything is possible. There is a world of possibility. For a fan base that has endured only 16 at or above .500 seasons in their history, and has only won 1 total game won in World Series play, new owners, with new pocketbooks, bring with them the possibility that better days are ahead.

Congratulations! You Made a Sale!

The Dodgers are Darth Vader.

Well, that's probably not accurate.

The Dodgers are The Empire. Whoever owns the Dodgers then, in effect, becomes Darth Vader. I'm looking at you crazy rich guys and Magic Johnson.

So, if you are following along with this metaphor, guess who that makes the Padres? Ok, who said Ewoks?

The rebel alliance was ultimately lead by the son of the leader of the Evil Empire. On August 16th, 2012 the sale of the Padres was completed to an ownership group that includes Kevin O'Malley, son of former Dodgers owner Peter O'Malley, nephew of Peter O'Malley Peter Seilder, Phil Mickelson (more on this in a moment) and headed by Ron Fowler (and this).

Kevin O'Malley is the Luke Skywalker in this equation. Hopefully with more the Empire Strikes Back version versus the whiny A New Hope version. I suppose that makes Phil Mickelson like, I don't know, Admiral Akbar? This metaphor is exhausting. The point is, we drink your milkshake L.A. And next, we are coming for your Death Star.

Now we are mixing movies. Let's move on.

Who is Ron Fowler? I'll be honest. I don't really know. But I do know he is the CEO of Liquid Investments, a beer distributor. Among the products they help distribute:

Dogfish Head
Lagunita's
21st Amendment
Ballast Point
Anchor Brewing
New Belgium Brewing

That's some fine beer taste. Any guy who is helping get these beers out to the general public is a guy I can trust. I hope. (Editor's Note: They also distribute PBR, so there's that. A guy's got to eat. And hipsters got to be hipsters)

So far we have a beer guy and the son of Darth Vader on our side.

And then there's Lefty.

The trend in sports ownership these days is to have a face of your ownership group. No team does this better than the Brooklyn Nets and Jay-Z. At this point, I want to play for the Nets, that's how cool Jay-Z makes it seem despite having nearly no actual ownership stake. The aforementioned Magic Johnson in L.A. being only the most recent example.

And now we have Phil. Perhaps the second most famous athlete from San Diego (that may be hyperbole, don't get caught up in the semantics), Phil Mickelson has made a career out of taking high risk shots in high risk situations. He crashes and burns as much as he succeeds. But it's almost always entertaining.

But what Phil is really great at is getting up and down for par. Around the green, pitching, chipping, out of a bunker, Phil knows how to put the ball in the hole when he's close, no matter the lie.

The Padres may be in a bunker right now, but it's a greenside bunker. And hopefully this is the ownership group to get the Padres up and down for that par.

Star Wars metaphors, golf metaphors and a There Will Be Blood reference. My work here is done.

To Dream the Impossible Dream

If you are not one for optimism, or one for rooting for what appears to be the impossible, look away. If underdogs and made-for-Hollywood comebacks make you queasy, this post is not for you.

Because what I'm about to say defies logic, common sense, and will likely lead you to discredit any opinion forthwith as the ravings of a madman.

But I'm not so sure the Padres are out of the 2012 playoff picture.




Stay with me now. And let me make this crystal clear. I have no expectation that they can do it. Zero.

But...it could happen.

In 2011, the St. Louis Cardinals were 10.5 games back of the Wild Card on August 25th. They won the World Series.

In 2010, well, I think you know what the Giants did.

And let's not forget the multiple years of Rocktober we've witnessed. The precedent has been set.

What if the Padres could be one of those stories?

Again, this is madness. Craziness really. Or is it?

The Padres finished a July above .500 (15-11) for the first time since 2010. Meanwhile, the Dodgers played .500, the Diamondbacks at 14-13, and the Giants at .500. Should that happen again in August, the Padres would be 7.5 games back at the start of September.

In September, the Padres play the Diamondbacks, Giants and Dodgers 6 times each.

It's possible. That's all I'm saying. Not probable. Possible.

Cashner is throwing bullpen sessions. Grandal is tweeting about his return. Chase Headley has caught fire now that he doesn't have to check trade rumors every hour of every day, Quentin is healthy (ish) and providing protection, and the team is committing less errors.

