5 Thoughts on 2011 Padres

Super Bowl XLV ended the NFL season, crowning the Green Bay Packers champions of the league.

But for those with diamonds in their mind and the smell of cut grass in their nose, yesterday's big game signified but one thing. Baseball is right around the corner.

The San Diego Padres first full workout is scheduled for Feb. 19th. But the universally accepted "start" of Spring Training happens this Sunday, Feb. 13th, when pitchers and catchers will report to Peoria, AZ to share parking and locker rooms with their arch-enemies, the Seattle Mariners! (ok, seriously, is there a more forced "rivalry" then Mariners vs Padres?) No. No there isn't.)

So, with Spring Training less than a week away, today we look at 5 thoughts/questions/ramblings on the 2011 Padres season.

1) Can this team compete for NL West again?

In a word, yes. Of course they can. Let's take a trip back for a second to February 2010. No publication, journalist, blogger, or talking E-Trade baby believed the Padres could do any better than last in the NL West. Even through my rose colored, homer glasses, I only aspired to a .500 season and perhaps a 3rd place finish. Now, we all know how those prognosticators predictions turned out.

Now, here we are in February 2011 and the same talking heads and scribes are picking a similar fate to the 2011 Padres. Dead last or 4th in the NL West. According to sports gambling site Sportsbook.com, the Padres have the same odds of winning the NL West as the Diamondbacks, at 12/1 (Giants favored at less than 2/1). But why? Because of turnover? The loss of Adrian Gonzalez? Miguel Tejada?

Obviously, the loss of Adrian Gonzalez is a hit. No way around that. But this isn't the NBA. One player does not a team make. I am no sabrematician (is that a term?). For a more in-depth analysis of Adrian's value, I would direct you to http://thesacrificebunt.com/ However, AGon's WAR (Wins Above Replacement Player) was 6.3). Let's now add in Eckstein and Tejada, arguably the two largest departures not named Adrian Gonzalez.

Eckstein: 1.4
Tejada: 1.8 (this number represents only his time in San Diego)

So, in three players the Padres loss 8.5 wins. The three key replacements? Orlando Hudson, Jason Barlett, and Cameron Maybin (obviously I realize Hawpe was brought in to play 1st with potentially having Jorge Cantu sharing time at 1st, more on that in a second).

Orlando Hudson: 0.4 (ok, not great but not terrible)
Jason Bartlett: 1.5
Cameron Maybin: 0.3
Hawpe/Cantu were both 0.0

That totals 2.2 wins. So, basically, the Padres are looking at losing, simply on statistics and on paper, 6 wins from 2010. Equalling 84 wins which was good enough for 3rd place in the NL West.

What do all these numbers mean? I'm not sure, I kind of got lost halfway through. But, my point is, while there has been substantial turnover, that turnover resulted in equal to or better players at key positions, 1st base notwithstanding. And I don't know about you, but in the course of 162 games, there are at least 6 games that turn on bizarro, weird, plays that can only be classified as luck. Denorfia's inside the park ground ball anyone?

What the Padres haven't lost is what was key to them winning 90 games in 2010. Pitching (in my mind, the starting rotation is better than a year ago, more on that soon) and defense, also better with the additions of Maybin, Barlett and O-Dog.

So to make a long story short (too late!), can they match their win total from a year ago? Yes, of course they can.

2) Can Mat Latos hold up for an entire season?

Mat Latos was on his way to what appeared to be a Cy Young type season. In the first half of 2010, Latos went 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA, and 0.96 WHIP. He had also already pitched 106 innings by the All-Star Break. This number already eclipsing the prediction that Fangraphs.com had of 87 IP for Latos. And it had been clear in Spring Training that Latos was going to limited in pitches in 2010, less he become the next Mark Prior. All of which would have been fine had the Padres been cellar dwelling as predicted by the All-Star Game. Which of course they weren't.

Thus, Latos was pushed to be the ace of the staff before he was ready or the team wanted him to be. And his second half numbers reflected that of a pitcher who's previous season high for IP was 122. Latos went 4-6 in the second half of the season, posting a 3.58 ERA with a 1.244 WHIP while increasing his SO/9 from 8.4 to 10.4 (read: more pitches), including losses in his final 5 starts (and yes, his run support was less than stellar during that stretch).

