Well, that was exciting. If you were to listen or watch coverage of yesterday's Spring Training game between the Padres vs Rangers you would be excused to assume the second coming of Cy Young was present.
Darvish, for what it's worth, did not disappoint, throwing two scoreless innings.
But I'm more interested, not in the outs Darvish recorded, but the one he didn't. In the Top of the 2nd, Will Venable took a 2-2 fastball and doubled off the CF wall (should be noted that had it not been for the giant blue wall in CF, Venable would have taken him deep).
Venable's double, an estimated 410 foot shot on a 93 MPH fastball, was "wind aided" and due to "altitude" according to Yu Darvish afterwards. He also said that Venable didn't square the ball up.
Venable's reactions were fantastic. On Darren Smith's show on Wednesday, Venable said sarcastically "Of course I didn't hit is squarely...because he's Yu Darvish. And I'm Will Venable."
Per Dan Hayes, Venable's reaction was "Maybe his perception of reality isn't as right on. I don't know. No comment."
Brilliant stuff from Will.
But let's look at Yu Darvish's claims. First, wind. Per ESPN's box score, there was an 11 MPH wind coming from the West. According to some guy on the internet who claims to be a physics expert (and my English degree is not going to challenge him on that), an average headwind of 10 MPH would convert a 400-ft HR into a 370-ft out. However, at Peoria, a westward moving wind would create more of a cross-breeze, not a tail or head wind. Thus, while it may have some effect on trajectory, if anything, the ball would have flown further without the wind, a point Will Venable made on Darren Smith's show: "I think the wind saved it from being a homerun." Well played sir.
Now, how about the elevation claim. Weather Underground list their elevation at 1,145 ft. According to our mystery physics person, 1,000 feet of elevation adds 6 feet of flight to a baseball. As a brief comparison, an article in the Arizona Central prior to the All Star Game in Phoenix quoted a University of Arizona professor (Wildcat shout-out!) who had co-authored "Effects of Altitude and Atmospheric Conditions on the Flight of a Baseball" and found that a baseball flys, on average, 5 feet further in Phoenix and their elevation of 1,038 feet.
Fair enough.
So let's assume that Venable's double in the 2nd got an extra 5-6 ft based on elevation. A number that is at least in part limited based on the cross wind that was present that day.
But no, I'm sure he didn't square up on it.
Showing posts with label Spring Training. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spring Training. Show all posts
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Sunday, February 26, 2012
All Those Yesterdays
One week from today the Padres will play their first Spring Training game of 2012. This news is, in itself, exciting and interesting.
But this isn't about that. This is about who they play. And a rivalry renewed. A rivalry steeped in tradition. If tradition means completely manufactured for no apparent reason. The Vedder Cup returns on March 5th. My blood is already boiling.
For the unacquainted, here is a quick primer on the Vedder Cup. And also where the name "Vedder Cup" came from.
2011 was a dark time for Padres fans and the Vedder Cup. In total, the Padres went 1-5 against Seattle. The Padres scored a total of 4 runs in those 6 games. 4 runs. Total.
The one game they won was on July 2, 2011. You may remember this game for the 3 ball walk. In the Top of the 5th, Cameron Maybin was awarded first base on ball 3. Thanks to a scoreboard mistake that showed Maybin had a full count prior to ball 3 being thrown, Maybin was awarded first. He later came around to score the lone run of the game. (Fun fact: Joe Montana threw out the first pitch that day. Ok, not that fun. But still a fact.)
The Padres won only 1 game in the Vedder Cup series. And they only won it because of a scoreboard error. Not a great showing.
My "Wishlist" for 2012? (Oh oh, are the Pearl Jam puns coming on? They are tough to stop once they begin). Do better than that.
Winter is coming. And by winter I mean Spring. And by that I mean...let's get those dirty hippies from the North.
Vedder Cup. 2012. Reclaim the Eddie!
But this isn't about that. This is about who they play. And a rivalry renewed. A rivalry steeped in tradition. If tradition means completely manufactured for no apparent reason. The Vedder Cup returns on March 5th. My blood is already boiling.
For the unacquainted, here is a quick primer on the Vedder Cup. And also where the name "Vedder Cup" came from.
2011 was a dark time for Padres fans and the Vedder Cup. In total, the Padres went 1-5 against Seattle. The Padres scored a total of 4 runs in those 6 games. 4 runs. Total.
The one game they won was on July 2, 2011. You may remember this game for the 3 ball walk. In the Top of the 5th, Cameron Maybin was awarded first base on ball 3. Thanks to a scoreboard mistake that showed Maybin had a full count prior to ball 3 being thrown, Maybin was awarded first. He later came around to score the lone run of the game. (Fun fact: Joe Montana threw out the first pitch that day. Ok, not that fun. But still a fact.)
The Padres won only 1 game in the Vedder Cup series. And they only won it because of a scoreboard error. Not a great showing.
My "Wishlist" for 2012? (Oh oh, are the Pearl Jam puns coming on? They are tough to stop once they begin). Do better than that.
Winter is coming. And by winter I mean Spring. And by that I mean...let's get those dirty hippies from the North.
Vedder Cup. 2012. Reclaim the Eddie!
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Friends in Low Places
Chances are, at some point in your life, you had a dream that was probably not all that realistic. Astronaut, rockstar, movie star. For me, and many others, that dream was playing professional baseball. A dream shared by many I'm sure. And for nearly all of us, a dream that dies off somewhere between the ages of 15-22.
Well, unless you are a country music star.