If sports has taught me anything, is that the impossible is possible. It was impossible that Adam Scott would lose the British Open with a 4 shot lead with 4 holes to play. Yet he did. It was impossible that the Giants could beat the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl. Except they did. George Mason in the Final Four? IMPOSSIBLE! Yet it happened.

Teams get hot. Other teams fade. Lightning in a bottle. Cliche. Cliche. Cliche.

But isn't it more fun to hope?

"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies." - if I have to tell you what this is from...watch more movies.

All Quiet on the Trading Front

"So, you're telling me there's a chance."

That seems to be the message being sent by Padres GM Josh Byrnes today. As the trade deadline passed, nary a peep was heard from the front offices of Petco Park today.

Instead, the Padres spent most of their time leading up to the trade deadline extending pieces they believe will help them win in the more immediate future. Quentin is here to stay for awhile. So is Huston. Which begs the question "how badly do we need a closer on a sub .500 team?"

The answer with those two extensions seems to be that the front office of the Padres expect to compete. Soon.

But despite that, most expected the Padres to jettison their most coveted piece. Chase Headley. The market was weak for third basemen. With an extra wild card, there were even more teams willing to be buyers at the deadline. Chase's contract is more than reasonable.

As first pitch in Cincinnati was thrown at 4:00pm Pacific, hours after the deadline had passed, there was Chase Headley starting at 3rd.

It had been reported in the days leading up to the deadline that Byrnes was looking for a Latos-esqu deal. Talks appeared to progress to something beyond simple talk with at least Baltimore and Oakland. But teams weren't willing to meet the Padres high demand. The market never changed. The Padres took very few calls reportedly on Tuesday. And there stood Chase Headley, the longest tenured current Padre, still a Padres on Tuesday night.

This is the right call. The message is clear from Brynes. They expect to compete soon. If that is the case, you don't send a key cog of that wheel away for prospects. That's rebuilding. Byrnes appears to believe the rebuilding is over.

For the many shortcomings of the 2012 San Diego Padres (and there are many, though some through no fault of their own i.e. injuries), Chase Headley is not one of them. Yes, one can cherry pick statistics and point out his faults. The fact that one has to cherry pick stats to such a degree to find fault in a player, however, says everything you need to know about a player.

I don't know how one scouts and analyzes this season for the Padres. The team today is so different from where this season started that one almost has to throw out the first two months. We still don't know what the starting rotation would have done had the ghost of Tommy John not haunted Darren Balsley's staff.

I do know that, even fully healthy, this team as is is not winning a newly fully loaded NL West. Tweaks will need to be made. But Chase Headley is part of the solution, not the problem.

Of course, no extension of Chase followed his no-trade. At least not yet. Which will leave the door open this winter for us to all go through this again.

Competing in 2013

The Padres spent Sunday spending $27 million. I'm still in pajamas and it's 2pm. So you could say our days have been a bit different. But I digress.

The Padres signed local boy Carlos Quentin to a 3 year, $27 million contract, ending all conversations about whether (and for what) he would be traded. He won't be. He is here to stay.

But this isn't a conversation about the merits of that deal. For the most part I like it, though the no-trade clause is always dangerous. But time will tell whether this was a smart move.

No, today I'm more interested in what this means about the organizations expectations for the immediate future. A signing like this would seem to indicate that the rebuilding process is in its final leg. That the team is planning to be competitive, perhaps as soon as 2013. So, let's look at that.

For one, 2012 has provided little in the way of a barometer regarding the Padres pitching staff. The current staff is a hodgepodge of players who happened to be available and answered their phone. For example, currently I'm watching Ross Ohlendorf pitch, a player who started 2012 in Pawtucket. Kip Wells, Jason Marquis. To paraphrase a sage mentor "these are not the starting pitchers you are looking for."

By now the Padres injury struggles are well documented. Needless to say, the post-Latos trade projected starting 5 of Volquez, Luebke, Stauffer, Richard and Moseley/Bass spent precious little time on the field.

Then there's the middle infield. I hate to do this to you and I'll make it fast but, we started this year with the Hudson/Barlett tandem. A distant memory now, it took awhile to rectify this situation because, you guessed it, injury. Forsythe and Cabrera were injured, Amarista was an Angel. The times were different.