This was a natural and, dare I say with 20/20 vision, a predictable fall-off considering his increase in innings from his previous high of 122. He finished 2010 184 IP.

But now he's done it. Now, he's arm has had the experience of pitching 180+ innings in high stress games. And history is on his side (Mark Prior notwithstanding). Lincecum went from 146 IP and a 4.00 ERA to 227 IP the next year and a 2.62 ERA. Felix Hernandez went from 190 IP in 2007 to 238 IP in 2009, posting a 2.49 ERA.

Small sample size? Sure. But, provided Mat Latos stays healthy, there appears to be no ceiling to his potential and all the reason to believe that the 1st half of 2010 can be carried over to an entire season in 2011.

3) What will the starting rotation look like by September?

2010 Projected Starting Rotation, in March
1) Chris Young
2) Jon Garland
3) Kevin Correia
4) Clayton Richard
5) Mat Latos

2010 Starting Rotation, in September
1) Mat Latos
2) Jon Garland
3) Tim Stauffer
4) Corey Luebke
5) Chris Young (newly off the DL)

The point. It hardly matters what the starting rotation looks like in March. It won't be the same by the end of the year. Injuries, slumps, trades. Any variety of things can mix up the rotation. Perhaps that is no more true then for a team like the Padres, who have so many young pitchers. The Padres added Aaron Harang (a pitcher with a down year but upside who I think will have a rebound year in Petco) and Dustin Moseley. This, coupled with Tim Stauffer, who is finally blossoming into the 1st round draft pick the Padres believed him to be and Clayton Richard (how good does that Peavy trade look now?), and the Padres rotation looks solid.

But what if Richard regresses ala Correia? This is where I believe the strength of the Padres to be. Pitching depth. Last year we got a taste of Luebke and I think we all liked what we saw. And of course, a bit down the road, Casey Kelly is waiting in the wings.

With any luck, the Padres starting rotation by September will include Luebke at minimum. Beyond that, who knows?

4) How many pounds of Garlic Fries will I consume in 2011?

The over/under is at 20.5. Take the over. Way over.

5) Can someone give Chase Headley a day off?

Chase Headley played in 160 games in 2010. There are 162 games in a season. The positive. Tremendous health and and consistently from a key infield position. But this overwork can clearly led to a fall off in production.

Or did it?

He had a tough September, though that could be said for the entire team. But in July and August he hit .300 and .286. This while being bounced around the lineup with no clear natural position in the lineup. Chase Headley will never be the power threat from the 3rd base position that is stereotypical. But if you want power, well friend, you follow the wrong team in the wrong park.

So can he get a day off? The addition of Cantu would seem to indicate that, yes, Buddy Black will not let Headley play 160 games again, keeping him fresh for what we hope is another September run.


Spring is right around the corner. And spring brings about it optimism. Until I see tangible evidence to the contrary, I choose to be optimistic about the 2011 Padres.

Don’t Touch the Stove! …it’s hot.

*Today marks a red letter day in the history of Left Coast Bias. Today, I am happy to present the first guest article in the blogs history. David Israel is a fellow Padres fan (I suppose that was obvious), a member of the legal community and, as this article shows, a pretty damn good writer. So, without further adieu, David, take it away!

By David Israel
With the Padres moves likely winding down (pick a 1B, any 1B), and with time on my hands, it’s time to take a look at the hot stove for one of the most active teams on the market. The Padres were surprising players; while there were no big acquisitions, the Padres have made some major moves, and despite the loss of Adrian, should put up a solid mid-level performance on a low-level payroll. So, let’s take a look.

The Adrian deal: Look, it was bound to happen. Enough has been written about it, and if 2-3 of those guys pan out in the next 2-4 years, the Padres will be better off for having made this deal. Casey Kelly looks legit, and the other parts will eventually help. Eric Patterson as the PTBNL stings a little (was hoping for an unrealistic Ellsbury move), but overall, this deal looks downright decent.

GM Hoyer also shored up the rotation, which suffered the losses of Kevin Correia and Chris Young. Aaron Harang has always been one of those guys I can’t help but think has been consistently undervalued; I like him in Petco Park for the price we’re paying. The rotation could probably use one more free agent brought in for the back end, to form up with Latos, Richard, Harang, Stauffer, and perhaps Leblanc. But hopefully not Leblanc; I just don’t trust him yet full time.

