MLB Prop Bets 2012

If you follow this blog or its related Twitter feed, you may notice that I like sports gambling. I like doing it, though my trips to Vegas are fewer and farther between these days. But I like knowing what the odds are, how the odds shift based on various pieces of information coming out. And I love me some props. Prop bets are both fun and sometimes goofy (this past Super Bowl had a prop for how many times Giselle Bundchen would be shown during the game). Last year I wrote the first annual Left Coast Bias MLB Prop Post.

Last year I went 4-4. Respectable, but we can do better.

As always, this is for entertainment purposes only.

Who Will Hit Most HR's in 2012?
My Pick: Matt Kemp 18/1
Why? Kemp finished 3rd last year in MLB in HR with 39. This was also good enough for best in the National League. Despite that, you are getting 18/1 for him to lead the league this year. While Bautista has won this two years in a row now, getting 18/1 on a player as good as Kemp is a value bet.

Adrian Gonzalez BA O/U .305
My Pick: Over
Why? Adrian Gonzalez saw a 40 point increase in BA in his first year in Boston. While his power did not see the uptick many predicted, Gonzalez still proved he was one of the best hitters in baseball. Caution however, that prior to last year that last time Gonzalez hit over .300 was 2006. That being said, I'll take my chances with the smaller ballpark and the protection throughout the lineup.

Justin Verlander SO O/U 225.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Here is Verlander's last three seasons strikeout totals since the Tigers stopped limiting his innings: 269, 219, 250. Once out of three seasons he went under, and that time he only went under by 6 SO. The two seasons he went over he went WAY over. I'll bank on those seasons.

Matt Kemp O/U HR 33.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Bautista hit 43 HR's last year to lead MLB. If I'm picking Kemp to do that this year, I have to believe he goes over 33.5.

Cameron Maybin Total SB O/U 34.5
My Pick: Under
Why? Maybin stole 40 bases last season. His previous high in the Majors? 9. We know Maybin can run. We know the Padres like to run. But 35 stolen bases is a ton. More a hunch then anything though wouldn't be shocked if Maybin matched 40 again.

Huston Street Total Saves O/U 30.5
My Pick: Under
Why? Andrew. Cashner. Whether Street is traded or not, I think there is a better than outside shot that Cashner is the closer by the end of the season. Street has been struggling in Spring Training. The argument for the over is, of course, the fact that the Padres don't play many high scoring games. Meaning they have ample chances for saves. It's just a matter of who will receive those saves.

San Diego Padres Regular Season Wins O/U 73.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Because I'm a sucker. But seriously. The Padres won 71 games last season despite the Brad Hawpe and Ryan Ludwick experience, and sudden down year from Mat Latos, and essentially no offense. However, their Pythogorean W/L was 79-83. This year, this team has the chance to be sneaky decent. A lot of young, highly touted young players. If Headley and Venable breakout, if Maybin continues to improve, if Luebke is the ace people think he can be, if Alonso is as advertised at first, etc etc. In a worst case scenario, this team wins 71 games like last year. Considering how many close games they play, sheer luck could increase a 71 win season to a 74 win season. A few things break the right way and this is a .500 team primed for 2013.

And finally...

Odds to Win World Series: San Diego Padres 70/1

Sometimes you have to put your money where your mouth is. You just never know:

Looking In on the Pre-Season Bets

Back before the season started I looked up a few pre-season proposition bets for the upcoming MLB season and wrote a blog post about it. As we are under 3 weeks before the season ends, I thought it would be fun to look back and relieve those picks. And for you all to see why I work for a living vs gamble for a living.


Most Regular Season HR's by Any Player: O/U 46.5
My Pick: Over
How's It Looking? For the second year in a row, Jose Bautista is leading MLB in HR's. Whether that's because pitchers haven't learned to stop throwing him first pitch fastballs, sign stealing or some other reason is irrelevant. For purposes of this blog, what is relevant is he has 41 HR's as of this writing. So with less than 3 weeks away we are looking at 6 more HR's. Doable...though he is currently in a 5 game HR drought. Time, my friend, is a ticking.

Most Regular Season Wins by Any Pitcher: O/U 20.5
My Pick: Over
How's It Looking? WINNER. WINNER. CHICKEN. DINNER! Justin Verlander is already at 22 wins which means "we goin' Sizzler, we goin' Sizzler." It's the era of the pitcher. Never mind that my thought was it would be one of Philly's four starters. Just ignore that part and enjoy your steak.


Albert Pujols Total HR's: O/U 38.5
My Pick: Over
How's It Looking? Pujols is sitting at 34 as we speak. The reasoning for going over is, A) it's Albert Freaking Pujols, and; B) Contract Year. This would already be a winner had it not been for his mid-season injury. Even with that injury, though, we are only 5 HR's away from cashing in. The bad news: He hasn't gone deep since Sept. 1.

Adrian Gonzalez Total HR's: O/U 36.5
My Pick: Over...barely
How's It Looking? Not so good. I tempered my pick on this one but landed on over for this reason: He had gone 30, 36, 40, 31 over the past four years while playing at Petco Park. Moving to Fenway, the thought was he would increasing those HR totals. Despite the MVP type season he is having, his HR total is at 24, on pace for his lowest total in the past 5 years.

Buster Posey Total HR's: O/U 19.5
My Pick: Under
How's It Looking? Great! Thanks to a season ending injury in May, Posey managed only 4 HR's this season. Fun sidenote. In the article I just Google'd to get the date of Posey's injury, the story mentioned how the Giants were "hesitant to say this was season-ending." Oh Giants. So young, so naive.

4 Aces (Halladay, Oswalt, Lee, Hamels) Total Regular Season Wins: O/U 59.5
My Pick: Under
How's It Looking? The thought for going under here had more to do with their bullpen. What ended up happening was the Philadelphia offense wasn't quite what I expected, but then again, neither was Lee. Still time for them to hit the over here, but as Philadelphia has all but secured the NL East, not seeing a lot of starts for these 4 down the stretch.

Heath Bell Regular Season Saves: O/U 35.5
My Pick: Over
How's It Looking? WINNER. WINNER. CHICKEN. DINNER. Bell, in two years as a full time closer, had yet to save less than 40. And while this year may be the year, he is already at 36 saves despite the fact that he's been MIA for long stretches of time this season (through no fault of his own).

San Diego Padres Regular Season Wins: O/U 75.5
My Pick: Over
How's It Looking? Well, if they go undefeated the rest of the season...forget it. I'm embarrassed. Let's move on.






*FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY

Padres Walk the Freedom Trail

Sometime in November/December of 2010 the San Diego Padres schedule was released. One of the first things I like to look at when this happens is the interleague schedule. I realize interleague has distractors. But I for one am a fan. I love the weekends when the Cubs play the White Sox, or San Francisco plays Oakland.

While reviewing the Padres 2011 interleague schedule, one series stood out. June 20th-22nd. Boston, MA vs the Red Sox.










I'd been to Wrigley, old Yankee Stadium and Dodger Stadium (among others). So this was a no brainer. Any baseball fan worth their salt has Fenway Park on their bucket list. And my favorite team was going to be playing there for the first time since 2004.











This was a no brainer.

My day at Fenway began with a tour of the park. Fenway Park offers tours on the hour, even on game day, for $12. Not a bad way to start a day at the park.

The first thing you see is Yawkey Way. If you have ever been to Wrigley Field (and really, the surrounding neighborhood) then this will feel instantly familiar. A stadium built into a residential area, Yawkey Way has a street fair atmosphere.










And my first view of Fenway Park from inside.









Have you heard the Red Sox have won some World Series? Because if you haven't, there was really no way to miss it at Fenway.