Today marks the 12 year anniversary of the New York Mets extending a Spring Training invite to Garth Brooks. Which reminds me of one magical spring, when the man not known as Chris Gaines, spent a month in Peoria with the San Diego Padres.
Perhaps you do not recall such a moment in Padre lore. But it happened. Boy, did it happen.
You won't be stunned to hear that Garth Brooks, though great at selling records, was not so great at baseball. Officially Garth Brooks went 1-22 as a Padre. And that's all the stats I can find. Really, I spent a pretty minimal amount of time looking. Do you need stats to know that Garth Brooks wasn't good at baseball?
But there is one, very memorable moment, from the Garth Brooks era for me. And that is this. I've been going to baseball games since I was probably 5 or 6. At first, in San Diego while living in Oceanside at The Murph. Then, when living in Tucson, to Spring Training games at Hi Corbett Field and later, Tucson Electric Park. On average, I'd say I go to close to 30 games per year, between minor and major league games.
And only once have I caught a foul ball at a game. It came on a relatively warm day in March, sitting at Tucson Electric Park watching the Padres play the Rockies. And it was hit by Garth Brooks.
The only foul ball I've ever caught was off the bat of Garth Brooks. This was as bittersweet as it comes for me. I've always wanted to catch a foul ball at a game. But I always imagined it would be hit by an actual baseball player. Not, well, not Garth Brooks.
Garth Brooks being in town was a big deal locally. So much so that every news station had dispatched reporters to Tucson Electric Park for this game, to see the country-music star attempt baseball. Honestly, if you never got to see him play, here's how I would describe it. He made Michael Jordan seem like Mickey Mantle.
Moments after Brooks foul ball was hit into the stands and ended up in my hand, I felt a tap on my shoulder. Turning around, there was a very big camera and a woman with a microphone, both pointed right at me. Yes folks, Garth Brooks making contact with a baseball was now newsworthy.
The reporter asked if I had come here to see Garth Brooks. "No, I came to see the Padres."
The reporter asked if I was excited that I had caught a ball hit by Garth Brooks.
I replied, "Yeah, I guess. I wish it had been hit by Tony Gywnn though."
Well, unless you are a country music star.
Today marks the 12 year anniversary of the New York Mets extending a Spring Training invite to Garth Brooks. Which reminds me of one magical spring, when the man not known as Chris Gaines, spent a month in Peoria with the San Diego Padres.
Perhaps you do not recall such a moment in Padre lore. But it happened. Boy, did it happen.
You won't be stunned to hear that Garth Brooks, though great at selling records, was not so great at baseball. Officially Garth Brooks went 1-22 as a Padre. And that's all the stats I can find. Really, I spent a pretty minimal amount of time looking. Do you need stats to know that Garth Brooks wasn't good at baseball?
But there is one, very memorable moment, from the Garth Brooks era for me. And that is this. I've been going to baseball games since I was probably 5 or 6. At first, in San Diego while living in Oceanside at The Murph. Then, when living in Tucson, to Spring Training games at Hi Corbett Field and later, Tucson Electric Park. On average, I'd say I go to close to 30 games per year, between minor and major league games.
And only once have I caught a foul ball at a game. It came on a relatively warm day in March, sitting at Tucson Electric Park watching the Padres play the Rockies. And it was hit by Garth Brooks.
The only foul ball I've ever caught was off the bat of Garth Brooks. This was as bittersweet as it comes for me. I've always wanted to catch a foul ball at a game. But I always imagined it would be hit by an actual baseball player. Not, well, not Garth Brooks.
Garth Brooks being in town was a big deal locally. So much so that every news station had dispatched reporters to Tucson Electric Park for this game, to see the country-music star attempt baseball. Honestly, if you never got to see him play, here's how I would describe it. He made Michael Jordan seem like Mickey Mantle.
Moments after Brooks foul ball was hit into the stands and ended up in my hand, I felt a tap on my shoulder. Turning around, there was a very big camera and a woman with a microphone, both pointed right at me. Yes folks, Garth Brooks making contact with a baseball was now newsworthy.
The reporter asked if I had come here to see Garth Brooks. "No, I came to see the Padres."
The reporter asked if I was excited that I had caught a ball hit by Garth Brooks.
I replied, "Yeah, I guess. I wish it had been hit by Tony Gywnn though."
Saturday, March 12, 2011
A Successful Season in 2011?
Success is in the eye of the beholder. And arguably, your idea of success is dependent on what view you take of a situation.
For example:
The 2010 Padres won 90 games after winning 75 games the year before = Success
The 2010 Padres had the best record in the National League in late August and missed the playoffs = Not Success
Mat Latos went 14-10 with an ERA of 2.92 in 2010 = Success
Mat Latos went 1-5 with an ERA of 5.66 in September of 2010 = Not Success
Success. Virtually impossible to define and impossible to agree on. Ask 100 Padres fans whether the 2010 season was a successful season, and chances are you would get a near 50/50 split of yes and no. And both sides are probably right. To a point.
So how do we define success for the 2011 San Diego Padres?
For one, the expectations have been risen by the 2010 season. Not a bad thing until you look at the overhaul the Padres went through. Only one infield position will be manned by the same player as last year (Chase Headley-3B). The trade of arguably the best player the Padres have had in the past decade leaves a hole not only in the lineup but on the defensive side of the ball. Major pieces of the bullpen (Muijica and Webb) and starting rotation (Chris Young and Kevin Correia) are gone.