The middle of the field has done a full change; Maybin is Gwynn with slightly less defense, but more than enough to cover some ground in Petco’s CF. The bat upgrade he brings over AGJ is well worth it; for Maybin and Bartlett, we gave up 4 pieces we were never going to use, plus two minor leaguers with uncertain futures. That’s a plus; Bartlett will bring some stability to a position where the Pads have been lacking for a long time. This blog has already posted stat comparisons; take a look below.

My one suggestion for the off season when I planned on writing this a week ago was that the Padres should sign Orlando Hudson for a few years. While they paid him more than I would have projected, O-dog will bring a veteran leadership to this team that would have been left to only Ryan Ludwick. Good signing for a player who will fill a need, and provide savvy leadership. He is also familiar with the NL West, from his time with the Dodgers. A little expensive, but a good signing.

What’s left for the off season? A first baseman, clearly- look for Troy Glaus to be slotted in to that role. He made $1.75M last year, and could likely be had for $2-3 M this year. The defense won’t be Adrian (who may not be as good as numbers indicated- the lateral movement wasn’t great last year), but it will be adequate. I’d rather see a cheaper option than Derek Lee, but it would be fun if Lee and C. Young ended up on the team together, if only so they could relive their brawl from 2007. We could also use some of the Gunslinger’s old leftover magic in pulling a bullpen piece or two off the scrap heap.

So can the Padres compete with this team? With the Rockies and Giants in the division, probably not. So, what would I like to see happen? Before the Magglio Ordonez signing in Detroit, Ryan Ludwick seemed like he could be a fit there. Both Ludwick and Bell could (and should) be moved before the deadline, to save on payroll and bring in some help for the future. I love Bell as a player, and as a part of the San Diego community. But he deserves a shot to compete, and should get it.

Overall, a nice hot stove season for the Padres, and it should be a nice year of baseball in 2011. And, it’s only 2 months until the three best words, ever: pitchers and catchers.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Your 2011 Middle Infield!

By now you have heard that the Padres middle infield will look quite different then it did in 2010. Gone is the rotating door at SS (though, once Tejada was traded for that door was pretty much shut) and the spark plug at 2B.

In their place, Jed Hoyer has made two moves cementing the 2011 infield and, when coupled with bringing in Cameron Maybin, solidifying everything up the middle for 2010.

So, who are these new Padres and how do they compare to the 2010 versions? Let's go to a Tale of the Tape!

Jason Bartlett


Bartlett is a career .281 hitter, all in the American League. 2009 was clearly the standout year, in which he hit .320 with 14 HR. But, more importantly, he stole 30 bases that year. Frankly, I could care less about the HR's. If you are looking for a 40 HR guy to be brought into Petco, perhaps you are following the wrong team.

But, more importantly, he is a good defensive SS. He has a career UZR of 18.7, though admittedly his 2010 was a down year, both defensively and offensively.

Bartlett also brings with him consistency at a position that was anything but in 2010 for the Padres. 4 different players started at SS for the Padres in 2010, none of which started more than 62 games. In comparing Bartlett to the Padres SS of 2010, it would break down like so:

Bartlett vs Cabrera
Bartlett BA: .254
Cabrera BA: .208 (in 241 PA)

Bartlett SB: 11 (in 17 chances)
Cabrera SB: 10 (in 16 chances)

Bartlett Fielding PCT: .977
Cabrera Fielding PCT: .969 (Cabrera committed 7 errors, third highest on the team in 2010, despite playing in only 67)

Bartlett vs Jerry Hairston Jr.
Bartlett BA: .254
Hairston Jr.: .244 (476 PA)

Bartlett SB: 11
Hairston SB: 9 (out of 15 chances)

Bartlett Fielding PCT: .977
Hairston Jr. Fielding PCT .976 (at SS only. Also committed 6 errors in 62 games at SS)

Bartlett vs Tejada
Bartlett BA: .254
Tejada BA: .268 (by the way, if you had asked me to guess Tejada's BA based on my memory of how good he was in the last two months, I probably would have said about .980. So, rose colored glasses I guess).