Ok, the Green Monster is pretty cool. Even if it is only 310 feet from home plate.










The view from atop the Green Monster. According to our tour guide, fans have to enter a lottery for the right to buy tickets on top of the Monster. If they are chosen in that lottery, you get 4 tickets. Total. For the season.









Look, a table that looks like home plate!










The "Teammates" statue outside Gate B. Statue is of Johnny Pesky, Dom Dimaggio, Ted Williams and Bobby Doerr.









And the Ted Williams statue. The first of many San Diego/Boston connections throughout the decades. Ted Williams that is. Not the statue.












Finally, it was game time. A view from my seats.











A few notes from the game.

- Unfortunately the only game I was able to go to was the first game in the series. But, I did get to see something historic. This was the first game in MLB history that ended in a 3-3 tie after 6 innings. Because the bottom of the 7th never happened. IT NEVER HAPPENED!

- Did a little pre-gaming at the Cask N' Flagon thanks to a suggestion from Bernie Wilson.

- Dave Roberts received a very nice ovation from the Boston crowd when he was announced, for obvious reasons. If you don't know why that's obvious, chances are you are not reading a blog about baseball.

- Adrian Gonzalez is a monster and probably the best player in baseball. He is tailor made for Fenway Park, which is something we all knew. But to see it in person and see him play pepper with the monster is something to watch. No matter how good Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo become, it still may not have been enough.

- Overall, the Boston fans I meet were knowledgable and passionate baseball fans. The most common question I got: when Adrian Gonzalez plays in San Diego, will I boo him? My answer was no. I'm an Adrian fan. But I tempered that answer by pointing out that this is not a view shared by all in San Diego.

- That's not to say that there weren't some jerks. A fan two rows in front of me, as the game went on, became increasing loud (and presumably, drunk). At one point, late in the game (after the inning that didn't happen), his buddy asked him "who is pitching tomorrow?" (which, for the record, was scheduled to be Beckett at that point). His answer, "who cares, we're playing the Padres." I thought about that guy with a wry smile on my flight home as I watched the Padres beat Boston on MLB Network (thanks Continental Airlines and your Direct TV!)


I'll leave you with this. I got to talking to some Red Sox fans at the Cask N' Flagon before the game. The conversation at one point turned to the 2004 ALCS. I assume this happens a lot in Boston. It was something to see as their eyes lit up as if they were remembering their favorite Christmas as a kid.

I want that feeling. So Jed, do whatever you have to do. Build the farm system, trade away Bell, sign expensive draft picks. I can be patient. But one day, I want someone to strike up a conversation with me in some bar in San Diego and have the conversation turn to the Padres first World Series. And I want to feel what those guys felt.

I'll be patient, Jed. But I want that.

Rooting for Evil

As I type this, the Padres first game of a 6 game road trip is in a rain delay in Washington D.C.

Luckily for me, I have MLB.tv, which allowed to me switch to the Boston vs Detroit game just in time to see Boston score 5 runs in the top of the 3rd inning. While watching, my mind began to wander, as it is want to do from time to time. So, if you will excuse the momentary deviation from the typical Padres talk, I offer this quandary.

What if the Red Sox make the World Series?

Despite their awful start to the season, the Red Sox find themselves tied for first in the AL East. Based merely on my own eyeball test on the handful of games I've seen, their offense is as good as advertised, and as I write this Carl Crawford hits his 4th HR, a 2-run shot. Assuming Crawford can get hot, this offense is all the better.

But this isn't about the ins and outs of the Red Sox season. I'm not the guy to talk about that as I don't follow this team (or really, the American League) to offer in depth analysis beyond what a boxscore or highlights reveal.

My point is this. The Red Sox appear to be, if not the best, then one of the best teams in the AL. And yes, it's only Memorial Day, but it looks like they are only getting better, not worst.

So, the quandary then? Adrian Gonzalez.


This still looks weird to me.











I'm still an Adrian Gonzalez fan. I know to some this is already blasphemy. I can't help it. I like him and as far as I'm concerned he left San Diego on good terms. Call me soft if you must.

To that end, I want to see Adrain Gonzalez win a World Series at some point in his career. He is one of the games best players and a player I have invested a lot in from an emotional standpoint. It is sad to me when any sports great players retire without that ring, unless I absolutely loathe that player (looking at you Eli Manning with your Super Bowl ring you don't deserve) when it gets to the end of their career, I root for those players. Many a time, in games I otherwise had little to no rooting interest in, I find myself pulling for the fading veteran still looking for that ring (Jerome Bettis being a great example and the first one I thought of).

So I want Adrian to win. But here's the rub. He plays for a team that I cannot stand. Most teams I'm indifferent about. Does anyone have a strong opinion about the Astros or Twins? not unless you are a fan of those teams. But for me, the list of teams that I actually hate is short: Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox.

End of list.

The Red Sox are the most recent addition to that list. In the interest of full disclosure, in 2004 they were nowhere near this list. I pulled for them and their 90ish years of failure. I got caught up in the 2004 ALCS. Who didn't? Down 3 games to the Yankees (who I never liked but began hating in 1998...about mid October if memory serves) they pulled off one of the greatest comebacks in MLB history.

Then came the books, and talk shows, and the fans. My God the fans. They would not shut up about the Red Sox. They became insufferable. The team then dropped the GNP of Guatemala on Dice K. They had become another Yankees, engaged in an ongoing arms race with their rivals to the south. It wasn't until I went to a Padres game vs Boston that my hate for the Red Sox reached it's apex. The fans were obnoxious, arrogant and all together infuriating.

But now one of my favorite players in baseball plays for one of my least favorite teams. And not just one of my least favorite teams. A team I hate. Loathe. Wish bad things on.

So, if the Red Sox make the World Series, where will my rooting interest lie? I suppose it depends on who is in the World Series from the NL. But the possibility is there and I fear I will find myself pulling for the Red Sox solely based on Adrian Gonzalez, despite my best intentions to the contrary.

So I ask you, do you want to see Adrian Gonzalez win a World Series? Do you not care now that "Padres" is not written on his jersey? Do you have the Red Sox to a point that it is irrelevant who is on the team?

The Case for Petco Park

The San Diego Padres scored 13 runs today on 23 hits.

Let me say that again.

The 2011, shutout 8 times, San Diego Padres scored 13 runs on 23 hits.

It should come as no surprise that they were on the road when this happened, playing in Miller Park, a far more favorable offensive setting.

The 23 hits were the most for the Padres since 08/12/03 vs Atlanta. It was the first 20 hit game for the Padres since getting 22 hits vs Milwaukee on 08/11/09.

It was a good day.

And now they travel to Colorado, as hitter friendly a park as there is. Players appear, using nothing more than my own observations, appear to be hitting the ball better, harder, and with just a bit more confidence (most notably Ludwick and Hawpe who have been much maligned to start this season).



This kind of offensive output on the road lead many today to the obvious questions/complaints about Petco Park. There is a loud, though I argue still minority opinion that Petco Park should be modified in some way to lend itself to more offense. This argument was given a local media voice in the form of Darren Smith of XX1090 when he posted on Facebook "Padres scored 22 runs in three games at Miller...21 in their six-game home stand. Nope, PETCO doesn't matter." This was followed by a lengthy discussion in which the common refrain from those in favor of modification point to the lack of "excitement" in games played at Petco Park.

This argument really got started in force on Saturday night, where, after being shut out by the Diamondbacks (the Padres 8th shut out of the season thus far), Chase Headley was quoted in the San Diego Union Tribune “I don’t care who you bring into this ballpark, it’s not going to be an offensive club, it’s not. So we as an organization understand what type of team we have to have to win and it’s always going to be based around pitching and defense. So I don’t necessarily think it’s a personnel problem.”

