Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent

This point can't be made more clearly than I'm about to make it right now.

This is not a defense of the Padres actions (or lack thereof) of this winter.
Nor is this a complaint.

And it's not a complaint because it's December 8th. For reference sake, the Mat Latos trade, which caught many by surprise, happened on December 17th.

The sense amongst Padres fans (or at least the small section of fans in which I have seen, read or interacted with) is that this is just the same old Padres. Same penny-pinchers despite the fact that they now have $1.5 billion in television revenue to work with. The evidence they point to is multi-layered:

1) The Padres did not offer Kuroda $17 million as was reported by the NY Post. This, in and of itself, was a good thing and not many would argue that point. What was more concerning to some is the impression that the Padres COULDN'T offer that amount.

2) The Padres failed to land Dan Haren. Haren had been rumored as a player that may fit well with the Padres. But, as has been reported multiple places, including via Corey Brock, the Padres are steering clear of health risk. Between back issues and lingering hip issues, Dan Haren was far from a low risk option from a health perspective. At $13 million, that price was likely too high for San Diego considering those risk.

3) Reports came out that the Padres were looking at a payroll of $70 million for 2013. While this is an increase of nearly $15 million from last year, it fars short of what many expected with a new ownership group and new influx of television revenue. It also leaves little room for maneuvering after the extensions to Street and Quentin (among others) are accounted for.

4) Reports that Byrnes was caught off guard by the market value of pitchers like Haren, Blanton and, presumably now, McCarthy. I can't say I blame him too much. $13 million for Haren was higher than expected. Then again, the Nationals gave Jayson Werth a $126 million contract for 7 years.

As it stands now, the Padres primary target this off-season has been starting pitching. That need has been made clear by all involved and plugged in with the team. And considering the amount of injuries the pitching staff suffered in 2012 (11 pitchers hit the DL last season including relief pitching. This includes season-ending injuries to 3/5ths of the rotation followed by season ending injuries to 2 of the replacements for those 3/5ths) you can see why the Padres would want to stockpile pitching.

But it is worth bearing in mind that in 2013 the Padres expected to see the return of Cory Luebke, potentially as early as June 1. Per Bill James via Fangraphs, Luebke is predicted to make 24 starts Is that optimistic? Probably. One would assume the Padres will take a version of the Nationals plan in dealing with Luebke coming off Tommy John.

But he will return. As will Cashner. (We'll get to that injury on a later post. But...well, F). Not to mention Casey Kelly, Max Fried, Robbie Erlin, and Keyvius Sampson, the future of Padres pitching looks promising.

I'm not going to sit here and tell you that this winter thus far has been thrilling as a Padres fan. PED suspensions, hunting accidents and Jason Marquis does not fire up the fan base. Do I think the team is where it needs to be right now to compete? No. But I think they are closer than some who would scream for the Padres to make a deal would believe.

Let's wait until the off-season is over before we make broad declarations on how well the Padres did in the off-season and whether Byrnes is incompetent.

Make a deal that makes sense. Both for 2013 and beyond. But don't spend money just because you have money.

Competing in 2013

The Padres spent Sunday spending $27 million. I'm still in pajamas and it's 2pm. So you could say our days have been a bit different. But I digress.

The Padres signed local boy Carlos Quentin to a 3 year, $27 million contract, ending all conversations about whether (and for what) he would be traded. He won't be. He is here to stay.

But this isn't a conversation about the merits of that deal. For the most part I like it, though the no-trade clause is always dangerous. But time will tell whether this was a smart move.

No, today I'm more interested in what this means about the organizations expectations for the immediate future. A signing like this would seem to indicate that the rebuilding process is in its final leg. That the team is planning to be competitive, perhaps as soon as 2013. So, let's look at that.

For one, 2012 has provided little in the way of a barometer regarding the Padres pitching staff. The current staff is a hodgepodge of players who happened to be available and answered their phone. For example, currently I'm watching Ross Ohlendorf pitch, a player who started 2012 in Pawtucket. Kip Wells, Jason Marquis. To paraphrase a sage mentor "these are not the starting pitchers you are looking for."

By now the Padres injury struggles are well documented. Needless to say, the post-Latos trade projected starting 5 of Volquez, Luebke, Stauffer, Richard and Moseley/Bass spent precious little time on the field.

Then there's the middle infield. I hate to do this to you and I'll make it fast but, we started this year with the Hudson/Barlett tandem. A distant memory now, it took awhile to rectify this situation because, you guessed it, injury. Forsythe and Cabrera were injured, Amarista was an Angel. The times were different.

But not anymore. Hudson is gone. Bartlett is going to be gone. Hundley's struggles (and now injury) are in Tucson. The lion share of the Latos trade is on the field in San Diego. The team is drastically different then it was to start the year. Hell, it's different from where this team was on Memorial Day.

Yes the team is playing better. Yes the competition has been weaker. But keep in mind, this is a team that got swept from the Cubs so beating even weak teams is progress.

Can they compete in 2013? Here's what their lineup by mid-June should look like. This obviously takes the optimistic view that they will not suffer as many injuries next year as this.

C Yasmani Grandal
1B Yonder Alonso
2B Forsythe/Amarista
SS Cabrera/Amarista
3B Headley or Gyorko
LF Quentin
CF Maybin
RF Venable/Denofia

SP Luebke
SP Stauffer
SP Cashner
SP Richard
SP Bass or whoever 2013's Volquez/Harang type person is

Closer: No idea

Now, let's look at the NL West. Currently the Giants lead the West with a 53-42 record despite being 11th in Runs Scored in the NL. (The Dodgers are 13th in that category BTW). It doesn't take a ton of firepower to win the West. It does take pitching.

So, can this team compete in 2013? I imagine that depends on how you define "competing?" I define it as playing important baseball games in September. Can the team above stay in the race in the West in 2013? I think they've shown in the past 3 weeks that they can. It's a young team, but, thanks to injuries in 2012, many of the young pieces are getting MLB experience ahead of schedule. That can only help moving forward.

It's for that reason that I like the Quentin signing. The team believes they are close. The product on the field is better. And the NL West is not top-heavy. You don't extend Quentin when you are rebuilding.

It appears that rebuilding process is now near its end.

Roster Moves Begin to Shape Padres 25-man Roster

Busy news day for the Padres. A quick rundown of today's moves as we inch closer to Opening Day:


1) The biggest news of the day was the trade for Alberto Gonzalez (so look forward to a lot of double takes when you see in the box score "A. Gonzalez"). Padres traded Minor League pitcher Erik Davis, who was 14-3 with a 3.52 in 27 starts with Lake Elsinore, San Antonio, and Portland. This shores up one of the most glaring holes heading toward Opening Day in finding a defensive specialist to act as backup INF/Utility.

2) As feared/expected, Mat Latos will start the season on the DL.

3) Cory Luebke has been told he has made the team. Considering the Padres have 3 off days in the first 8 days and Latos on the DL, this may be short lived. Worth noting, he was used in one inning of relief work today so he could be used as reliever vs starter...for now.

4) Cedric Hunter, OF, has made the Opening Day roster. Hunter, 23, was the Padres top ranked prospect in 2006. Get to know your new backup OF here.

5) Aaron Harang was named the Padres home opener starter.

So, as you can see, a busy day for the Padres. More decisions sure to follow tomorrow.

Finally, some housekeeping. If you are on Facebook, don't forget to "Like" the Official Left Coast Bias page. Link is to the left.