But not anymore. Hudson is gone. Bartlett is going to be gone. Hundley's struggles (and now injury) are in Tucson. The lion share of the Latos trade is on the field in San Diego. The team is drastically different then it was to start the year. Hell, it's different from where this team was on Memorial Day.

Yes the team is playing better. Yes the competition has been weaker. But keep in mind, this is a team that got swept from the Cubs so beating even weak teams is progress.

Can they compete in 2013? Here's what their lineup by mid-June should look like. This obviously takes the optimistic view that they will not suffer as many injuries next year as this.

C Yasmani Grandal
1B Yonder Alonso
2B Forsythe/Amarista
SS Cabrera/Amarista
3B Headley or Gyorko
LF Quentin
CF Maybin
RF Venable/Denofia

SP Luebke
SP Stauffer
SP Cashner
SP Richard
SP Bass or whoever 2013's Volquez/Harang type person is

Closer: No idea

Now, let's look at the NL West. Currently the Giants lead the West with a 53-42 record despite being 11th in Runs Scored in the NL. (The Dodgers are 13th in that category BTW). It doesn't take a ton of firepower to win the West. It does take pitching.

So, can this team compete in 2013? I imagine that depends on how you define "competing?" I define it as playing important baseball games in September. Can the team above stay in the race in the West in 2013? I think they've shown in the past 3 weeks that they can. It's a young team, but, thanks to injuries in 2012, many of the young pieces are getting MLB experience ahead of schedule. That can only help moving forward.

It's for that reason that I like the Quentin signing. The team believes they are close. The product on the field is better. And the NL West is not top-heavy. You don't extend Quentin when you are rebuilding.

It appears that rebuilding process is now near its end.

10 Reasons The 2nd Half Won't Suck As Much As The 1st Half

Hey there strangers. The blog posting has been sporadic to say the least around here. Hoping to change that. With any luck, the Padres will provide me with more material in the next 2 and a half months.

The 1st half of the season has not been, what's the word, "good." Currently, there are 12 players on the Padres DL. 12. Since the beginning of Spring Training, 22 different players have been injured. That's nearly an entire roster of players. Only the Boston Red Sox have more players currently on their DL than the Padres. At one point this year, half of the Padres payroll was either hurt, benched, or had been out right released.

This has contributed to a 34-53 record at the All-Star Break. Now, I don't think many harbored any delusions of division championships before the season began. But, I don't think this team is nearly as bad as that record suggest. 22 injuries will do that too you.

At 19 games under .500, you might be asking yourself "why keep watching?" Fair enough. Thus, I present to you 10 Reasons the 2nd Half of the Season Won't Suck as Much as the 1st Half:

10) Cameron Maybin's Toe Tap
I foolish predicted Maybin would be the Padres All-Star at the beginning of the year, banking on the fact that Maybin would continue improving on his mini-breakout year of 2011. About 100,000 strikeouts later, that prediction could not look more dumb. To help fix Maybin without sending him down to AAA, he is now trying a much shorter swing stride, or a "toe tap." Anecdotally it seems to be helping as only days after making that change he crushed a 485 ft HR in Phoenix. Here's to a better 2nd half, thanks to the toe tap!

9) Andrew Cashner's Return
Like most, I thought the worst when Cashner grabbed his elbow after air-mailing a warm-up pitch in Phoenix. I assumed yet another Tommy John surgery which meant not seeing Cashner until August/September of 2013. To say I was crestfallen would be an understatement. But it doesn't sound so serious now. Placed on the 15 Day DL with a strained right lat, it sounds like an injury that could have knocked Cashner out for more than a year will now only keep him out for about a month. Which means mid-August, the 100 MPH fastball returns.

8) The Trade Deadline
It's pretty clear the Padres will be active at the deadline this year. Quentin, Street, Headley, Denofia, all players who have been mentioned recently as being of interest to contending teams. The trade deadline will alter the current face of the Padres. What they get in return will be interesting.

7) The Forsythe/Amarista/Cabrera Middle Infield
Long gone are the Hudson/Bartlett days. They now reside in that part of my brain where I keep memories I don't want to think about. *shudder The quality of play up the middle has increased. And even if it doesn't translate into more runs, it's a hell of a lot more fun watching these guys then it ever was watching Hudson and Bartlett.

