The Theo Epstein Domino Effect

When a team loses 90-plus games in a season, it has to look for some silver linings. Some glimmer of hope that let's the fan base know that, while this season was difficult and trying, brighter days are on the horizon.

In San Diego, that silver lining was Jed Hoyer. In Jed, the franchise had taken a clear direction that appeared, from the outside anyway, to be the right direction. Organizationally, the Padres won two Minor League championships. Now, maybe you don't put a ton of stock in that. But as one of Jed Hoyer's main goals when coming to San DIego was to strengthening the farm system, two Minor League championships would seem to be the first signs of progress.

Organizationally, the team has improved. Per Keith Law, the Adrian Gonzalez trade alone moved the Padres farm system up half a dozen spots in his organizational rankings, a list that doesn't account for the Padres 2011 draft in which the Padres were graded very highly (realizing of course that the "grades" for any draft are both subjective and premature). This is all credit to Jed Hoyer, among others, but as Jed is the GM Jed gets the credit (and blame).

That silver lining no longer exists. Per ESPN Chicago, the Theo Epstein deal to the Cubs is all but done which will make Theo Epstein the President of the Cubs. More pertinent, however, is who Epstein will be bringing with him to Chicago to work as his GM.

"Two other sources confirmed ESPNChicago.com's report that San Diego Padres general manager Jed Hoyer will be named Cubs GM a few days after Epstein's news conference. But Padres owner Jeff Moorad emailed ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes late Wednesday night that the Cubs had not asked for official permission to interview Hoyer."

While nothing is 100% at this point, that seems to be only a matter of semantics and not reality. The lack of a denial of these rumors from the San Diego Padres, Jeff Moorad and Jed Hoyer tells you everything you need to know. If reports are to be believed, Josh Byrnes (formerly the Arizona Diamondbacks GM) will ascend to the GM spot in San Diego, a result that Jeff Moorad likely wanted from the day he got here.

Losing Jed Hoyer is a blow, and I'm not sure how any Padres fan can think otherwise. He was here just long enough to trade away the best player this franchise has had in a decade and now will not be here to carry that plan through to fruition, be it good or bad. Theo Epstein is getting the band back together for one last tour. A World Series title in Chicago will supplant Epstein's place in Major League history.

But what of us? It has become clear that the Padres is merely a stepping stone for a bigger job in a bigger city with a bigger payroll. What San Diego needs is someone with a desire to come here and stay here. I don't believe for a second that Jed Hoyer didn't put his every effort into his tenure of the Padres. But the issues in San Diego are not fixable in a year or two and Jed's plans were designed for long-term success not short-term gains. But ultimately, this was a job for Jed. A job that would lead to a better job in his mind. Could he, or anyone, have foreseen the collapse of the Red Sox and the subsequent housecleaning that their front office went through? No. But his decision to leave, and Jeff Moorad's decision to let him leave (keep in mind, it is entirely within Moorad's control to stop this, but he has chosen not to because he gets the GM he likely wanted from the start in Byrnes) clearly is an end result desired by all parties.

Jeff Moorad is now letting the architect of the Padres organization over the last two years walk out the door. He brings in Josh Byrnes who, admittedly, I know very little of. His tenure in Arizona was not marred by any moves that would particularly blow you away, though one could argue the NL West championship team of this year was a direct by-product of Brynes. And this is not meant to slight Josh Byrnes at all. I'm simply upset that the team is left virtually rudder-less for the moment and that Byrnes lives with the aftermath of the Adrian Gonzalez trade and the 2011 draft.

But hey, at least the Padres will get compensation, right?

"There will be no compensation for Hoyer, a source said. Moorad and Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts have become friends since the Ricketts family bought the Cubs in October 2009."

Crap.

**UPDATE**

Well, that escalated quickly. I mean that really got out of hand.

The deal that will make Theo Epstein the President of the Cubs and Jed Hoyer his GM apparently will also include Padres Assistant General Manager Jason McLeod.

What. The. F.

The man credited with drafting Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury, and the person who, if my Twitter feed is to be believed, made the jagged pill of losing Hoyer go down smoother (hey, at least we'll have McLeod!) will become the...oh who cares what he'll become in Chicago. The point is he won't be here.

So now, Moorad is letting McLeod and Hoyer walk out of the door for little more than a handshake. This, my friends, does not organizational stability make.

This story is made even more ridiculous by reports that Hoyer asked Moorad for a 5-year extension to stay in San Diego. Now, I'm not sure a GM, or any front office member is deserving of a 5-year extension after a 90 loss season, but it does indicate to me that Hoyer had every intention of staying, provided he was confident he would be here long enough to see his vision through.

Not that any of that matters now. I read somewhere today that it feels like Hoyer was merely brought in here to be a consultant for the Adrian Gonzalez trade. Tongue in cheek, but it now feels closer to the truth than it was intended.

Did Hoyer really get everything the Padres could for Adrian Gonzalez? Would Josh Byrnes had looked beyond Boston for a trading partner? Would any of these questions even be in the back of your mind if Hoyer was staying?

I don't know the answers to those questions. But I know this. This appears to have all begun with fried chicken and beer in the clubhouse in Boston. That chain reaction has lead us here.

Who needs a drink?

***UPDATE II***

Per the NCTimes.com the Padres will receive compensation for Hoyer:

Assistant GM Jason McLeod is expected to join Hoyer in Chicago and a source said the Padres will receive compensation from the Cubs in return for freeing both men from their contracts.

So we got that going for us, which is nice.

The Case for Petco Park

The San Diego Padres scored 13 runs today on 23 hits.