In place of these major changes, the Padres front office has built a team that is perhaps more athletic and more balanced. Balance looks to be the buzzword surrounding this team this year and if you haven't heard it enough yet, just wait. But despite the PR spin of terms like "balance" there is truth to that. In a previous post, I compared the current middle infield vs the middle infield revolving door the Padres used in 2010
I'm all in on Bartlett and Hudson.
I'm also all in on Harang. Maybe I've had a bit to much Kool-Aid but a strikeout pitcher who's Achilles Heel is homeruns moves to Petco Park? I'll take my chances.
Questions abound, of course. Cameron Maybin is a great fit for the cavernous center field of Petco Park. A guy with 5 tool potential but right hits like Pedro Serrano (all straight balls, nothing that moves).
Hawpe is a downgrade defensively at first, there's no debate about that. But how much of a downgrade and how much will that hurt and infield that, overall I think will be better defensively. Mat Latos has struggled in Peoria so far this year and there is some concern that the massive workload increase from 2008-2010 is a debt that is coming due.
So what is success for the 2011 San Diego Padres? I think its fair to say that there is perhaps more excitement internally about where the team is heading, with the additions of Anthony Rizzo and Casey Kelly, then where they are. That doesn't mean 2011 is a lost season as we all bide our time waiting for the first basemen of the future to get here (and while we are on the subject, how about we temper some expectations this time. Less "savior" talk would do a world of good. Yes, Rizzo is having a great Spring. But so did Kyle Blanks last Spring. Chase Headley has fallen victim to the otherworldly expectations when he was touted as the "savior."). It does mean that, perhaps more than any other season in recent memory, getting a handle of the 2011 Padres before the season starts is near impossible.
But they still have great pitching. Outside of first base, they are stronger defensively. The back end of their bullpen remains in tact and they have a lineup sprinkled with players who have huge upside (Maybin, Venable). Plus a division where there is no clear favorite (though I think if you win a World Series, you are the de-facto favorite).
So success for the 2011 Padres to me is simply this: be competitive. Winning 90 games is hard and probably unrealistic. Winning 82-85 games? More than doable. That win total puts the Padres in the thick of the NL West into August and at that point, as we are all too familiar with, anything can happen.
But keep this in mind. Success can be defined in a number of ways and our definition of it will change throughout the season. At the beginning of last year, I thought .500 would be a success. By the All-Star game, a division title was success. Looking back on the season, despite not making the playoffs, 90 wins to me was a success.
For example:
The 2010 Padres won 90 games after winning 75 games the year before = Success
The 2010 Padres had the best record in the National League in late August and missed the playoffs = Not Success
Mat Latos went 14-10 with an ERA of 2.92 in 2010 = Success
Mat Latos went 1-5 with an ERA of 5.66 in September of 2010 = Not Success
Success. Virtually impossible to define and impossible to agree on. Ask 100 Padres fans whether the 2010 season was a successful season, and chances are you would get a near 50/50 split of yes and no. And both sides are probably right. To a point.
So how do we define success for the 2011 San Diego Padres?
For one, the expectations have been risen by the 2010 season. Not a bad thing until you look at the overhaul the Padres went through. Only one infield position will be manned by the same player as last year (Chase Headley-3B). The trade of arguably the best player the Padres have had in the past decade leaves a hole not only in the lineup but on the defensive side of the ball. Major pieces of the bullpen (Muijica and Webb) and starting rotation (Chris Young and Kevin Correia) are gone.
In place of these major changes, the Padres front office has built a team that is perhaps more athletic and more balanced. Balance looks to be the buzzword surrounding this team this year and if you haven't heard it enough yet, just wait. But despite the PR spin of terms like "balance" there is truth to that. In a previous post, I compared the current middle infield vs the middle infield revolving door the Padres used in 2010
I'm all in on Bartlett and Hudson.
I'm also all in on Harang. Maybe I've had a bit to much Kool-Aid but a strikeout pitcher who's Achilles Heel is homeruns moves to Petco Park? I'll take my chances.
Questions abound, of course. Cameron Maybin is a great fit for the cavernous center field of Petco Park. A guy with 5 tool potential but right hits like Pedro Serrano (all straight balls, nothing that moves).
Hawpe is a downgrade defensively at first, there's no debate about that. But how much of a downgrade and how much will that hurt and infield that, overall I think will be better defensively. Mat Latos has struggled in Peoria so far this year and there is some concern that the massive workload increase from 2008-2010 is a debt that is coming due.
So what is success for the 2011 San Diego Padres? I think its fair to say that there is perhaps more excitement internally about where the team is heading, with the additions of Anthony Rizzo and Casey Kelly, then where they are. That doesn't mean 2011 is a lost season as we all bide our time waiting for the first basemen of the future to get here (and while we are on the subject, how about we temper some expectations this time. Less "savior" talk would do a world of good. Yes, Rizzo is having a great Spring. But so did Kyle Blanks last Spring. Chase Headley has fallen victim to the otherworldly expectations when he was touted as the "savior."). It does mean that, perhaps more than any other season in recent memory, getting a handle of the 2011 Padres before the season starts is near impossible.
But they still have great pitching. Outside of first base, they are stronger defensively. The back end of their bullpen remains in tact and they have a lineup sprinkled with players who have huge upside (Maybin, Venable). Plus a division where there is no clear favorite (though I think if you win a World Series, you are the de-facto favorite).
So success for the 2011 Padres to me is simply this: be competitive. Winning 90 games is hard and probably unrealistic. Winning 82-85 games? More than doable. That win total puts the Padres in the thick of the NL West into August and at that point, as we are all too familiar with, anything can happen.