6) Avoiding 100 Losses
This has become my number one goal for the 2012 season. Avoid 100 losses. I'd be willing to put money down right now that they do. You know, if I were a gambling man. (Editor's Note: I'm a gambling man.) Heading into the All-Star Break the Padres were suddenly playing over .500, despite dropping 3 of 4 to the Reds. Partially due to a soft section of the schedule, its also due to the fact that the team is simply playing better.

5) Yasmani Grandal
Look, Nick, we had some fun times. Some laughs. They were great. But I'm not the same person I was back then. I've found someone else. He hits from both sides of the plate, with power, and has a mohawk. It's not you, it's Grandal.

4) New Owners
I don't pretend to have the business acumen to know whether the O'Malley Group is financially solvant enough to run a team or whether they are even the right choice for this team. I do know that having confusion at the top or worst, a lame duck, is bad for the on-field product. Having a relatively easy ownership transfer and getting the new owners in place before the season is out is a good thing, even if Moores walks with $200 million.

3) Playing Spoiler
From September 18th - September 30th, the Padres play: AZ, SF, LA, SF. Three teams that will likely be in the hunt for a playoff spot. If you can't make the playoffs, at least keep other teams from making the playoffs.

2) Minor League Prospects
If you head north on the 15 about an hour you can watch 2011 1st Round pick Cory Spangenberg. And the watch the Storm make another push for a California League Championship. The Missions are full of players on the relatively immediate radar of Padres fans (Decker, Liriano, Roach, Erlin). Max Fried (2012 1st Rd pick) is signed, sealed, delivered. The Minor Leagues are stock full of interesting stories and optimism. Get yourself out there to a minor league game before the season is up!

1) Big Eye IPA and Tacos
You could really do this during the 1st half of the season but, The Pier at Petco Park has become my favorite part at the park. Great views, great beer, delicious tacos. Who cares what the score is? I'm full.

Vedder Cup: Required Reading

Here we are kiddies. Vedder Cup Eve. It comes down to this (and 3 games later in the season). The Padres were embarrassed last year, dropping all but one game (and winning that one thanks to a 3 ball walk).

Lest you head into the most important series of the year ill prepared, here is your required reading (and viewing) on all things Vedder Cup.



First Things First:

- RJ's Fro and Avenging Jack Murphy do an excellent write-up of the origins of what has become the most heated rivalry no one knows about. This article takes us all the way back to biblical times, 1936 (sorry, little too much Book of Mormon in this house post-Tony Awards), where it all began.

Is this confluence of events a mere coincidence, something to be chalked up to happenstance? Perhaps it is nothing more than the randomness so frequently presented by our universe. History is always something that must be evaluated time and again based on the discoveries of those who demand answers and continue the search for them. Sometimes we don’t like the answers unearthed by the curious. These truths can be painful. It should be noted however, that no matter how unpalatable the truth may appear, it is not our duty to pay for the sins of our fathers.

- Then there is this blogs first post about the heated rivalry. As can often happen on lazy March days as we wait for the regular season to begin, the mind wandered to this "rivalry" that MLB had bestowed upon Seattle and San Diego.

The rivalry exist. No one knows how this fight started. Much like the Hatfield and McCoys, those of us carrying on this rivalry couldn't even tell you what we are fighting about.

But I know one thing. This rivalry needs a name.

- Then, of course, came the naming of said rivalry. Any great rivalry worth its salt has a name. The Big Game (Stanford vs Cal), Red River Shootout (Texas vs OU), and of course The Archie Wars (Betty vs Veronica). After a late night Twitter session that may or may not had been fueled by beer (spoiler alert: it was), the fans spoke, and The Vedder Cup was born.

However, for non-Pearl Jam nerds, Eddie Vedder has roots in San Diego. It was in San Diego that Eddie Vedder formed Bad Radio and it was in San Diego that Eddie Vedder was approached by Jack Irons to write songs for a three song instrumental demo for a band in Seattle, then known as Mookie Blaylock. Eddie Vedder, as the story goes, went surfing with the songs in his head, and penned the Mamasan Trilogy (Alive, Once, Footsteps).