Let me say that again.

The 2011, shutout 8 times, San Diego Padres scored 13 runs on 23 hits.

It should come as no surprise that they were on the road when this happened, playing in Miller Park, a far more favorable offensive setting.

The 23 hits were the most for the Padres since 08/12/03 vs Atlanta. It was the first 20 hit game for the Padres since getting 22 hits vs Milwaukee on 08/11/09.

It was a good day.

And now they travel to Colorado, as hitter friendly a park as there is. Players appear, using nothing more than my own observations, appear to be hitting the ball better, harder, and with just a bit more confidence (most notably Ludwick and Hawpe who have been much maligned to start this season).



This kind of offensive output on the road lead many today to the obvious questions/complaints about Petco Park. There is a loud, though I argue still minority opinion that Petco Park should be modified in some way to lend itself to more offense. This argument was given a local media voice in the form of Darren Smith of XX1090 when he posted on Facebook "Padres scored 22 runs in three games at Miller...21 in their six-game home stand. Nope, PETCO doesn't matter." This was followed by a lengthy discussion in which the common refrain from those in favor of modification point to the lack of "excitement" in games played at Petco Park.

This argument really got started in force on Saturday night, where, after being shut out by the Diamondbacks (the Padres 8th shut out of the season thus far), Chase Headley was quoted in the San Diego Union Tribune “I don’t care who you bring into this ballpark, it’s not going to be an offensive club, it’s not. So we as an organization understand what type of team we have to have to win and it’s always going to be based around pitching and defense. So I don’t necessarily think it’s a personnel problem.”

I've personally had this argument more than once and, since the issue is complicated and getting all my points across in 140 characters was proving to be impossible, allow this to be the case for keeping Petco Park as it is.

1) The Petco Park Advantage
Petco Park opened in 2004 marking this the 8th season in the park. In 7 complete seasons in Petco, the Padres have 2 NL Western Division titles. In their entire franchise history prior to moving to Petco they had 3 ('84, '96, '98). They accomplished this despite never having a team salary higher than $73 million (2008).

If you judge success not by division titles but purely by wins, then keep in mind that the Padres 90 win 2010 was the 4th highest win total in franchise history, despite a paltry $45 million payroll. (It's worth noting that the worst year for the Padres came in 2008 where they won 63 games while spending $73 million).

So was it coincidence that the most successful stretch in Padres history coincided with the opening of Petco Park? I seriously doubt that. The Padres have committed to a strategy as a franchise to build teams around good pitching and defense and a focus on small ball and speed. To that end, the Padres are consistently near the top of MLB in team ERA and, more recently, SB's. Petco has turned average pitchers into league leaders and saw only the 4th Cy Young in franchise history in 2006 with Jake Peavy. Pitching and defense. That's Padres and Petco baseball. And it has, for the most part, proved to be successful.

2) The Money Game
Let's live in the real world. The Padres will never be one of the biggest spenders in baseball. Jed Hoyer has said publicly that, eventually, the Padres eventually will operate around $70-75 million a year. For reference, this year a payroll of $75 million would put the Padres 20th in MLB in team payroll.

Furthermore, of the top 10 player salaries in MLB this year, only 2 of those players (CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay) are pitchers. The point? Offense cost money. Money the Padres don't have and won't have anytime soon (thanks John Moores!).

So, maintaing Petco Park as a pitchers park allows the Padres to continue to utilize the pitching and defense strategy while being able to work within the financial reality in which they operate. Ryan Howard cost money. Aaron Harang? Considerably less.

3) Atmospheric Conditions
The jewel of downtown San Diego is Petco Park. It was the catalyst for one of the most successful neighborhood renovation projects in the United States. It's aesthetically pleasing being located in the Gaslamp Quarter and near the San Diego Bay. Beautiful and quintessentially San Diego. The location could not have been better.

Except that it is probably the primary culprit for the lack of offense in Petco Park.

It's not a surprise nor a secret that Petco plays less as a pitchers park during the day time. What's missing during the day? Marine layer. Thick sea air that moves in each night and essentially acts as quicksand to fly balls. As a piece of purely anecdotal example, last year, Adrian Gonzalez did not hit one homerun at home aft 8:00pm. That's not coincidence.

So unless you are willing to move Petco Park to La Mesa or move the fences in 100 ft, it may not much matter.

4) Winning Breeds Excitement
Finally, there is the argument that Padres baseball = boring baseball. This is obviously a more subjective point. But, dare I say, that offense doesn't make a team exciting. Winning does. The Padres play, more often than not, close games. A byproduct of low scoring games no doubt. Which would seem to translate to games that are often up in the air until the 9th inning. Which would seem to translate to excitement. But, beyond the brand of baseball the Padres play, I would argue that winning, no matter the score, is exciting. Last year the Padres were near dead last in team BA yet won 90 games and was one of the more enjoyable seasons in recent memory (from a personal level).

Considering the Padres are 7-14 at home, no argument that this year's Padres, to this point (today's game being the obvious exception) have been boring. But I argue that they are boring because they are losing. Call me crazy, but I'll take 2-1 wins over 13-12 losses everyday.

I beg to differ with Chase Headley. This year, it is the personnel. Doesn't mean this team can't turn it around. As a team they are hitting far below average and it stands to reason that a course correction is coming (if not already here based on the series in Milwaukee). But when every everyday player other than one (Bartlett) is on pace for 100k's, you can put that team in any park from Coors to Williamsburg and it won't much matter.

So I say, keep the fences where they are. Adapt to the park, don't make the park adapt to the team.