But keep this in mind. Success can be defined in a number of ways and our definition of it will change throughout the season. At the beginning of last year, I thought .500 would be a success. By the All-Star game, a division title was success. Looking back on the season, despite not making the playoffs, 90 wins to me was a success.
Monday, February 7, 2011
5 Thoughts on 2011 Padres
Super Bowl XLV ended the NFL season, crowning the Green Bay Packers champions of the league.
But for those with diamonds in their mind and the smell of cut grass in their nose, yesterday's big game signified but one thing. Baseball is right around the corner.
The San Diego Padres first full workout is scheduled for Feb. 19th. But the universally accepted "start" of Spring Training happens this Sunday, Feb. 13th, when pitchers and catchers will report to Peoria, AZ to share parking and locker rooms with their arch-enemies, the Seattle Mariners! (ok, seriously, is there a more forced "rivalry" then Mariners vs Padres?) No. No there isn't.)
So, with Spring Training less than a week away, today we look at 5 thoughts/questions/ramblings on the 2011 Padres season.
1) Can this team compete for NL West again?
In a word, yes. Of course they can. Let's take a trip back for a second to February 2010. No publication, journalist, blogger, or talking E-Trade baby believed the Padres could do any better than last in the NL West. Even through my rose colored, homer glasses, I only aspired to a .500 season and perhaps a 3rd place finish. Now, we all know how those prognosticators predictions turned out.
Now, here we are in February 2011 and the same talking heads and scribes are picking a similar fate to the 2011 Padres. Dead last or 4th in the NL West. According to sports gambling site Sportsbook.com, the Padres have the same odds of winning the NL West as the Diamondbacks, at 12/1 (Giants favored at less than 2/1). But why? Because of turnover? The loss of Adrian Gonzalez? Miguel Tejada?
Obviously, the loss of Adrian Gonzalez is a hit. No way around that. But this isn't the NBA. One player does not a team make. I am no sabrematician (is that a term?). For a more in-depth analysis of Adrian's value, I would direct you to http://thesacrificebunt.com/ However, AGon's WAR (Wins Above Replacement Player) was 6.3). Let's now add in Eckstein and Tejada, arguably the two largest departures not named Adrian Gonzalez.
Eckstein: 1.4
Tejada: 1.8 (this number represents only his time in San Diego)
So, in three players the Padres loss 8.5 wins. The three key replacements? Orlando Hudson, Jason Barlett, and Cameron Maybin (obviously I realize Hawpe was brought in to play 1st with potentially having Jorge Cantu sharing time at 1st, more on that in a second).
Orlando Hudson: 0.4 (ok, not great but not terrible)
Jason Bartlett: 1.5
Cameron Maybin: 0.3
Hawpe/Cantu were both 0.0
That totals 2.2 wins. So, basically, the Padres are looking at losing, simply on statistics and on paper, 6 wins from 2010. Equalling 84 wins which was good enough for 3rd place in the NL West.
What do all these numbers mean? I'm not sure, I kind of got lost halfway through. But, my point is, while there has been substantial turnover, that turnover resulted in equal to or better players at key positions, 1st base notwithstanding. And I don't know about you, but in the course of 162 games, there are at least 6 games that turn on bizarro, weird, plays that can only be classified as luck. Denorfia's inside the park ground ball anyone?
What the Padres haven't lost is what was key to them winning 90 games in 2010. Pitching (in my mind, the starting rotation is better than a year ago, more on that soon) and defense, also better with the additions of Maybin, Barlett and O-Dog.
So to make a long story short (too late!), can they match their win total from a year ago? Yes, of course they can.
2) Can Mat Latos hold up for an entire season?
Mat Latos was on his way to what appeared to be a Cy Young type season. In the first half of 2010, Latos went 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA, and 0.96 WHIP. He had also already pitched 106 innings by the All-Star Break. This number already eclipsing the prediction that Fangraphs.com had of 87 IP for Latos. And it had been clear in Spring Training that Latos was going to limited in pitches in 2010, less he become the next Mark Prior. All of which would have been fine had the Padres been cellar dwelling as predicted by the All-Star Game. Which of course they weren't.
Thus, Latos was pushed to be the ace of the staff before he was ready or the team wanted him to be. And his second half numbers reflected that of a pitcher who's previous season high for IP was 122. Latos went 4-6 in the second half of the season, posting a 3.58 ERA with a 1.244 WHIP while increasing his SO/9 from 8.4 to 10.4 (read: more pitches), including losses in his final 5 starts (and yes, his run support was less than stellar during that stretch).
This was a natural and, dare I say with 20/20 vision, a predictable fall-off considering his increase in innings from his previous high of 122. He finished 2010 184 IP.
But now he's done it. Now, he's arm has had the experience of pitching 180+ innings in high stress games. And history is on his side (Mark Prior notwithstanding). Lincecum went from 146 IP and a 4.00 ERA to 227 IP the next year and a 2.62 ERA. Felix Hernandez went from 190 IP in 2007 to 238 IP in 2009, posting a 2.49 ERA.
Small sample size? Sure. But, provided Mat Latos stays healthy, there appears to be no ceiling to his potential and all the reason to believe that the 1st half of 2010 can be carried over to an entire season in 2011.
3) What will the starting rotation look like by September?