Game One:

- In an exercise I'm not likely to repeat any time soon (read: laziness), I "nearly" live blogged Game 1 of the Vedder Cup. The Padres lost 4-1 that day. The highlight of the night: a Jack-in-the-Box shake.

8:13pm Direct quote from Mrs. Left Coast Bias, out of nowhere. "I'm getting the feeling...that a Jack in the Box shake is in my future. My immediate future."

- Geoff Young of Ducksnorts provided a far more intelligent recap of the 2011 Vedder Cup. As with most things Ducksnorts related, it is far better researched and insightful.

This marked the 13th time in 83 games the Padres had been blanked in 2011. Only one team in club history was shut out more often through the same point in the season: The inaugural 1969 team failed to score 17 times in its first 83 games en route to a franchise-record 23 shutouts.

It is good to have goals.

Onto 2012:

- On March 4th, the Vedder Cup grew up. Dan Hayes of the North County Times wrote an article, in an actual newspaper read by actual people that are not related to be by blood or marriage, about the Vedder Cup. If the rumors are true, this is one of many reasons Dan Hayes will be missed by Padres fans in the near future.

But what about the Padres and Mariners? You can't play a series to determine who has the best beverage. Coffee versus craft beer has a nice ring to it, but is that really going to cut it when you're discussing a fiercesome rivalry? No.

Are they going to play for who has better weather? No. Is that even up for debate?

How about which fan base is more bitter, according to Forbes? Yawn.

That's when we arrived at Pearl Jam singer Eddie Vedder with the help of some of our Twitter friends.

- The Avenger at Avenging Jack Murphy prepares all for the opening salvo of the 2012 campaign. Spring Training and what would (never) become known as "The Battle for Peoria Park."

To fully engross oneself in the narrative, is to seek understanding and ultimately education. Know your history and prepare for the 2012 Battle For The Vedder Cup.

- Padres and Pints is a VLog about the Padres that includes beer. During Spring Training, Dan Hayes was a guest to discuss, among other things, Vedder Cup. Discussion begins about 8:35 mark.


- Ray Kroc's Ghost updates us all on the latest contract deal at the Peoria Sports Complex, ensuring the Vedder Cup rivalry will be fueled for Spring Trainings to come. Leave it to the ghost of a fast food giant to take a business approach to this issue.

The Padres and their hated rivals, the Seattle Mariners [Because Bud tells us they are rivals.], announced this week that they have both signed agreements with the city of Peoria, AZ to keep their Spring Training home, the Peoria Sports Complex, the same for an additional 20 years.

- And finally, yesterday's post. This time it matters (because, well, what else do we have).

If you have some Vedder Cup reading that wasn't mentioned here, let me know and it shall be added. I also have it on good authority that before nights end we will have an official Vedder Cup logo, designed by friend of the blog Jeremy Nash


***UPDATE***
As promised, a black and white sketch of the Vedder Cup logo.

Vedder Times Ahead

I know. I know.

Horrible pun to title this post with. I blame the lack of coffee in my house right now, forcing me to utilize pumpkin spice coffee left over from last fall.

Do you have any idea what it does to your brain to drink pumpkin spice coffee in June?

But, horrible puns aside, we have bigger fish to fry. It is safe to say that the 2012 San Diego Padres campaign has meandered between apathetic to appalling. A quick rundown of the suck that has been 2012 in Padres land (not an exhaustive list):

- Ownership in flux. Who writes the checks? Josh Byrnes doesn't know. And that seems like a problem.

- The San Diego U-T has chosen, for no apparent reason, to turn on Tony Gwynn, posting two unflattering and unnecessary articles on him. The logic behind this fails me.

- 416* players have been placed on the DL. And counting. *estimate

- Carlos Quentin, in 9 games, already leads or is in the Top 3 in pretty much every major offensive category. While this is good news, it is also ominous news for what the offensive output has been without him.

- Going on the road. 6-20

- Being 18 games back of first. On June 10th.

- The Mets no-hitter. Leaving San Diego alone as the only team without one.

But there is something that can turn this thing around. I think we all know and have grown to accept that this is likely a lost season. Josh Byrnes has said as much, calling this season "unsalvageable."

I beg to differ. Because there is a little matter of The Vedder Cup.

