Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent

This point can't be made more clearly than I'm about to make it right now.

This is not a defense of the Padres actions (or lack thereof) of this winter.
Nor is this a complaint.

And it's not a complaint because it's December 8th. For reference sake, the Mat Latos trade, which caught many by surprise, happened on December 17th.

The sense amongst Padres fans (or at least the small section of fans in which I have seen, read or interacted with) is that this is just the same old Padres. Same penny-pinchers despite the fact that they now have $1.5 billion in television revenue to work with. The evidence they point to is multi-layered:

1) The Padres did not offer Kuroda $17 million as was reported by the NY Post. This, in and of itself, was a good thing and not many would argue that point. What was more concerning to some is the impression that the Padres COULDN'T offer that amount.

2) The Padres failed to land Dan Haren. Haren had been rumored as a player that may fit well with the Padres. But, as has been reported multiple places, including via Corey Brock, the Padres are steering clear of health risk. Between back issues and lingering hip issues, Dan Haren was far from a low risk option from a health perspective. At $13 million, that price was likely too high for San Diego considering those risk.

3) Reports came out that the Padres were looking at a payroll of $70 million for 2013. While this is an increase of nearly $15 million from last year, it fars short of what many expected with a new ownership group and new influx of television revenue. It also leaves little room for maneuvering after the extensions to Street and Quentin (among others) are accounted for.

4) Reports that Byrnes was caught off guard by the market value of pitchers like Haren, Blanton and, presumably now, McCarthy. I can't say I blame him too much. $13 million for Haren was higher than expected. Then again, the Nationals gave Jayson Werth a $126 million contract for 7 years.

As it stands now, the Padres primary target this off-season has been starting pitching. That need has been made clear by all involved and plugged in with the team. And considering the amount of injuries the pitching staff suffered in 2012 (11 pitchers hit the DL last season including relief pitching. This includes season-ending injuries to 3/5ths of the rotation followed by season ending injuries to 2 of the replacements for those 3/5ths) you can see why the Padres would want to stockpile pitching.

But it is worth bearing in mind that in 2013 the Padres expected to see the return of Cory Luebke, potentially as early as June 1. Per Bill James via Fangraphs, Luebke is predicted to make 24 starts Is that optimistic? Probably. One would assume the Padres will take a version of the Nationals plan in dealing with Luebke coming off Tommy John.

But he will return. As will Cashner. (We'll get to that injury on a later post. But...well, F). Not to mention Casey Kelly, Max Fried, Robbie Erlin, and Keyvius Sampson, the future of Padres pitching looks promising.

I'm not going to sit here and tell you that this winter thus far has been thrilling as a Padres fan. PED suspensions, hunting accidents and Jason Marquis does not fire up the fan base. Do I think the team is where it needs to be right now to compete? No. But I think they are closer than some who would scream for the Padres to make a deal would believe.

Let's wait until the off-season is over before we make broad declarations on how well the Padres did in the off-season and whether Byrnes is incompetent.

Make a deal that makes sense. Both for 2013 and beyond. But don't spend money just because you have money.

Winter Meetings Start in Nashville

It is that time of year again where the movers and shakers of baseball front offices convene in one area for a high stakes baseball convention. This year the focus in Nashville is directly on Johan Santana, the Minnesota Twins ace that has the Yankees and Red Sox continually upping their ante. In the past week, "untouchables" Phil Hughes of New York and Jacoby Ellsbury of Boston have both been mentioned as no longer "untouchable," each time in response to the other teams offer. The end game is this, Johan Santana will get traded and will then sign a multi-year deal making him the highest paid pitcher in baseball.

How is this important regarding the Friars? Between last years ridiculous Barry Zito contract and the impending Johan Santana contract, not to mention the major deal Carlos Zambrano made with the Cubs during the season, the market for pitchers is moving out of the Padres price range. That's why the best news of this week were reports that Jake Peavy and the Padres were nearing an extension keeping Peavy in San Diego until 2012. Barry Axelrod meet with Kevin Towers on Sunday night and it appears that they are both close to a deal, one that would pay Peavy $17.5 million a year. For the caliber of pitcher Peavy is, this is a bargain if the current pitching market continues to increase like it currently is doing. I don't think I need to tell you that having a top of the line starter is key to a teams success. An ace pitcher can be built around and at worst gives you a great chance to win every 5th day.

In other news, the Padres did sign lefthander Randy Wolf. Wolf is recovering from shoulder surgery and is expected to fill in the vacant spot left by David Wells.

Mike Cameron and Michael Barret were offered arbitration. It is believed that Cameron will turn it down, making him a free agent and giving San Diego 2 compensatory picks by virtue of Cameron's Class 2 free agent classification. As the search for a centerfielder continues it may be that Cameron will come right back here. Cameron will miss the first 25 games of next season due to his amphetamine test.

That's all for now. If anything comes out of the winter meetings, I will post it here.