2010 Projected Starting Rotation, in March
1) Chris Young
2) Jon Garland
3) Kevin Correia
4) Clayton Richard
5) Mat Latos
2010 Starting Rotation, in September
1) Mat Latos
2) Jon Garland
3) Tim Stauffer
4) Corey Luebke
5) Chris Young (newly off the DL)
The point. It hardly matters what the starting rotation looks like in March. It won't be the same by the end of the year. Injuries, slumps, trades. Any variety of things can mix up the rotation. Perhaps that is no more true then for a team like the Padres, who have so many young pitchers. The Padres added Aaron Harang (a pitcher with a down year but upside who I think will have a rebound year in Petco) and Dustin Moseley. This, coupled with Tim Stauffer, who is finally blossoming into the 1st round draft pick the Padres believed him to be and Clayton Richard (how good does that Peavy trade look now?), and the Padres rotation looks solid.
But what if Richard regresses ala Correia? This is where I believe the strength of the Padres to be. Pitching depth. Last year we got a taste of Luebke and I think we all liked what we saw. And of course, a bit down the road, Casey Kelly is waiting in the wings.
With any luck, the Padres starting rotation by September will include Luebke at minimum. Beyond that, who knows?
4) How many pounds of Garlic Fries will I consume in 2011?
The over/under is at 20.5. Take the over. Way over.
5) Can someone give Chase Headley a day off?
Chase Headley played in 160 games in 2010. There are 162 games in a season. The positive. Tremendous health and and consistently from a key infield position. But this overwork can clearly led to a fall off in production.
Or did it?
He had a tough September, though that could be said for the entire team. But in July and August he hit .300 and .286. This while being bounced around the lineup with no clear natural position in the lineup. Chase Headley will never be the power threat from the 3rd base position that is stereotypical. But if you want power, well friend, you follow the wrong team in the wrong park.
So can he get a day off? The addition of Cantu would seem to indicate that, yes, Buddy Black will not let Headley play 160 games again, keeping him fresh for what we hope is another September run.
Spring is right around the corner. And spring brings about it optimism. Until I see tangible evidence to the contrary, I choose to be optimistic about the 2011 Padres.
But for those with diamonds in their mind and the smell of cut grass in their nose, yesterday's big game signified but one thing. Baseball is right around the corner.
The San Diego Padres first full workout is scheduled for Feb. 19th. But the universally accepted "start" of Spring Training happens this Sunday, Feb. 13th, when pitchers and catchers will report to Peoria, AZ to share parking and locker rooms with their arch-enemies, the Seattle Mariners! (ok, seriously, is there a more forced "rivalry" then Mariners vs Padres?) No. No there isn't.)
So, with Spring Training less than a week away, today we look at 5 thoughts/questions/ramblings on the 2011 Padres season.
1) Can this team compete for NL West again?
In a word, yes. Of course they can. Let's take a trip back for a second to February 2010. No publication, journalist, blogger, or talking E-Trade baby believed the Padres could do any better than last in the NL West. Even through my rose colored, homer glasses, I only aspired to a .500 season and perhaps a 3rd place finish. Now, we all know how those prognosticators predictions turned out.
Now, here we are in February 2011 and the same talking heads and scribes are picking a similar fate to the 2011 Padres. Dead last or 4th in the NL West. According to sports gambling site Sportsbook.com, the Padres have the same odds of winning the NL West as the Diamondbacks, at 12/1 (Giants favored at less than 2/1). But why? Because of turnover? The loss of Adrian Gonzalez? Miguel Tejada?
Obviously, the loss of Adrian Gonzalez is a hit. No way around that. But this isn't the NBA. One player does not a team make. I am no sabrematician (is that a term?). For a more in-depth analysis of Adrian's value, I would direct you to http://thesacrificebunt.com/ However, AGon's WAR (Wins Above Replacement Player) was 6.3). Let's now add in Eckstein and Tejada, arguably the two largest departures not named Adrian Gonzalez.
Eckstein: 1.4
Tejada: 1.8 (this number represents only his time in San Diego)
So, in three players the Padres loss 8.5 wins. The three key replacements? Orlando Hudson, Jason Barlett, and Cameron Maybin (obviously I realize Hawpe was brought in to play 1st with potentially having Jorge Cantu sharing time at 1st, more on that in a second).
Orlando Hudson: 0.4 (ok, not great but not terrible)
Jason Bartlett: 1.5
Cameron Maybin: 0.3
Hawpe/Cantu were both 0.0
That totals 2.2 wins. So, basically, the Padres are looking at losing, simply on statistics and on paper, 6 wins from 2010. Equalling 84 wins which was good enough for 3rd place in the NL West.
What do all these numbers mean? I'm not sure, I kind of got lost halfway through. But, my point is, while there has been substantial turnover, that turnover resulted in equal to or better players at key positions, 1st base notwithstanding. And I don't know about you, but in the course of 162 games, there are at least 6 games that turn on bizarro, weird, plays that can only be classified as luck. Denorfia's inside the park ground ball anyone?
What the Padres haven't lost is what was key to them winning 90 games in 2010. Pitching (in my mind, the starting rotation is better than a year ago, more on that soon) and defense, also better with the additions of Maybin, Barlett and O-Dog.
So to make a long story short (too late!), can they match their win total from a year ago? Yes, of course they can.
2) Can Mat Latos hold up for an entire season?
Mat Latos was on his way to what appeared to be a Cy Young type season. In the first half of 2010, Latos went 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA, and 0.96 WHIP. He had also already pitched 106 innings by the All-Star Break. This number already eclipsing the prediction that Fangraphs.com had of 87 IP for Latos. And it had been clear in Spring Training that Latos was going to limited in pitches in 2010, less he become the next Mark Prior. All of which would have been fine had the Padres been cellar dwelling as predicted by the All-Star Game. Which of course they weren't.