In college, there is a thought that keeps fans of even the lowliest squads going. "As long as we beat 'State U' this season was a success." Whatever that rivalry is, a season is salvaged by beating them. Ohio St. going 1-10 on the season? Fine, if that 1 was Michigan.

So it is for the Padres. 100 losses appears probable. The high point of 2012 may end up being the draft. But beating our "hated rivals" to the north will give me something to hang onto the rest of the season.

Is it petty? Yes.

Is it pointless and have no actual meaning? Yes.

Is it somewhat cruel to hope for bad things to happen to a city that is watching its franchise play in the NBA Finals...as the Oklahoma City Thunder? Absolutely.

I don't care. I need a reason to care about the outcome of a game this year. Even if it's a manufactured one.

Hold on to the thread
The currents will shift
Guide me towards you.


See you in Seattle.

Defending Chase Headley on his Birthday

Happy Birthday Chase!

There is only one person that has lived that has lived up to the moniker "savior." And even He has his detractors.

Chase Headley was cursed with being presented to the San Diego fan base as a savior to a struggling offensive lineup. Headley was the 2007 Texas League Player of the Year and was considered one of the top prospects in the Padres organization. A 2nd round pick out of the University of Tennessee, success followed Chase Headley at every level.

On June 15, 2007, thanks to an injury to Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chase Headley was brought up to start at third base. He was hitting .357 at San Antonio at the time. He quickly obtained the moniker "savior" despite the organizations (and common sense) best attempts to lower expectations. He made his Major League debut in Wrigley Field in 2007, when he played 8 games. He was brought up again in 2008 (June 17th) to start a game at Old Yankee Stadium. Last year, when the Padres were bringing up Anthony Rizzo, I wrote about the fallacy of putting the level of expectations that we as fans did on players like Headley and Rizzo.

The takeaway? Headley wasn't a savior. He was simply an above-average baseball player. But to a fan base expecting the Bryce Harper of San Diego, there was no greater crime. And it is a crime that Chase Headley continues to pay for.

In 2011, Chase Headley finished in the Top 10 of 3rd basemen in the following categories: AVG (10th), OBP (3rd),SB (3rd), BB (7th), RUNS CREATED (9th).

Is he a power threat? Not really. Though people whose view of baseball is as regimented as a blueprint assume he should be since he plays a corner infield position. Bud Black often uses Headley in power positions in the lineup, though admittedly, who else should bat 3rd or 4th on this team right now? Yet what Headley does do, and does it well, is get on base. In a park and with a lineup that will not produce many 3-run HRs, the Padres need to manufacture runs to win. And you can't manufacture a run without having people on base. For as much debate (read: bitching) there is about the park and its dimensions, Chase Headley is a rare player who can and has had offensive success in Petco.

Of course, if you only view offensive success in HRs and RBI, I see why your disappointed. I also see you have a painfully narrow view of what a successful baseball player looks like. While HRs are not the be all, end all, RBI is as imperfect a stat as W are for a pitcher.

The Padres have many holes to fill. Middle infield, corner outfield, half the starting staff is injured. Let's not go creating problems where they don't exist. Chase Headley is one of only a few players that the Padres have that produce consistently, are durable, plays solid defense, and is homegrown (for whatever value you put on that).

Imagine a world in which Chase Headley was not presented as the savior of a franchise, but simply a minor league prospect brought up to replace an injured starter. Consider how much leeway you give Anthony Bass or Wieland. And then ask yourself why unrealistic expectations cloud your opinion of one of the few bright spots on this Padres roster.

Extend Chase Headley and build a lineup around him, Maybin and Alonso. But if you think Headley is part of the problem, I'm not sure we are watching the same games.

Headley had the audacity of not being Brooks Robinson. For this, some fans will never come around to him. But if your expectations are that high, strap in friend, because life is going to be really disappointing.

On Fandom In Dark Times

So, the Padres aren't very good this year. At least so far anyway. Who knows what the rest of the season holds? But one thing is sure, this incarnation of Padres baseball through 3 weeks has not been the poetry that Annie Savoy spoke of.