Bartlett SB: 11
Tejada SB: 2 (in 2 chances)

Bartlett Fielding PCT: .977
Tejada Fielding PCT: .987 (committing only 3 errors)

Now, you could make the argument that the Padres could have simply brought Tejada back but keep these two things in mind. 1) Prior to coming to San Diego, Tejada was having an absolutely awful year in Baltimore.
2) He cost the Giants $6.5 million for 2011.

So, I would argue that the Padres, in giving up four players, mostly relievers made a great move in finding a player that can provide solid and stable play at one of the most important positions on the diamond. And call me crazy, but between Darren Balsley and Petco Park, the Padres can find serviceable to great relievers plenty of places. Now, call me crazy but I feel like its easier to find bullpen arms then it is starting Shortstops.


This brings us to the next major move, that being the signing of the O-Dog.

Orlando Hudson signed a two-year, $11.5 million contract to be the Padres starting second basemen. Hudson hit .278 in 2010 for the Twins but, much more importantly, the Padres get a 4 time Gold Glover who can get on base (career OPS .770).

For comparison sake, here is Orlando Hudson compared to David Eckstein.
Hudson BA: .278
Eckstein BA: .267

Hudson OPS: .710
Eckstein OPS: .647

And again, let's not forget the Gold Glover caliber defense the Padres get in Hudson.

The Padres are better right now at three major positions (2B, SS, CF) and continue to look for a 1B (heard Brad Hawpe and Troy Glaus mentioned on XX1090 today as more names to throw into that rumor mill).

Suddenly, year 1 of the post-AGon era is looking a bit brighter.

Now is the Winter (Meetings) of Our Discontent

When the Winter Meetings began in Florida, Jed Hoyer made arguably the biggest move of this MLB offseason when he traded perennial All-Star Adrian Gonzalez to the Boston Red Sox. Now, I have made my thoughts known on the Adrian trade but I will add this one last thing.

Seeing Adrian in a Red Sox jersey was not easy to see. Look, I know its for the best blah blah blah, still not easy. But I am happy for Adrian as he will finally get the national attention he deserves. That has already begun as Adrian Gonzalez found himself on Jim Rome's radio show this morning. So, to that I say, good for Adrian.

Now, onto the Padres holes. Let's not kid ourselves, there are multiple. This morning, Padres manager Bud Black called XX1090 and answered this question "If you had to write the lineup today, how would you do it?" The answer:

1B: Kyle Blanks
2B: Logan Forsythe
SS: Evereth Cabrera
3B: Chase Headley
LF: Ryan Ludwick
CF: Cameron Maybin
RF: Will Venable
C: Nick Hundley

Now, I don't know about you, but that middle infield is nothing I would feel comfortable starting the 2011 season with. And now steps are being taken to fix that.

Via Corey Brock, MLB.com's Padres beat writer (@FollowthePadres on Twitter) reported tonight that a deal appears to be in place for the Padres to obtain Tampa Bay Rays SS Jason Bartlett for Adam Russell and Cesar Ramos. Before we go on its worth noting that this deal has not been officially announced yet but, assuming this happens I have to say that I love this move.

Jason Bartlett, in a down year in 2010, hit .254 with 4 HR. In 2009, Bartlett .320 with 14 HR. His career line shows the potential for consistent offense from the SS position which, prior to the Tejada trade, was something sorely missing in 2010.

More importantly, however, is that it shows that when Jed Hoyer says that the Padres are not giving up on 2011 despite the Adrian trade, he means it. Is Jason Bartlett an Adrian Gonzalez? Of course not. But making moves of this nature and trading for a SS who has been an All-Star does show, at least to this fan, that Jed Hoyer has not attention of simply packing it in for 2011.

So, the hole at SS appears to have been filled. Rumors have been swirling that the Padres are looking at available 1B including Derrek Lee, Lyle Overbay and Adam Laroche. And Bud Black did not discredit the idea of bringing back Eckstein to play 2B.

So yes, Adrian is gone, but Jed Hoyer and the Padres staff are being very active at the Winter Meetings. And despite the small payroll they have to work with, effort is being made. And frankly, all I want to see is some effort to field a competitive team in 2011. Jason Bartlett is step one.