I've personally had this argument more than once and, since the issue is complicated and getting all my points across in 140 characters was proving to be impossible, allow this to be the case for keeping Petco Park as it is.

1) The Petco Park Advantage
Petco Park opened in 2004 marking this the 8th season in the park. In 7 complete seasons in Petco, the Padres have 2 NL Western Division titles. In their entire franchise history prior to moving to Petco they had 3 ('84, '96, '98). They accomplished this despite never having a team salary higher than $73 million (2008).

If you judge success not by division titles but purely by wins, then keep in mind that the Padres 90 win 2010 was the 4th highest win total in franchise history, despite a paltry $45 million payroll. (It's worth noting that the worst year for the Padres came in 2008 where they won 63 games while spending $73 million).

So was it coincidence that the most successful stretch in Padres history coincided with the opening of Petco Park? I seriously doubt that. The Padres have committed to a strategy as a franchise to build teams around good pitching and defense and a focus on small ball and speed. To that end, the Padres are consistently near the top of MLB in team ERA and, more recently, SB's. Petco has turned average pitchers into league leaders and saw only the 4th Cy Young in franchise history in 2006 with Jake Peavy. Pitching and defense. That's Padres and Petco baseball. And it has, for the most part, proved to be successful.

2) The Money Game
Let's live in the real world. The Padres will never be one of the biggest spenders in baseball. Jed Hoyer has said publicly that, eventually, the Padres eventually will operate around $70-75 million a year. For reference, this year a payroll of $75 million would put the Padres 20th in MLB in team payroll.

Furthermore, of the top 10 player salaries in MLB this year, only 2 of those players (CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay) are pitchers. The point? Offense cost money. Money the Padres don't have and won't have anytime soon (thanks John Moores!).

So, maintaing Petco Park as a pitchers park allows the Padres to continue to utilize the pitching and defense strategy while being able to work within the financial reality in which they operate. Ryan Howard cost money. Aaron Harang? Considerably less.

3) Atmospheric Conditions
The jewel of downtown San Diego is Petco Park. It was the catalyst for one of the most successful neighborhood renovation projects in the United States. It's aesthetically pleasing being located in the Gaslamp Quarter and near the San Diego Bay. Beautiful and quintessentially San Diego. The location could not have been better.

Except that it is probably the primary culprit for the lack of offense in Petco Park.

It's not a surprise nor a secret that Petco plays less as a pitchers park during the day time. What's missing during the day? Marine layer. Thick sea air that moves in each night and essentially acts as quicksand to fly balls. As a piece of purely anecdotal example, last year, Adrian Gonzalez did not hit one homerun at home aft 8:00pm. That's not coincidence.

So unless you are willing to move Petco Park to La Mesa or move the fences in 100 ft, it may not much matter.

4) Winning Breeds Excitement
Finally, there is the argument that Padres baseball = boring baseball. This is obviously a more subjective point. But, dare I say, that offense doesn't make a team exciting. Winning does. The Padres play, more often than not, close games. A byproduct of low scoring games no doubt. Which would seem to translate to games that are often up in the air until the 9th inning. Which would seem to translate to excitement. But, beyond the brand of baseball the Padres play, I would argue that winning, no matter the score, is exciting. Last year the Padres were near dead last in team BA yet won 90 games and was one of the more enjoyable seasons in recent memory (from a personal level).

Considering the Padres are 7-14 at home, no argument that this year's Padres, to this point (today's game being the obvious exception) have been boring. But I argue that they are boring because they are losing. Call me crazy, but I'll take 2-1 wins over 13-12 losses everyday.

I beg to differ with Chase Headley. This year, it is the personnel. Doesn't mean this team can't turn it around. As a team they are hitting far below average and it stands to reason that a course correction is coming (if not already here based on the series in Milwaukee). But when every everyday player other than one (Bartlett) is on pace for 100k's, you can put that team in any park from Coors to Williamsburg and it won't much matter.

So I say, keep the fences where they are. Adapt to the park, don't make the park adapt to the team.

MLB Props and Other Fun Bar Debates

I like prop bets. Not as a lifestyle per se. Just as a conversation starter. One of my favorite things about the Super Bowl is the wackiness of the various prop bets (O/U length of time for National Anthem; Color of Gatorade poured on winning coach; etc).

So, as we are less than 48 hours away from Opening Day, I thought a fun way to kill some time would be to look at some various MLB prop bets.* All lines via Sportsbook.com

Without further adieu, and in no particular order:

Most Regular Season HRs by Any Player
O/U 46.5
- Last year, Jose Bautista came out of nowhere to hit 54 HRs. Next closest. 42, by Albert Pujols. Coming in 3rd was Konerko with 39. That said, I'd take the UNDER. We are in the era of the pitcher and beyond the era of steroids.

Most Regular Season Wins by Any Pitcher
O/U 20.5
- OVER. Way over. Last year, 2 pitchers (C.C. and Halladay) won 21 games. But, including those two, 9 players had 18 wins or more. In the years 2000-2009, there were 34 20-game winners. This year, one team could have 4 of them alone. For the same reason we go under with HR, we go over here. At least one pitcher will win 21 games this year.

Albert Pujols Total HRs
O/U 38.5
- I don't know how much stock you put into the whole "contract year" thing. I know I've heard that there really is no statistical data that backs up the idea that players in a contract year outperform their average. But if ever someone was motivated to show they were worth $20 million plus per year, isn't it this guy? Is there anyway he DOESN'T hit 40 HRs? Take the OVER.

Adrian Gonzalez Total HRs
O/U 36.5
- Between 2007-2010, AGon has hit 30, 36, 40, 31 HRs respectively. And I don't think I need to remind anyone in this audience where he played 81 games a year during that stretch (not to mention equally cavernous parks in SF and LA). Now he moves to a park with these dimensions: 315 to Left (plus Green Monster), 379 Left-Center, 380 Right-Center, and 302 down the Right Field line. Yes he moves to a bigger market, more attention, more pressure. But he leaves behind facing guys like Jimeneaz, Lincecum, Cain, and Kershaw. I say OVER, but not by much.

Buster Posey Total HRs
O/U 19.5
- He hit 18 HRs in 2010 in 108 games. But now pitchers have had a year to face him, watch tape on him and scout him. Then again, so has Posey. Still, he loses the element of surprise and he plays in a big park. I go UNDER, but not by much.

4 Aces (Halladay, Oswalt, Lee, Hamels) Total Regular Season Wins
O/U 59.5
- This is one of the most intriguing and interesting props available in my opinion. Basically, an OVER bet is saying you expect these four guys to average 15 wins a season. Before you jump at the chance to take this, let me say this. Jose Contreas is starting the season as the Phillies closer. And, when healthy, Brad Lidge is their closer. These four guys are aces, no doubt. But thats a lot of wins for a bullpen that ranked 10th in the NL last year to hang on to. I say UNDER.

Heath Bell Regular Season Saves
O/U 35.5
- As a full time closer, Bell has yet to save under 40 (42, 47). This number seems way to low and, barring injury, should be eclipsed easily. Take the OVER.

And finally...

San Diego Padres Regular Season Wins
O/U 75.5
- An under bet basically says that you think the Padre would drop 15 games from a year ago. For any team, that is a substantial drop off. And if you think this, you are likely basing most of that on the loss of Adrian Gonzalez. Look, that's a big loss, no way around that. But keep in mind, the Padres won 90 games a year ago, despite scoring only 665 runs all year (good for 22nd in MLB). Padres won with pitching (in my opinion as good if not better than last year) and defense (way better up the middle). I don't know that they can win 90 games without some luck like they had a year ago. But I don't think they play 6 games under .500 either. Take the OVER.







