Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent

This point can't be made more clearly than I'm about to make it right now.

This is not a defense of the Padres actions (or lack thereof) of this winter.
Nor is this a complaint.

And it's not a complaint because it's December 8th. For reference sake, the Mat Latos trade, which caught many by surprise, happened on December 17th.

The sense amongst Padres fans (or at least the small section of fans in which I have seen, read or interacted with) is that this is just the same old Padres. Same penny-pinchers despite the fact that they now have $1.5 billion in television revenue to work with. The evidence they point to is multi-layered:

1) The Padres did not offer Kuroda $17 million as was reported by the NY Post. This, in and of itself, was a good thing and not many would argue that point. What was more concerning to some is the impression that the Padres COULDN'T offer that amount.

2) The Padres failed to land Dan Haren. Haren had been rumored as a player that may fit well with the Padres. But, as has been reported multiple places, including via Corey Brock, the Padres are steering clear of health risk. Between back issues and lingering hip issues, Dan Haren was far from a low risk option from a health perspective. At $13 million, that price was likely too high for San Diego considering those risk.

3) Reports came out that the Padres were looking at a payroll of $70 million for 2013. While this is an increase of nearly $15 million from last year, it fars short of what many expected with a new ownership group and new influx of television revenue. It also leaves little room for maneuvering after the extensions to Street and Quentin (among others) are accounted for.

4) Reports that Byrnes was caught off guard by the market value of pitchers like Haren, Blanton and, presumably now, McCarthy. I can't say I blame him too much. $13 million for Haren was higher than expected. Then again, the Nationals gave Jayson Werth a $126 million contract for 7 years.

As it stands now, the Padres primary target this off-season has been starting pitching. That need has been made clear by all involved and plugged in with the team. And considering the amount of injuries the pitching staff suffered in 2012 (11 pitchers hit the DL last season including relief pitching. This includes season-ending injuries to 3/5ths of the rotation followed by season ending injuries to 2 of the replacements for those 3/5ths) you can see why the Padres would want to stockpile pitching.

But it is worth bearing in mind that in 2013 the Padres expected to see the return of Cory Luebke, potentially as early as June 1. Per Bill James via Fangraphs, Luebke is predicted to make 24 starts Is that optimistic? Probably. One would assume the Padres will take a version of the Nationals plan in dealing with Luebke coming off Tommy John.

But he will return. As will Cashner. (We'll get to that injury on a later post. But...well, F). Not to mention Casey Kelly, Max Fried, Robbie Erlin, and Keyvius Sampson, the future of Padres pitching looks promising.

I'm not going to sit here and tell you that this winter thus far has been thrilling as a Padres fan. PED suspensions, hunting accidents and Jason Marquis does not fire up the fan base. Do I think the team is where it needs to be right now to compete? No. But I think they are closer than some who would scream for the Padres to make a deal would believe.

Let's wait until the off-season is over before we make broad declarations on how well the Padres did in the off-season and whether Byrnes is incompetent.

Make a deal that makes sense. Both for 2013 and beyond. But don't spend money just because you have money.

All Quiet on the Trading Front

"So, you're telling me there's a chance."

That seems to be the message being sent by Padres GM Josh Byrnes today. As the trade deadline passed, nary a peep was heard from the front offices of Petco Park today.

Instead, the Padres spent most of their time leading up to the trade deadline extending pieces they believe will help them win in the more immediate future. Quentin is here to stay for awhile. So is Huston. Which begs the question "how badly do we need a closer on a sub .500 team?"

The answer with those two extensions seems to be that the front office of the Padres expect to compete. Soon.

But despite that, most expected the Padres to jettison their most coveted piece. Chase Headley. The market was weak for third basemen. With an extra wild card, there were even more teams willing to be buyers at the deadline. Chase's contract is more than reasonable.

As first pitch in Cincinnati was thrown at 4:00pm Pacific, hours after the deadline had passed, there was Chase Headley starting at 3rd.

It had been reported in the days leading up to the deadline that Byrnes was looking for a Latos-esqu deal. Talks appeared to progress to something beyond simple talk with at least Baltimore and Oakland. But teams weren't willing to meet the Padres high demand. The market never changed. The Padres took very few calls reportedly on Tuesday. And there stood Chase Headley, the longest tenured current Padre, still a Padres on Tuesday night.

This is the right call. The message is clear from Brynes. They expect to compete soon. If that is the case, you don't send a key cog of that wheel away for prospects. That's rebuilding. Byrnes appears to believe the rebuilding is over.

For the many shortcomings of the 2012 San Diego Padres (and there are many, though some through no fault of their own i.e. injuries), Chase Headley is not one of them. Yes, one can cherry pick statistics and point out his faults. The fact that one has to cherry pick stats to such a degree to find fault in a player, however, says everything you need to know about a player.

I don't know how one scouts and analyzes this season for the Padres. The team today is so different from where this season started that one almost has to throw out the first two months. We still don't know what the starting rotation would have done had the ghost of Tommy John not haunted Darren Balsley's staff.

I do know that, even fully healthy, this team as is is not winning a newly fully loaded NL West. Tweaks will need to be made. But Chase Headley is part of the solution, not the problem.

Of course, no extension of Chase followed his no-trade. At least not yet. Which will leave the door open this winter for us to all go through this again.