Thus, Latos was pushed to be the ace of the staff before he was ready or the team wanted him to be. And his second half numbers reflected that of a pitcher who's previous season high for IP was 122. Latos went 4-6 in the second half of the season, posting a 3.58 ERA with a 1.244 WHIP while increasing his SO/9 from 8.4 to 10.4 (read: more pitches), including losses in his final 5 starts (and yes, his run support was less than stellar during that stretch).
This was a natural and, dare I say with 20/20 vision, a predictable fall-off considering his increase in innings from his previous high of 122. He finished 2010 184 IP.
But now he's done it. Now, he's arm has had the experience of pitching 180+ innings in high stress games. And history is on his side (Mark Prior notwithstanding). Lincecum went from 146 IP and a 4.00 ERA to 227 IP the next year and a 2.62 ERA. Felix Hernandez went from 190 IP in 2007 to 238 IP in 2009, posting a 2.49 ERA.
Small sample size? Sure. But, provided Mat Latos stays healthy, there appears to be no ceiling to his potential and all the reason to believe that the 1st half of 2010 can be carried over to an entire season in 2011.
3) What will the starting rotation look like by September?
2010 Projected Starting Rotation, in March
1) Chris Young
2) Jon Garland
3) Kevin Correia
4) Clayton Richard
5) Mat Latos
2010 Starting Rotation, in September
1) Mat Latos
2) Jon Garland
3) Tim Stauffer
4) Corey Luebke
5) Chris Young (newly off the DL)
The point. It hardly matters what the starting rotation looks like in March. It won't be the same by the end of the year. Injuries, slumps, trades. Any variety of things can mix up the rotation. Perhaps that is no more true then for a team like the Padres, who have so many young pitchers. The Padres added Aaron Harang (a pitcher with a down year but upside who I think will have a rebound year in Petco) and Dustin Moseley. This, coupled with Tim Stauffer, who is finally blossoming into the 1st round draft pick the Padres believed him to be and Clayton Richard (how good does that Peavy trade look now?), and the Padres rotation looks solid.
But what if Richard regresses ala Correia? This is where I believe the strength of the Padres to be. Pitching depth. Last year we got a taste of Luebke and I think we all liked what we saw. And of course, a bit down the road, Casey Kelly is waiting in the wings.
With any luck, the Padres starting rotation by September will include Luebke at minimum. Beyond that, who knows?
4) How many pounds of Garlic Fries will I consume in 2011?
The over/under is at 20.5. Take the over. Way over.
5) Can someone give Chase Headley a day off?
Chase Headley played in 160 games in 2010. There are 162 games in a season. The positive. Tremendous health and and consistently from a key infield position. But this overwork can clearly led to a fall off in production.
Or did it?
He had a tough September, though that could be said for the entire team. But in July and August he hit .300 and .286. This while being bounced around the lineup with no clear natural position in the lineup. Chase Headley will never be the power threat from the 3rd base position that is stereotypical. But if you want power, well friend, you follow the wrong team in the wrong park.
So can he get a day off? The addition of Cantu would seem to indicate that, yes, Buddy Black will not let Headley play 160 games again, keeping him fresh for what we hope is another September run.
Spring is right around the corner. And spring brings about it optimism. Until I see tangible evidence to the contrary, I choose to be optimistic about the 2011 Padres.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Top 10 Things to Look For This Season
The Padres head to China today for the first MLB game to ever be played in China. It's an exciting trip and once I hear how it goes, you will know!
But for now, the season is near, the Spring is in full swing (pun intended!) and it's time to take a cursory view of the Padres as they get ready for the 2008 campaign. So, without further adieu, here are the Top 10 Things to Look For This Season:
10) Chris Young - For half the year, Chris Young was a Cy Young candidate. He had a record of 9-3 with an ERA below 2.00 heading into the All-Star Break. Then he hurt his oblique and lost 5 in a row. The biggest concern for Young is pitch count. Last season he only got through the 7th inning twice, typically leaving in the 6th. His walks were a career high last year which lead to very high pitch counts. Did this lead to his injury and his subsequent swoon? Young is a legit number 2 starter, but this year the pitch count has to come down.
9) Iguchi vs Antonelli - Matt Antonelli is the heir apparent to the Padres second base position and at this point the question isn't if but when. Iguchi was signed to a 1 year deal to play second but if Antonelli continues to impress in the Spring, how long will the Padres wait. It's safe to say that if Antonelli isn't the starter by September of this season, he will be by this time next season.
8) Catchers, Catcher Everywhere - The Padres appear to be going with the catcher-by-committee strategy this year with Josh Bard and Michael Barrett. Three years ago Barrett was one of the most prolific offensive catchers in the NL. That offense has wanned considerably recently. What both catchers lack is an ability to throw out base-stealers. The Padres were dead last in the NL last year in throwing out would-be base stealers.
7) Koooooooz! - Kouzmanoff's rookie season started off pretty much as bad as any player can expect. He hit well below .200 in the first month of the season and but for the lack of a third base option, Kouz would have likely been sent back down to Portland. Then something clicked and Kouz went off, batting well over .340 for the rest of the season and becoming a staple in the middle of the Padres lineup. Now we are on the cusp of his sophomore season, can he keep the momentum from last year going?