*For Entertainment Purposes Only

5 Thoughts on 2011 Padres

Super Bowl XLV ended the NFL season, crowning the Green Bay Packers champions of the league.

But for those with diamonds in their mind and the smell of cut grass in their nose, yesterday's big game signified but one thing. Baseball is right around the corner.

The San Diego Padres first full workout is scheduled for Feb. 19th. But the universally accepted "start" of Spring Training happens this Sunday, Feb. 13th, when pitchers and catchers will report to Peoria, AZ to share parking and locker rooms with their arch-enemies, the Seattle Mariners! (ok, seriously, is there a more forced "rivalry" then Mariners vs Padres?) No. No there isn't.)

So, with Spring Training less than a week away, today we look at 5 thoughts/questions/ramblings on the 2011 Padres season.

1) Can this team compete for NL West again?

In a word, yes. Of course they can. Let's take a trip back for a second to February 2010. No publication, journalist, blogger, or talking E-Trade baby believed the Padres could do any better than last in the NL West. Even through my rose colored, homer glasses, I only aspired to a .500 season and perhaps a 3rd place finish. Now, we all know how those prognosticators predictions turned out.

Now, here we are in February 2011 and the same talking heads and scribes are picking a similar fate to the 2011 Padres. Dead last or 4th in the NL West. According to sports gambling site Sportsbook.com, the Padres have the same odds of winning the NL West as the Diamondbacks, at 12/1 (Giants favored at less than 2/1). But why? Because of turnover? The loss of Adrian Gonzalez? Miguel Tejada?

Obviously, the loss of Adrian Gonzalez is a hit. No way around that. But this isn't the NBA. One player does not a team make. I am no sabrematician (is that a term?). For a more in-depth analysis of Adrian's value, I would direct you to http://thesacrificebunt.com/ However, AGon's WAR (Wins Above Replacement Player) was 6.3). Let's now add in Eckstein and Tejada, arguably the two largest departures not named Adrian Gonzalez.

Eckstein: 1.4
Tejada: 1.8 (this number represents only his time in San Diego)

So, in three players the Padres loss 8.5 wins. The three key replacements? Orlando Hudson, Jason Barlett, and Cameron Maybin (obviously I realize Hawpe was brought in to play 1st with potentially having Jorge Cantu sharing time at 1st, more on that in a second).

Orlando Hudson: 0.4 (ok, not great but not terrible)
Jason Bartlett: 1.5
Cameron Maybin: 0.3
Hawpe/Cantu were both 0.0

That totals 2.2 wins. So, basically, the Padres are looking at losing, simply on statistics and on paper, 6 wins from 2010. Equalling 84 wins which was good enough for 3rd place in the NL West.

What do all these numbers mean? I'm not sure, I kind of got lost halfway through. But, my point is, while there has been substantial turnover, that turnover resulted in equal to or better players at key positions, 1st base notwithstanding. And I don't know about you, but in the course of 162 games, there are at least 6 games that turn on bizarro, weird, plays that can only be classified as luck. Denorfia's inside the park ground ball anyone?

What the Padres haven't lost is what was key to them winning 90 games in 2010. Pitching (in my mind, the starting rotation is better than a year ago, more on that soon) and defense, also better with the additions of Maybin, Barlett and O-Dog.

So to make a long story short (too late!), can they match their win total from a year ago? Yes, of course they can.

2) Can Mat Latos hold up for an entire season?

Mat Latos was on his way to what appeared to be a Cy Young type season. In the first half of 2010, Latos went 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA, and 0.96 WHIP. He had also already pitched 106 innings by the All-Star Break. This number already eclipsing the prediction that Fangraphs.com had of 87 IP for Latos. And it had been clear in Spring Training that Latos was going to limited in pitches in 2010, less he become the next Mark Prior. All of which would have been fine had the Padres been cellar dwelling as predicted by the All-Star Game. Which of course they weren't.

Thus, Latos was pushed to be the ace of the staff before he was ready or the team wanted him to be. And his second half numbers reflected that of a pitcher who's previous season high for IP was 122. Latos went 4-6 in the second half of the season, posting a 3.58 ERA with a 1.244 WHIP while increasing his SO/9 from 8.4 to 10.4 (read: more pitches), including losses in his final 5 starts (and yes, his run support was less than stellar during that stretch).

This was a natural and, dare I say with 20/20 vision, a predictable fall-off considering his increase in innings from his previous high of 122. He finished 2010 184 IP.

But now he's done it. Now, he's arm has had the experience of pitching 180+ innings in high stress games. And history is on his side (Mark Prior notwithstanding). Lincecum went from 146 IP and a 4.00 ERA to 227 IP the next year and a 2.62 ERA. Felix Hernandez went from 190 IP in 2007 to 238 IP in 2009, posting a 2.49 ERA.

Small sample size? Sure. But, provided Mat Latos stays healthy, there appears to be no ceiling to his potential and all the reason to believe that the 1st half of 2010 can be carried over to an entire season in 2011.

3) What will the starting rotation look like by September?

2010 Projected Starting Rotation, in March
1) Chris Young
2) Jon Garland
3) Kevin Correia
4) Clayton Richard
5) Mat Latos

2010 Starting Rotation, in September
1) Mat Latos
2) Jon Garland
3) Tim Stauffer
4) Corey Luebke
5) Chris Young (newly off the DL)

The point. It hardly matters what the starting rotation looks like in March. It won't be the same by the end of the year. Injuries, slumps, trades. Any variety of things can mix up the rotation. Perhaps that is no more true then for a team like the Padres, who have so many young pitchers. The Padres added Aaron Harang (a pitcher with a down year but upside who I think will have a rebound year in Petco) and Dustin Moseley. This, coupled with Tim Stauffer, who is finally blossoming into the 1st round draft pick the Padres believed him to be and Clayton Richard (how good does that Peavy trade look now?), and the Padres rotation looks solid.

But what if Richard regresses ala Correia? This is where I believe the strength of the Padres to be. Pitching depth. Last year we got a taste of Luebke and I think we all liked what we saw. And of course, a bit down the road, Casey Kelly is waiting in the wings.

With any luck, the Padres starting rotation by September will include Luebke at minimum. Beyond that, who knows?

4) How many pounds of Garlic Fries will I consume in 2011?

The over/under is at 20.5. Take the over. Way over.

5) Can someone give Chase Headley a day off?

Chase Headley played in 160 games in 2010. There are 162 games in a season. The positive. Tremendous health and and consistently from a key infield position. But this overwork can clearly led to a fall off in production.

Or did it?

He had a tough September, though that could be said for the entire team. But in July and August he hit .300 and .286. This while being bounced around the lineup with no clear natural position in the lineup. Chase Headley will never be the power threat from the 3rd base position that is stereotypical. But if you want power, well friend, you follow the wrong team in the wrong park.

So can he get a day off? The addition of Cantu would seem to indicate that, yes, Buddy Black will not let Headley play 160 games again, keeping him fresh for what we hope is another September run.


Spring is right around the corner. And spring brings about it optimism. Until I see tangible evidence to the contrary, I choose to be optimistic about the 2011 Padres.

Don’t Touch the Stove! …it’s hot.

*Today marks a red letter day in the history of Left Coast Bias. Today, I am happy to present the first guest article in the blogs history. David Israel is a fellow Padres fan (I suppose that was obvious), a member of the legal community and, as this article shows, a pretty damn good writer. So, without further adieu, David, take it away!