In Which It Is Safe To Shop Again

My closet is littered with jerseys I no longer wear. Giveaways, gifts, or impulse buys that now simply mark the history of the Padres through the years (well, through the late 90's to today). Among them are:

Mid-90's Gwynn (a jersey I still wear, of course)
Trevor Hoffman (Retired from wear when he became a Brewer. Now free to be worn at will.)
Khalil Greene (free jersey giveaway day)
Mike Cameron (another giveaway)
Jake Peavy (during his Cy Young season)
Adrian Gonzalez (which will never see the light of day again)

Buying a jersey of your favorite team is tricky business. For one, they don't come cheaply (a 2012 Authentic Home jersey runs $258.99).

Secondly, if you are to invest the money it takes to have a jersey, there's really nothing worst than waking up to find out the player you've chosen to hitch your wagon to has been traded to Cincinnati.

And finally, more own personal rule of thumb regarding jerseys. If you are not on the team, I'm not wearing your jersey. Nothing makes me cringe more than walking around Petco and seeing Giles jersey's. If you are not currently on the team, I'm out. Obviously, the exception to this is a retired player (i.e. Gwynn and Hoffman). But while Hoffman was a Brewer, that jersey collects dust. Don't be the guy walking around in an Adrian Gonzalez jersey while he's hitting doubles off the Green Monster.



It is with all of this in mind that today's news regarding Cameron Maybin. Originally broken by Dan Hayes at the North County Times, the Padres today agreed to a 5 year/$25 million extension with an option for a 6 year. With this deal (similar to the deal Josh Brynes pulled off with Chris Young of Arizona), the Padres have secured one of the most important positions in baseball with a player taylor made for Petco Park both from a defensive and offensive standpoint.

Moreover, Cam is just fun. He's fun to watch. He seems like a fun guy in the clubhouse. He is a player that, as a fan, I'm proud to say is a Padres. Since coming here, Maybin has becoming instantly popular. With the departures of Gonzalez and Bell, I would argue he is likely the most popular Padre of the current roster. For good reason. (BTW, my personal second favorite: Chase Headley. Though that can be a controversial topic amongst fans and probably best left to another post...or shouting matches over Sculpin)

And most importantly, it is now safe to purchase a jersey. Dig into that penny bank, and as Donna and Tom Haverford would say...TREAT YO SELF!

The Promise of a Brighter Future

The Mat Latos trade nearly got me into quite a bit of trouble yesterday.

There I was, trying to enjoy a nice day out with my wife, finishing up some Christmas shopping and grabbing lunch. Pleasant and completely removed from any Padres rumors or hot stove talk. As we are browsing through some shop in Downtown Pasadena, I check my email from my phone. Not for any reason really, just habit.

Hey, an email from the Padres. What 50% sale are they pushing now...wait, what?

PADRES ACQUIRE EDINSON VOLQUEZ AND THREE TOP PROSPECTS FROM REDS

Wow. That's a substantial haul for the Padres. Must have given up something major. But who? I had to read on. So I kept "browsing," my nose tucked very firmly in my phone. Then I got to this: "...in exchange for right-handed pitcher Mat Latos."

Double wow.

I had to know more. More importantly, as is so much a part of our information culture these days, I had to know what the reaction on Twitter was. Knowing full well that the Latos' are prominent on social media sites and the amount of passion Padres fans have for Latos (#TEAMLATOS being a common hashtag on days he starts). But I was shopping and supposed to be enjoying a nice day out with my wife. I can't just ignore her to read what my Twitter feed says about this trade.

But I had to.

I'm pretty luck in my relationship. My wife is a baseball fan. She gets it. Maybe not to my more obsessive level, but she gets it. So I very casually bring it up. "Oh wow, the Padres traded Latos." Her reaction? "Wow, really? Are you going to write a post about it?"

She gets it.

So I briefly scan Twitter. I don't know if I've ever seen a more substantial schism between baseball experts and scribes (who thought the Padres fleeced Cincinnati) and Padres fans (who saw this as yet another popular Padres player being shipped off for unknown commodities).

I am in no way an expert on baseball prospects, certainly not ones from a team not named San Diego. But I know 4 players for 1 player is a lot. I know that nearly every expert who does know about teams farm system seem to love this move. The Padres farm system, already considered a Top 5 system heading into 2012, is better. The Padres likely have their starting first baseman now in Alonso, they have a bit of a surplus now in catching prospects and a potential replacement for Heath Bell. This all ignores Volquez, who has quality in him somewhere if he can just find it again. Now he moves to resurrection island for pitchers in Petco Park. All in all, this seems like a win.

It's not fun trading away star players. And frankly, the Padres right now are in short supply of players that a casual fan will recognize come Opening Day 2012. But Mat Latos wasn't untouchable, clearly, and never should have been. He has had stretches of brilliance, but stretches of mediocrity. He may or may not have maturity issues (a topic I will completely ignore, except to say it was mentioned prevalently yesterday when this trade was reported, from multiple sources). But what was clear was that Mat Latos was not in Josh Byrnes long term plans. In what has been the clearest example yet, the players Brynes covets are not the same that Hoyer did.

I'm not distraught over this trade. I wasn't when I first heard about it, I'm far less now. The Padres got a huge haul. They gave up a volatile but talented pitcher. But they received in return a lot of pieces that, I hope, will lead to long term success down the road. Or maybe it's because I've always been indifferent to Mat Latos. Always rooted for him, always liked him. But I wasn't enamored with him the way others were, or the way I was with Peavy. It seems folly in today's modern baseball world to fall in love with starting pitchers. To injury prone, to in demand, to on the move.

In either way, I slept on this trade and I like it more than I did yesterday, and I liked it yesterday. Best of luck to Mat in Cincinnati (outside of 6 games). Now, with 3 possible first base options, we wait for the second shoe to drop.

Is Rizzo next?