6) Peavy, Young, Maddox and then...who? - The bottom of the rotation is up for grabs with some intriguing options all around. Justin Germano appears to be the presumed 4th/5th starter leaving the final spot open between Randy Wolf, Shawn Estes and Mark Prior. Estes has been shaky during the Spring so far, giving up at least 4 runs in just over 3 innings pitched so far. Randy Wolf is returning from elbow surgery and it is unclear whether he will be ready to go by Opening Day. Then there is Mark Prior. The Padres have spent little on him ($1 million plus incentives) and the potential is high. In 2003, Prior was the elite NL starter. Then Bartman happened, then a rash of injuries, some of the freaky variety, destroyed the next two seasons. Now he is in San Diego, rehabbing again, and is set to be ready to play by June. If he can play, Prior may turn out to be the steal of the Winter. If he can't...the Padres will play their third straight season without a definitive 5th starter.
5) Khalil Greene's Contract - The Padres were able to resign Greene this off-season but it wasn't without some controversy. The contract is not for the length desired by San Diego and has left some wondering if Greene wants to be in San Diego long term. His dislike for Petco is well-documented, however, that did not keep him from leading San Diego in RBI's, Doubles, and HR's last year and earning Team MVP honors. Will the contract issues be a distraction this year?
4) Jim Edmonds Knee - Kevin Towers has made a reputation for himself in getting prime players past their prime in an attempt to bring them back to their glory days. Jim Edmonds is the latest adventure, brought here to replace Mike Cameron. It wasn't to long ago Edmonds was an All-Star and, when healthy, he is considered one of the best defensive CF's in the league. When healthy...Edmonds is already plagued by a sore knee and is expected to miss 2-3 weeks. CF back-up plans are few and far between for San Diego, essentially beginning with Scott Hairston. The Padres are working some prospects out at center so far but the question remains, how much will we get out of Edmonds?
3) Hangover from Denver - The Padres went to Milwaukee last year having to win 2 of 4 to win the Wild Card. Tony Gwynn Jr. hit his infamous triple and ultimately the Padres found themselves in a 1-game playoff with the suddenly streaking Rockies. Hairston's HR in the 13th inning appeared to have propelled the Padres to the playoffs, only to have it taken away with MLB's All-Time Saves Leader on the mound and a dubious safe call at home (never touched home!). The question now is, as a team, how will the Padres rebound from such a disappointing ending to a season. At 41, how much does Hoffman have left and can he shake the two blown saves to end the season?
2) Revamped NL West - The Diamondbacks got Dan Haren, the Dodgers got Joe Torre and Andruw Jones and the Rockies hung on to their nucleus. The NL West is far more competitive this year and some may argue that the Padres have done little to help their situation. Still, Kevin Tower's predicts only 90 wins will carry the Division. Can San Diego hit that magic number?
1) Left Field - A month ago I wrote about this and not much has changed except now the Padres may need a CF as well. Hairston once again leads in the LF competition but the Padres are attempting to figure out a way to get Chase Headley into their lineup. A third baseman by trade, Headley has been playing LF in the Spring and will likely continue to play LF for Portland to start the year. Over/under on Headley being a Padre: mid-May. So who will play left? Your guess is as good as mine right now.
6) Peavy, Young, Maddox and then...who? - The bottom of the rotation is up for grabs with some intriguing options all around. Justin Germano appears to be the presumed 4th/5th starter leaving the final spot open between Randy Wolf, Shawn Estes and Mark Prior. Estes has been shaky during the Spring so far, giving up at least 4 runs in just over 3 innings pitched so far. Randy Wolf is returning from elbow surgery and it is unclear whether he will be ready to go by Opening Day. Then there is Mark Prior. The Padres have spent little on him ($1 million plus incentives) and the potential is high. In 2003, Prior was the elite NL starter. Then Bartman happened, then a rash of injuries, some of the freaky variety, destroyed the next two seasons. Now he is in San Diego, rehabbing again, and is set to be ready to play by June. If he can play, Prior may turn out to be the steal of the Winter. If he can't...the Padres will play their third straight season without a definitive 5th starter.
5) Khalil Greene's Contract - The Padres were able to resign Greene this off-season but it wasn't without some controversy. The contract is not for the length desired by San Diego and has left some wondering if Greene wants to be in San Diego long term. His dislike for Petco is well-documented, however, that did not keep him from leading San Diego in RBI's, Doubles, and HR's last year and earning Team MVP honors. Will the contract issues be a distraction this year?
4) Jim Edmonds Knee - Kevin Towers has made a reputation for himself in getting prime players past their prime in an attempt to bring them back to their glory days. Jim Edmonds is the latest adventure, brought here to replace Mike Cameron. It wasn't to long ago Edmonds was an All-Star and, when healthy, he is considered one of the best defensive CF's in the league. When healthy...Edmonds is already plagued by a sore knee and is expected to miss 2-3 weeks. CF back-up plans are few and far between for San Diego, essentially beginning with Scott Hairston. The Padres are working some prospects out at center so far but the question remains, how much will we get out of Edmonds?
3) Hangover from Denver - The Padres went to Milwaukee last year having to win 2 of 4 to win the Wild Card. Tony Gwynn Jr. hit his infamous triple and ultimately the Padres found themselves in a 1-game playoff with the suddenly streaking Rockies. Hairston's HR in the 13th inning appeared to have propelled the Padres to the playoffs, only to have it taken away with MLB's All-Time Saves Leader on the mound and a dubious safe call at home (never touched home!). The question now is, as a team, how will the Padres rebound from such a disappointing ending to a season. At 41, how much does Hoffman have left and can he shake the two blown saves to end the season?