By David Israel
With the Padres moves likely winding down (pick a 1B, any 1B), and with time on my hands, it’s time to take a look at the hot stove for one of the most active teams on the market. The Padres were surprising players; while there were no big acquisitions, the Padres have made some major moves, and despite the loss of Adrian, should put up a solid mid-level performance on a low-level payroll. So, let’s take a look.

The Adrian deal: Look, it was bound to happen. Enough has been written about it, and if 2-3 of those guys pan out in the next 2-4 years, the Padres will be better off for having made this deal. Casey Kelly looks legit, and the other parts will eventually help. Eric Patterson as the PTBNL stings a little (was hoping for an unrealistic Ellsbury move), but overall, this deal looks downright decent.

GM Hoyer also shored up the rotation, which suffered the losses of Kevin Correia and Chris Young. Aaron Harang has always been one of those guys I can’t help but think has been consistently undervalued; I like him in Petco Park for the price we’re paying. The rotation could probably use one more free agent brought in for the back end, to form up with Latos, Richard, Harang, Stauffer, and perhaps Leblanc. But hopefully not Leblanc; I just don’t trust him yet full time.

The middle of the field has done a full change; Maybin is Gwynn with slightly less defense, but more than enough to cover some ground in Petco’s CF. The bat upgrade he brings over AGJ is well worth it; for Maybin and Bartlett, we gave up 4 pieces we were never going to use, plus two minor leaguers with uncertain futures. That’s a plus; Bartlett will bring some stability to a position where the Pads have been lacking for a long time. This blog has already posted stat comparisons; take a look below.

My one suggestion for the off season when I planned on writing this a week ago was that the Padres should sign Orlando Hudson for a few years. While they paid him more than I would have projected, O-dog will bring a veteran leadership to this team that would have been left to only Ryan Ludwick. Good signing for a player who will fill a need, and provide savvy leadership. He is also familiar with the NL West, from his time with the Dodgers. A little expensive, but a good signing.

What’s left for the off season? A first baseman, clearly- look for Troy Glaus to be slotted in to that role. He made $1.75M last year, and could likely be had for $2-3 M this year. The defense won’t be Adrian (who may not be as good as numbers indicated- the lateral movement wasn’t great last year), but it will be adequate. I’d rather see a cheaper option than Derek Lee, but it would be fun if Lee and C. Young ended up on the team together, if only so they could relive their brawl from 2007. We could also use some of the Gunslinger’s old leftover magic in pulling a bullpen piece or two off the scrap heap.

So can the Padres compete with this team? With the Rockies and Giants in the division, probably not. So, what would I like to see happen? Before the Magglio Ordonez signing in Detroit, Ryan Ludwick seemed like he could be a fit there. Both Ludwick and Bell could (and should) be moved before the deadline, to save on payroll and bring in some help for the future. I love Bell as a player, and as a part of the San Diego community. But he deserves a shot to compete, and should get it.

Overall, a nice hot stove season for the Padres, and it should be a nice year of baseball in 2011. And, it’s only 2 months until the three best words, ever: pitchers and catchers.

Now is the Winter (Meetings) of Our Discontent

When the Winter Meetings began in Florida, Jed Hoyer made arguably the biggest move of this MLB offseason when he traded perennial All-Star Adrian Gonzalez to the Boston Red Sox. Now, I have made my thoughts known on the Adrian trade but I will add this one last thing.

Seeing Adrian in a Red Sox jersey was not easy to see. Look, I know its for the best blah blah blah, still not easy. But I am happy for Adrian as he will finally get the national attention he deserves. That has already begun as Adrian Gonzalez found himself on Jim Rome's radio show this morning. So, to that I say, good for Adrian.

Now, onto the Padres holes. Let's not kid ourselves, there are multiple. This morning, Padres manager Bud Black called XX1090 and answered this question "If you had to write the lineup today, how would you do it?" The answer:

1B: Kyle Blanks
2B: Logan Forsythe
SS: Evereth Cabrera
3B: Chase Headley
LF: Ryan Ludwick
CF: Cameron Maybin
RF: Will Venable
C: Nick Hundley

Now, I don't know about you, but that middle infield is nothing I would feel comfortable starting the 2011 season with. And now steps are being taken to fix that.

Via Corey Brock, MLB.com's Padres beat writer (@FollowthePadres on Twitter) reported tonight that a deal appears to be in place for the Padres to obtain Tampa Bay Rays SS Jason Bartlett for Adam Russell and Cesar Ramos. Before we go on its worth noting that this deal has not been officially announced yet but, assuming this happens I have to say that I love this move.

Jason Bartlett, in a down year in 2010, hit .254 with 4 HR. In 2009, Bartlett .320 with 14 HR. His career line shows the potential for consistent offense from the SS position which, prior to the Tejada trade, was something sorely missing in 2010.

More importantly, however, is that it shows that when Jed Hoyer says that the Padres are not giving up on 2011 despite the Adrian trade, he means it. Is Jason Bartlett an Adrian Gonzalez? Of course not. But making moves of this nature and trading for a SS who has been an All-Star does show, at least to this fan, that Jed Hoyer has not attention of simply packing it in for 2011.

So, the hole at SS appears to have been filled. Rumors have been swirling that the Padres are looking at available 1B including Derrek Lee, Lyle Overbay and Adam Laroche. And Bud Black did not discredit the idea of bringing back Eckstein to play 2B.

So yes, Adrian is gone, but Jed Hoyer and the Padres staff are being very active at the Winter Meetings. And despite the small payroll they have to work with, effort is being made. And frankly, all I want to see is some effort to field a competitive team in 2011. Jason Bartlett is step one.

The Inevitability Conundrum - Trading Adrian Gonzalez

After the 2005 season, Kevin Towers pulled off what could arguably be called the best front office move of his Padres GM tenure. He traded Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka to the Texas Rangers for Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young, and Termel Sledge. Apologies to Mr. Sledge, but let's focus on Gonzalez and Young for a second.

At the time of the trade I remember not being crazy about it. I like Otsuka as a set-up man to Hoffman and Eaton at the time seemed a more than serviceable starter. And who were Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez? No one I had ever heard of.

Fast forward to winter of 2010.

The trade of Adrian Gonzalez to the Boston Red Sox has sent shock waves through two fan bases, for two very different reasons.

For Boston fans, they get a perennial All-Star who hit 30 plus HR playing in one of the most cavernous parks in baseball, coupled with Gold Glove caliber defense at first.

For Padres fans, we are left only with melancholy.

Any fan who has been paying even the slightest of attention knew this was inevitable. When Ryan Howard signed his 5 year, $125 million extension the writing was on the wall. But in reality, the writing had appeared before that. The Moore divorce that has wrecked havoc on the Padres, decimated the Padres payroll nearly in half, down to a paltry $40 million projected for 2011.

There was no way to justify paying one player, no matter how great, nearly 50% of a teams entire payroll. And it was unfair to ask Adrian Gonzalez to not get market value. This is the economic landscape of modern day baseball.

Thus began the Adrian Gonzalez trade rumors, rumors that would dominate the 2009 offseason. But as Opening Day 2010 approached, there he was, firmly in place at First Base.

Then a funny thing happened on the way to Fenway Park. The Padres started winning. And winning.

With the Padres in contention, the idea of trading Adrian Gonzalez, despite his value likely never higher, was unfathomable. The Padres front office pushed their chips in and said "Let's go for it."

Did that decision lesson the overall haul for Adrian Gonzalez this week? Probably. The need to trade Adrian was well known and everyday he was a Padres was a day his value decreased and the Padres need to trade increased.