This sloppy start has lead to understandable frustration. It's one thing to lose. It's quite another to lose in the manner and fashion the Padres have. The Padres are 5th in MLB in strikeouts (I was mildly stunned to learn there are 4 teams who strike out more. If you are curious, they are: St. Louis, NYM, Houston, and Arizona. I suppose there is something to take from this that the Top 5 teams in strikeouts are all National League. I just don't know what that is.) and lead the league in errors. With a young team with limited resources, this is not a recipe for success. And makes losing in this fashion that much more frustrating.


Which has lead some fans to declare that they will no longer support this team until a better product is placed on the field. This is not the first nor will it be the last time a fanbase will make such a declaration. The idea is based in capitalist ideology. Baseball is a product, we are the consumers, thus if we are upset with the product we as consumers will stop purchasing said product until it is fixed. And while that makes perfect sense in a consumer based economy, it sadly makes next to no sense in sports.


For example. Let's say there is a great Thai restaurant in your neighborhood. You love this place, order the same thing every time, and every time it hits the spot. Then they change chefs. And the Tom Yum isn't as good anymore and the Gra Pow isn't as spicy and so on. So you stop going, perhaps post a scathing review on Yelp that longs for the chef of yore. In that scenario, there is another Thai restaurant 5 miles away. You have options.


There aren't options for fans. I'm a Padres fan. Have been since I was cognitively aware of baseball. I've never been a "fan" of another team. There have been teams I liked, or enjoyed rooting for provided that rooting interest did not interfere with the Padres. But no team that I have had an emotional connection to as I do with the Padres. Because ultimately that's what sports are. They are emotional connections. Why do you get so upset that you are near inconsolable when your team loses in heartbreaking fashion? Because this is more than a consumer based product. This is deeper. It matters in ways restaurants, soda, electronics and shoes never will. Other than my parents, there is nothing in this world that I've known and cared about for a longer period of time then the Padres.


It is for this reason that I cannot simply turn my back on them when they struggle. Because, unlike the Thai restaurant, there isn't another baseball team nearby that I can get the same experience. As frustrating and, at times, demoralizing as losing is, the reason it bothers me and matters to me so much is because I care. Because I'm a fan. If I stopped going, stopped watching the games on television and stopped wearing their apparel, that loss would far outweigh the frustration I feel when watching them today.


I choose to continue to attend games and watch games, even if I'll be sulking during most of them. Because it's what I've always done. And even in losing, I like to go to the games. I like watching the games on television.

Silver Linings on Opening Day

I've been accused of being an optimist and an apologist when it comes to the Padres. Guilty on both counts. When Conan O'Brien signed off from NBC for the last time, amid one of the strangest controversies in television history, he said this:

"Please don't be cynical. I hate cynicism -- it's my least favorite quality and it doesn't lead anywhere."

That's a lesson we could all stand to heed after Opening Day.

Yes, the Padres lost. Yes, Volquez walked in 2 runs which ultimately proved to be decisive. And yes, the Padres committed 3 errors, an "accomplishment" that was as rare as a unicorn last year.

But if you choose to draw sweeping conclusions from one game or have chosen cynicism over optimism over one day, then you don't get the point of Opening Day at all. Opening Day is for new beginnings. Everyone is still in it, everyone has a chance. Sure, it's unrealistic to expect a World Series parade in November down J street this year, but that doesn't mean we can't at least enjoy the fantasy for a little bit longer.

Ownership is in upheaval, they have the lowest payroll in baseball and have jettisoned 3 of their best and most popular players in the past 2 years. So yes, there are real reasons to be cynical. A 5-3 loss to the Dodgers on Opening Day is not one of them. With that being said, here are the silver linings from Opening Day. Deep breaths everyone, we got 161 of these to go:

- The first 3 innings of Edison Volquez: He lost his control in the 4th. In part due to a shrinking strike zone but Volquez was unable to mentally handle being squeezed. But before that, the guy was lights out. He was both high risk/high reward on Opening Day but I was encouraged by the high reward part. As he becomes more comfortable in Petco and a year with Balsley, I'm confident that the first 3 innings of Volquez will be more the guy we see.

- Cam Maybin: Boom Stick! 7th longest HR in Petco Park history. Win or lose, that was just a fun moment.

- Yonder Alonso: Got robbed of a base hit by Dee Gordon. But he hit the ball well. And played a pretty nice first base I thought.