2) Revamped NL West - The Diamondbacks got Dan Haren, the Dodgers got Joe Torre and Andruw Jones and the Rockies hung on to their nucleus. The NL West is far more competitive this year and some may argue that the Padres have done little to help their situation. Still, Kevin Tower's predicts only 90 wins will carry the Division. Can San Diego hit that magic number?
1) Left Field - A month ago I wrote about this and not much has changed except now the Padres may need a CF as well. Hairston once again leads in the LF competition but the Padres are attempting to figure out a way to get Chase Headley into their lineup. A third baseman by trade, Headley has been playing LF in the Spring and will likely continue to play LF for Portland to start the year. Over/under on Headley being a Padre: mid-May. So who will play left? Your guess is as good as mine right now.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
What's Left for Left?
Here we are. The day when hearts flutter and excitment fills the air. No, not Valentine's Day, it's Pitchers and Catchers day. Yes, the official start to Spring Training for the Padres begins this Thursday February 14th as pitchers and catchers report to Peoria, AZ. So, with Spring right around the corner, where do the Padres stand? Let's take a look:
- The most notable move recently has been the 2-year deal reached with Khalil Greene. The deal is worth $11 million and avoids arbitration. What it didn't do was lock him down for a long-term deal. Ultimately, Greene took less than he was asking and if his production continues to increase one can only assume that this is the final two years of Greene as a Padre. Some scoffed at the idea of giving Greene even that much, considering is below average On Base Percentage and Batting Average. What those people forget is that on a Padre team somewhat void of a true power threat, Greene provides one of the few run producing options. And I don't think there is a price tag for the defense he provides for the Padres.
- The Padres likely made Chris Young very happy by coming to an agreement with Arizona Diamondback pinch-hitter/1B Tony Clark. A 1 - year deal worth $900K will bring Clark to San Diego to spell Adrian at first. The past two years we've watched Clark KILL the Padres, especially Young. It'll be nice to have him on our side finally.
- Left Field...There is no great answer to this. The Padres this year went after Geoff Jenkins, Jason Bay and Milton Bradley in attempts to find a replacement. Nothing worked out. Currently the Padres are looking at starting Scott Hairston in Left. Hairsont many will remember from last year's playoff push when Hairston had 8 homeruns in one month, 7 of which tied or gave the Padres the lead after the 7th inning. That's a pretty small sample size however. The other option is Chase Headley, the Padres Minor League Player of the Year...at third. If he can make the move it wouldn't surprise me to see Headley in Left by July. His suspect glove gives me some pause though.
- What is not, and should not, be an option for Left is Barry Bonds. This idea gets tossed around every few days. Bonds has yet to be signed by a team as a free agent and the obvious need in San Diego for a left-fielder is palpable. However, Bonds is a cancer, hated in San Diego (the town that threw a syringe at him!) and is a shell of the fielder he once was. Taken aside the obvious reaons (BALCO! BALCO! BALCO!) Bonds can't cover Petco Park's spacious outfield. Oh, and also, there's a decent shot Bonds will be in jail before the season is up. This couldn't be a worst move for a franchise built on defense and clubhouse harmony.
That's all for now. Spring Training is right around the corner and something tells me Kevin Towers hasn't made his last move!
- The most notable move recently has been the 2-year deal reached with Khalil Greene. The deal is worth $11 million and avoids arbitration. What it didn't do was lock him down for a long-term deal. Ultimately, Greene took less than he was asking and if his production continues to increase one can only assume that this is the final two years of Greene as a Padre. Some scoffed at the idea of giving Greene even that much, considering is below average On Base Percentage and Batting Average. What those people forget is that on a Padre team somewhat void of a true power threat, Greene provides one of the few run producing options. And I don't think there is a price tag for the defense he provides for the Padres.
- The Padres likely made Chris Young very happy by coming to an agreement with Arizona Diamondback pinch-hitter/1B Tony Clark. A 1 - year deal worth $900K will bring Clark to San Diego to spell Adrian at first. The past two years we've watched Clark KILL the Padres, especially Young. It'll be nice to have him on our side finally.
- Left Field...There is no great answer to this. The Padres this year went after Geoff Jenkins, Jason Bay and Milton Bradley in attempts to find a replacement. Nothing worked out. Currently the Padres are looking at starting Scott Hairston in Left. Hairsont many will remember from last year's playoff push when Hairston had 8 homeruns in one month, 7 of which tied or gave the Padres the lead after the 7th inning. That's a pretty small sample size however. The other option is Chase Headley, the Padres Minor League Player of the Year...at third. If he can make the move it wouldn't surprise me to see Headley in Left by July. His suspect glove gives me some pause though.
- What is not, and should not, be an option for Left is Barry Bonds. This idea gets tossed around every few days. Bonds has yet to be signed by a team as a free agent and the obvious need in San Diego for a left-fielder is palpable. However, Bonds is a cancer, hated in San Diego (the town that threw a syringe at him!) and is a shell of the fielder he once was. Taken aside the obvious reaons (BALCO! BALCO! BALCO!) Bonds can't cover Petco Park's spacious outfield. Oh, and also, there's a decent shot Bonds will be in jail before the season is up. This couldn't be a worst move for a franchise built on defense and clubhouse harmony.
That's all for now. Spring Training is right around the corner and something tells me Kevin Towers hasn't made his last move!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)