Do I regret them going for it? Not for one second. As earlier post have pointed out, the 2010 baseball season, despite its outcome, was one of the most enjoyable seasons I can remember as a fan. The team won 90 games, had a real shot at making the playoffs and a World Series. Those shots don't come around all the time. And when they do, you take that shot, consequences be damned.

So here we are. Adrian Gonzalez is no longer a San Diego Padres. The starting First Basemen is unknown and the ability for the Padres to compete in 2011 appears, on paper, to be limited.

Adrian Gonzalez leaves San Diego second on the All-Time franchise HR list at 161, behind Nate Colbert at 163 despite 61 fewer plate appearances. He leaves 4th on the franchise all-time RBI list. And despite his relatively short tenure in San Diego, he leaves as perhaps the 3rd most beloved Padres of All-Time, behind Tony Gwynn and Trevor Hoffman (ok, this one is less a stat and more of an opinion).

Today, despite all the logic and reason behind the trade, is not a good day to be a Padres fan. The organization loss their franchise face for most of the last decade.

I know little of the prospects coming from Boston behind what has already been reported. I know they are all highly touted, all with tremendous upside and that none are MLB ready. And I know that the economics of the situation meant this trade had to happen for the long term health of the franchise.

Going to the dentist is good for my long term health too. Doesn't mean I have to enjoy the dentist when I'm there.

Hindsight is 2010

I haven't posted since Opening Day 2009 and I have no idea how much I will continue to post. I stopped for a number of reasons. Studying for the bar, looking for work, moving when I found that work and, frankly, because there are Padres blogs that are better at this then I am. I have no access to any players or media, no partner to post when I forget. Really, just one dude who loves the Padres. And how interesting could that possibly be?

But I felt compelled today to write something. The 2010 season has come to an end. Baseball, perhaps more than any other sport, leaves a melancholy feel when it ends. I love football, but thats a once to twice a week event. Baseball is like school or a job. It is everyday, its a grind and, when a team is chasing down a playoff spot, it can be exhausting to keep up with. So today is weird. No Padres lineup being posted via Twitter today. No debate over who is in CF and who should start vs a LHP. Instead, we are left only with memories and thoughts of "what if?"

Which brings us to the retrospective of 2010. This has become an interesting debate today. How do we all feel about this season? It's a question 29 out of 30 teams have to deal with to varying degrees, but perhaps no team has a more complicated answer then the Padres.

On the one hand are those that seem to revel in negativity. This camp will point to the 10 game losing streak, and the 14-23 record over final 37 games. This is the camp that will constantly remind you how they had a 6.5 game lead on August 25th and that 2nd place in the NL West with no playoffs should not be considered an acceptable season. And this camp isn't wrong. No Padres fan can be honest with themselves without dealing with how the final month of the season went for the Padres. It was brutal and hard to watch at times. At times it felt like watching a runaway train with no way to stop it. And all fans could do is watch, and wonder "what happened?" The what ifs are plenty, and there is no way around that.

But then there is another camp. A camp that will tell you how the Padres were picked to finish last in the NL West. They will remind all of us of how Adrian Gonzalez was to be traded by the deadline and that September would be merely a showcase of Triple and Double A players as all eyes pointed toward 2011. And how this team of $38 million in payroll and one household named player stormed the National League and shocked every expert and most (ok, all) fans. And how, no matter what, they played 162 meaningful games and far exceeded expectations.

I align myself more with this second camp. Of course you can't ignore the disappointment of the last month. Its a tough pill to swallow to be up 6.5 on 8/25 and not be in the playoffs today. Its hard to think that if, instead of a 10-gm losing streak they had only gone 3-7 they would have won the NL West. But, I choose to not erase 6 months of enjoyable baseball simply because the end result wasn't what I wanted or believed it would be. The simple fact is that the 2010 season was the most enjoyable season I've had as a fan of this team since 1998. Sure, they had made the playoffs since then. But watching a team go 82-80 to win the division is hardly enjoyable. Or watching the manager blow out the knee of your starting outfielder because he is a loose cannon in the same game your starting CF gets hurt, not so fun. But this year was fun. And to me, its as simple as that.

What I take away from this season was watching a team that stole bases with reckless abandon, Latos coming into his own and looking like an ace, the bullpen turning 9 inning games into 6 inning games, the Yoda backpack, Miguel Tejada and the "Spotlight", and yes, stumbling on the stretch run. It was all part of the same journey and while I wish the end result was different, as they say, the journey is sometimes more important then the destination.

So, who's heading to Peoria in March 2011?

P.S. As for the future of this blog, we shall see....

Post-St. Patty's Day Post

So, for a few weeks now I have been touting the World Baseball Classic. I've argued it's legitimacy, it's place in the U.S. sports conscious, trying to get people excited for it as I was. Then, St. Patrick's Day hit and I missed, by far, the best game for the U.S. in the WBC since it's inception.

Fail.

The U.S. team, rebounding from an embarrassing 11-1 thumping came back to beat the Netherlands to survive. Then yesterday, in a second elimination game, the U.S. team, down 5-3 in the bottom of the 9th score 3 runs. 1 on a base on balls and than a 2 run single by David Wright to propel the U.S. team, left for dead less than a week ago, onto the semi-finals in Los Angeles. And I missed it.

Fail Again.

However, what this does mean is that the U.S. team plays on, granting all those who missed last nights heroics more opportunity to watch this team.

In other WBC news, Mexico was eliminated on Monday night. The bright side to that is of course, the Gonzalez brothers (Adrian and Edgar) will head back to Padres camp with Scott Hairston.

Now, onto some Padres news.

In the last post I mentioned how Kyle Banks was tearing up the Cactus League at first base while Adrian was away at the WBC. Currently, Banks is hitting a crisp .341 with 3 HR's and 9 RBI. But there is that small, Gold-Glove winning, All-Star in front of him at first who is not likely to be going anywhere soon. So, the question has been posed: What about moving Banks to the Outfield? Corey Brock, who blogs for the Padres at http://coreybrock.mlblogs.com/ asked Kevin Towers this.

"Towers he doesn't want to mess with Blanks confidence right now by asking him to start taking fly balls in Arizona. If the Padres do opt to see how Blanks looks in the outfield then it would likely be once the Triple-A season begins in Portland."

However, Towers has said, to both Corey Brock and Tom Krasovic that Banks will start taking fly balls before games in AAA Portland. For those of you scoring at home, this would be 2 corner infielders the Padres have attempted to convert into outfielders, assuming taking fly balls before Beaver games is the first step in that conversion.

So there's that. Needless to say, Banks and his bat need to find their way into the lineup at some point this season.

Krasovic also reports in that same piece that Chris Young has been scratched from today's start in Peoria due to "elbow tendinitis." Young says its not a big deal, it happens every March when he begins introducing sliders and curve balls to his pitching repertoire.

Finally, one of the great sporting events in America begins tomorrow (technically it began on Tuesday). March Madness is upon us and nothing beats the opening weekend, with games on CBS from the time you wake up until bed. Fantastic. For those curious, here are some of my bracket picks:
- Final Four Teams: Louisville, Memphis, Pitt, Syracuse with Memphis winning the whole thing

- Arizona as a 12 seed heading to the Sweet Sixteen with wins over Utah and Wake Forest

- Purdue toppling UConn in the Sweet Sixteen

- VCU making a serious run to the Sweet Sixteen

- West Virgina taking down Michigan St. to advance to the Regional Finals

- Gonzaga takes out UNC

Enjoy the madness! Enjoy the WBC! Enjoy the green beer hangover!