- Jesus Guzman: 2 out hits will get you to Heaven. Got the Padres on the board for the first time this year with his 2-out double. He is suspect in the field without question. But that guy can straight out hit.

- It's Freaking Opening Day: CALM DOWN! The Padres aren't going to walk in 2 runs and commit 3 errors in a game very often. Unfortunately it came on Opening Day where there is a bigger microscope then normally. But despite falling behind 5-1, the Padres were able to make it a game.

Finally I leave you with this: There were 7 games played yesterday. And except for one that went 16 innings, more runs were scored in the Padres vs Dodgers game then any other game.

10 (Not So) Bold Predictions for the 2012 Padres Season

So here we are. It feels like it was just yesterday that we were watching the Cardinals somehow overtake the Rangers in Game 6 on their way to a World Series title. Since that time, Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes and CJ Wilson have all changed teams. Somebody's fever dream came to life in center field in Miami. And the Padres changed GM's and, soon enough, owners.

With the 2012 regular season mere hours away (for those of us in the Western Hemisphere anyway), here are 10 predictions, hopes, thoughts and rambles for the 2012 San Diego Padres. In no particular order. Other then this is the order I thought of them.

10) Andrew Cashner will be the closer by the end of the season.
Huston Street is the highest paid player on this team right now.

I'll give you a moment to let that sink in.

Welcome back. Street has not been great in Spring though I think he will settle in fine with Petco. I'm more basing this on the likelihood that, if the Padres are not in a division or wild card race come the trade deadline, Street, the highest valued Padre on the roster will likely be jettisoned to a contender in need. Which leaves Cashner and his 103 MPH fastball with an opening. I just don't think Byrnes traded the top prospect in the system for a middle reliever.

9) I will have no more than 3 rants about the Sunday giveaway being only for kids.
SERIOUSLY!?!?!? Like a grown man wouldn't enjoy a Padres Hot Wheels car or lunch box? Ugh, let's move on.

8) The Padres will have more than 1 All-Star.
My money right now would be on Maybin and Luebke. Both players are young and on the precipice of breaking out. The starting pitching in the National League is deep so it's a tough group to crack for Luebke, but as is typical many will pull out of the ASG for various reasons.

And speaking of Maybin

7) Cameron Maybin will become your favorite Padre.
If he isn't already, the fact that Maybin will be here for the long haul will certainly endear him to a fan base that has seen favorites like Peavy, Gonzalez and Bell leave San Diego. Maybin becomes the face of the on-field product. He's personable, funny, and makes highlight reel catches in CF. You will own his jersey by Aug. 1.

6) Orlando Hudson will say something stupid via Twitter.
This isn't really a bold prediction. This is more the equivalent of picking the #1 seed to beat the #16 seed. Yeah, you got that one right. But so did everyone else.

5) Zou Bisou Bisou will be someone's walkup music.
If wishing made it so. Sidenote: Did Betty Francis get to test out the Hodad's stand at Petco early?

4) The Swinging Friar will finally be recognized as the best mascot in baseball.
Even in the worst of times, the Swinging Friar makes me smile. He's hilarious. He's fun. He is what going to baseball games is about.

And he has a Frankenstein version of himself.

3) The Padres will reclaim the Vedder Cup.
Last year was a poor showing. A poor, poor showing indeed. 1-5 against the hated Mariners. And the 1 came on a 1-0 win with Maybin reaching base on a 3 ball walk. Revenge shall be ours. Or, you know, a .500 record would suffice.

2) The Padres will throw a no-hitter and hit for the cycle.
I make this prediction every year so I can't take too much credit for when this finally happens. But it's statistically crazy that it hasn't happened yet. I wrote about the Padres no-hitter woes last year. One day, it's going to happen. I just hope I'm not shopping in a Costco when it does.

My picks this year: Stauffer (No-Hitter); Maybin (Cycle)

1) The Padres will struggle to start the season but make things interesting in June.
The beginning of the season is not kind to the Padres. Outside of a ton of NL West games, the Padres face Philadelphia, Washington, Milwaukee, and Anaheim.

But then May 24th comes along. And the New York Mets. Followed by the Cubs then a June where they take on Seattle 6 times, Oakland, Houston and Colorado. If the Padres can tread water for the first two months, a strong June will make them, if not contenders, then at least interesting come the All Star Break.