Thoughts While Waiting for Selection Sunday

Mercy Rule.

11-1.

One game away from elimination in the second round. Again.

The U.S. team finds themselves in a position sadly familiar today. In the World Baseball Classic, the U.S. is one loss away from being eliminated again in the second round after being flat-out embarrassed by the Puerto Rico team last night. Jake Peavy gave up 6 runs in the first two innings.

Said Peavy: ""I take full responsibility for the boys' loss." "Nothing was working. Just a tough night."

Ultimately, the U.S. team was mercy ruled in the 7th inning after falling behind by 10 runs. Roy Oswalt will take the mound today against the Netherlands to help avoid a fate that this U.S. team promised they would not suffer. Elimination in the second round of the WBC.

In Other News

Josh Geer had another nice start against Milwaukee on Thursday. Geer, who is primed to be the 4th/5th starter for San Diego this year, threw three hitless innings against the Brewers in Spring Training.

With Adrian Gonzalez playing in the World Baseball Classic, the Padres have had a chance to get an extended look at first basemen of the future Kyle Banks. Crushing a three-run shot, Banks has provided fans with an optimistic look toward the future.

Matt Antonelli is taking a page out of the Tony Gwynn School of Hitting nad has turned to videotape to help his swing. After slumping last year in AAA Portland to an average of .215, Antonelli began watching tape to fix a swing that, to that point, had never betrayed him.

Chase Headley continues to impress in spring. Perhaps knowing he will be the Opening Day starter will help in Headley reaching the potential of the Padres best prospect.

That's all for now. Enjoy the WBC and Selection Sunday. And follow me on Twitter at LeftCoastBias!

Who Needs a Break?

That got dangerously close to disaster territory for MLB. When the All-Star Game in Milwaukee ended in a 7-7 tie after 12 innings, the outcry across MLB was palpable. I for one didn't see the big hoopla considering the game is an exhibition game anyway but fans demanded there be a winner. That lead to the reactionary move of putting home field advantage at stake in the All Star Game, an idea that defies any sort of logic. As MLB is often criticized for, they continually trip over themselves when it comes to the All-Star Game. I for one have always been a fan of the idea of going to a "Home Run-Off" similar to a shootout in hockey to decide tie All-Star Games. That apparently is to gimmicky, but placing home field advantage in the most important game of the year, not gimmicky at all.

But the plan worked. No more ties, well-played games and on we went. Until last night when Terry Francona looked down at his bullpen around the 13th inning and realized that the only pitcher he had left was Scott Kazmir. Who threw 104 pitches on Sunday. And plays for a division rival. Clint Hurdle joked afterward (or maybe half joked) that David Wright was his emergency pitcher. One thing was for sure, this game had to come to a conclusion. This point was relayed to both dugouts during the later stages of the game last night. So what's more gimmicky? David Wright pitching to win home field advantage in the All-Star Game or a Home Run-Off?

Needless to say, as a fan, the game was thrilling. Some highlights:

- NL throws 2 guys out at home in the 10th with the bases loaded and no one out. This lead to the acrobatic play of Miguel Tejada, charging a slow grounder and throwing a bullet to first while falling down.

- Nate McCloth made a TREMENDOUS throw from Center Field to throw out the potential winning run. Russell Martin's scoop of the in between hop and blocking of the plate was equally impressive.

- Adrian Gonzalez played like 7 innings!!!! Nice game for AGon as he went 1-3 with an RBI (an RBI that, at the time, appeared to be the game winner). Lost in all this is the solid first base he played. In the 10th inning with the bases loaded, Russell Martin attempted to double up the hitter and appeared to slip as he threw. The throw was in the dirt and scooped nicely by AGon. Without that play the AL wins right there.

- If you stayed up to see it, George Sherrill formally introduced himself last night. 2 and a 1/3 innings pitched. Impressive display.

- All Michael Young does is win All-Star Games.

All in all, disaster was averted and the All-Star Game was what it is suppose to be. A showcase of the greatest sport in the world, played by the greatest players in the world.

Regular season starts up tomorrow and, sadly and amazingly, the Padres at 22 games under .500 are only 10 games out. Hopefully they give up that dream and let their young players play.

Padres at the Break (Brink)

So, I've been a bit of a slacker in updating post here. What can I say? Work...and play, has gotten in the way. But we are back for an All-Star post to ease us into the break. A couple thoughts from over the weekend:

- The Padres lost last night 12-3. The nice thing about 58 losses by the All Star Break is that all the losses blend together, making it hard to remember any one. I barely remember yesterday's loss already.

- The UT did an interesting "By the Numbers" piece today here. What jumps out at me is the 0-48 record in games when trailing after 8. So at no point this year has San Diego come back on another team's closer.

- The Padres are 11-16 in 1-run games which, more then anything, means that they have played 27 1 run games. They have played 26 "blowout" games (games decided by 5 or more runs).

- The 1998 National League Championship Team was honored over the weekend. I was 3 when the Padres won the '84 pennant so the '98 team was really my first experience with the Padres in the World Series. I lived in Tucson at the time but I remember how excited I was to see my team on national t.v. with all the playoff fanfare. Finally, when I had had enough, I drove out to San Diego for a game during the NLCS and it remains one of the most exciting sporting events I have been to. The 1998 season was some of the most fun I have ever had as a baseball fan and I'm glad they were honored this weekend. So thanks to Greg Vaughn, Ken Caminiti, Sterling Hitchcock, Kevin Brown, Carlos Hernandez, Tony Gwynn, Steve Finley and the rest of the squad. You gave me memories I wouldn't trade for anything.

- Only 1 Padre in the All-Star Game, Adrian Gonzalez (who should be in the Home Run Derby). As is typical, the major markets lead the way in voting and players sent to the game. Not that San Diego warranted more than 1 this year though.

- Finally, Jayson Stark wrote a scathing article about ARod not taking part in the Home Run Derby in Yankee Stadium. A good read (as most of Stark's stuff is).

Aimless Tuesday Ramblings

I was out of town this past weekend so that would be the reason for the limited updates. Hope every one's 4th was fun. Here are some random thoughts on the Padres I had:

- Adrian Gonzalez was named to the All-Star team to the surprise of no one. He will be travelling alone however (also to the surprise of no one) as he is the lone Padres representative. Adrian is also a bit open about his desire to take part in the Home Run Derby. With 22 homeruns (4th highest in the NL) and an open NL spot, it would seem to make perfect sense. It would seem...

- Edgar will not be making the trip to New York because the All-Star Break is "wife time."

- To meet Adrian's 8-4 goal before the All-Star break, the Padres have to win 5 straight after last night's 3-1 loss. That loss moved the Padres to 3-4 in their last 7.

- Greg Maddux will NEVER WIN AGAIN!!!!

- Greg Maddux can still pitch though and last night was a great example.

- Interesting move by the Brewers this weekend landing C.C. Sabathia. A new high water mark for mid-market/small market teams.

- I've been a fan since he got here but I am over Khalil Greene. Look, we had some fun, some laughs, but its over. Time to move on.

- In things I know little to nothing about, the Padres scored big in the Amateur signing day last week, landing 5 of ESPN.com's 10 best prospects. Check Paul Depodesta's blog for far better information on that at It Might Be Dangerous.

- And speaking of Depodesta, he put a call out to fans for suggestions on what to do with this team. Essentially, play GM. My answer, sell. Forget this season, get rid of Wolf, Giles, Greene, load up on prospects and look toward next year. It doesn't take a Herculean effort to win this division, but speed might help.

- $1 days at Petco! $1 hot dogs, $1 drinks, $1 off beer. Only 8 home games left in July.

- Luke Carlin has a cannon for a right arm. If only he could hit.

- Chase Headley may strike out a lot but he already has 5 home runs since joining the Padres a few weeks ago.

- The Padres can't score more than 3 runs at home! Last night was no different.

- I'm now openly rooting for a team below .500 to win the NL West

An AL Bloodbath

- Since leaving for Cleveland the Padres are 2-7 including a sweep by the Yankees and losing 2 of 3 to the Indians and Tigers. Needless to say, interleague cannot end fast enough. Luckily, misery loves company, as the National League, once again, has a losing record against the American League (save the Cubs sweeping the White Sox and the Reds taking 2 of 3 from NY). Minnesota comes in next and one can only hope the Padres can find a way to win a series.

- The Padres are 13 % more likely to strike out with runners in scoring position then any team in the NL. That stat attributes much of the offensive woes the Padres face. It's not getting guys on that seems to be the problem, it's the bats clamming up once they do. Last Thursday in NY, this was made abundantly apparent where, in the 2nd inning the Padres put guys at 2nd and 3rd with no one out. Strike out, throw out at home, strike out ended the inning. Bases loaded with 1 out in the 3rd, similar result. As the guy sitting next to me at Yankee Stadium said "the Padres should be up 7-0 right now." To which all I could say was "Yup, but you get use to it. I've seen this movie before."

- I understand the lineup choices are a bit limited with the nagging injuries to Hairston and Kouzmanoff, but PMac in the 5 hole? Really? That's the best we can muster!

- Adrian Gonzalez hit his 21st homerun yesterday, opposite field shot (as it turns out, 1/3rd of his homeruns this year have been opposite field shots!). Then he was intentionally walked his next two times up. The book is out, and until Headley asserts himself as a legit threat (which he will) and/or Kouz comes back, Adrian might as well leave the bat in the dugout. Interestingly, Adrian has driven in 22.5% of the Padres runs this year, by far the highest on any team.

- Chase Headley had a tremondous start in NY at the plate (a less impressive defensive start so far, although if the Padres could figure out where to play him and, you know, let him play there, this wouldn't be such an issue.). But at the plate, Headley went 2-4, 1-4 with a HR, 1-4 with a double in the three game series in NY. He followed that up with a 2-4 plus a homerun day at home against Detroit, a 1-4 game on Saturday before his 5-game hitting streak came to an end on Sunday, going 0-4 with 3K's (note: his 4th out was a warning track shot). I would say Headley is as-advertised as to his offense.

- An interesting article today in the San Diego U-T here. Basically, the Moores are getting divorced and California is a community-property state which basically means the divorce is suppose to go 50/50 in regards to property. So who takes over the Padres?

- I talked this up a bit last week but be sure to head to Ducksnorts.com/blog and find Parts 1-3 of the interview Geoff Young did with Sandy Alderson. Interesting stuff.

I'm saving the full Yankee Stadium report until I get the pictures from the trip. However, I will say this (and likely repeat during that post). Here are the stadiums I've been too now (active stadiums):

1) Petco Park

2) Dodger Stadium

3) Chase Field (AZ)

4) U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago WS)

5) Wrigley Field

6) Angels Stadium

7) Yankee Stadium

8) Miller Park (Milwaukee)


As you would guess, Petco is first but one cannot compare a brand new stadium to one built in the 1920's.

It's Official...Jim Edmonds Hates San Diego

Seriously? Two scolding doubles last night? Jim Edmonds, the poster child for every player that plays past his sell date hit two doubles for the Chicago Cubs last night. Edmonds you'll remember was so anemic at the plate that even on a team full of anemic hitters he stood out, to the point that he was finally released. Now this...and so it goes this season.

The Cubs are in town this week with the best record in baseball. Not many could have hoped for a win last night between Carlos Zambrano and newly acquired starter Baek. Still, ever the optimist, I thought the fight shown by the Padres (and I guess really I mean Adrian, more on this in a second) was inspiring. Look, things can be spun however you want. The Padres went 5-5 on their last home-stand. Improvement? Yes. Satsified? No, not when those 10 games come against the Cardinals, Reds and Nationals. Still, the point was the same. Fans can see a clear difference in the style of play on the field, even in a loss.

Adrian Gonzalez is having some kind of year that is being lost in obscurity here in 4th place San Diego. AGon hit his 17th home run last night and is now the NL leader in RBI's, an amazing feat considering he has almost no protection in the lineup and does not exactly hit in a Murderer's Row of a lineup. It seems more than likely now that AGon will be the Padres representative at the All-Star Game.

What's amazing this year is as bad as things have seemed (and really, part of me just thinks this team is snake bit), the Padres are only 9.5 games back. A large deficit for sure but not insurmountable considering the quality of the NL West and that Arizona has finally come back down to earth. Of course, this goal would be buoyed by the promotion of Chase Headley...but that's for another time.

Tonight, the Cubs send Jason Marquis against Wil Ledezma (is it me or does it feel like the Padres have about 10 "starters" right now while Peavy, Young, and Estes are DL'd?)

BIG NEWS!!!!!
Left Coast Bias will be making the trip East in three weeks to see for the first (and only) time Yankee Stadium as the Padres take on the Yankees in mid-June. Full report on the activities later but wanted to give you a heads up.

Where Have You Gone Bullpen?

The other day someone asked me whether it was "time to panic." My initial, gut reaction was no, absolutely not, its way to early. Keep in mind I said this with this in mind: Peavy was pitching tonight, against the Astros, followed by the Giants coming to San Diego.

Well...Peavy pitched admirably. Pedestrian by his own, astronomical standards. 6 IP, 4 ER, 2 SO. More indicative of his performance was where the Padres were when Peavy left. Down 4-3.

Black went to Thatcher who quickly gave up 3 runs, missing his spots badly. In a park like Minute Maid Park against a lineup such as the Astros, missing your spots is a recipe for disaster. This ran the score to 7-3.

Unlike what has happened often this season however, the Padres fought back. PMac went deep, and AGon did his best Charger impersonation at home. A 4 run 8th inning had tied the game and Heath Bell was coming in. Finally, the Padres had a game set-up as they would want it. I was going to argue a few days ago that the Padres unusually high bullpen ERA was more a case of mop-up guys getting knocked around (Rusch, Ledezma, etc.).

Heath Bell gave up 4 runs, putting the game out of reach, and the fans into panic mode.

So to answer the question that began this post, "is it time to panic?" Yes.

But hang on...it's April after all. How many times have fans seen things take place in April that never pan out (Shelley Duncan of Detroit, I'm looking at you). So let's review the Padres last three years and see how important April really is:

2005 (note: the Padres won the division with an 82-80 record):
April Record: 11-13; Most Games Under .500: 4 games under, on April 27. What drove that team to the playoffs was a 22-6 May and a winning record in 1-run games 29-20.

2006 (won division with an 88-74 record):
April Record: 9-15; Most Games Under .500: 7, on April 29. Perhaps most interesting was the team ERA of April: 4.57.

2007 (finished third with an 89-74 record):
April Record: 13-13; never under .500.

NOTE: statistics provided by http://www.baseball-reference.com/

I guess my point is this. In the past three years, the Padres have never left April with a winning record. Currently they are sitting at 9-12. They have a run differential of -28 and a bullpen ERA of 5.54.

So, time to panic, or just another April in San Diego? Time will tell, but my money is on history, and history dictates that the Padres play extremely well in May. For now, the panic button will be put away...for now.

Coming Up

Another bizarre two game series coming up, this time against the Giants. Maddux goes for win 350 tonight. Lucky for us, we get Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum. Sometimes its not stats, its luck.