MLB as an organization can sometimes do the most frustrating things. For some reason, they seem dead set on ensuring that they never create any new fans. They have accomplished this goal in a variety of ways: putting a stranglehold on their footage which makes it nearly impossible to find clips of classic games (try to YouTube Joe Carter's World Series Winning HR and see if you can find a clip that wasn't just recorded by someone off their own TV); utilizing an insane blackout policy that, most notably, blacks out games for 6 teams in Las Vegas, which is home to a grand total of 0; and consistently dropping the ball on Opening Day.
Opening Day is fantastic and every baseball fan in America looks forward to it with the same zeal and excitement of Christmas. In previous years, MLB has started the "Opening Night" which I believed to be the previous years World Series champion in a one game showcase for the sport followed by Opening Day for everyone else (though, if memory serves, I think the Nationals had this honor once when their new stadium opened). Not a bad idea. Stealing a page from the NFL, MLB had created "an event" to bring people in.
So, one would assume the Giants would be playing in "Opening Night" this year, no? Wrong. Yes, the Giants did play a night game and yes it was on Opening Day, but it was at the end of a day full of games in the middle of the week. The first slate of MLB games for the 2011 season took place while most of America was at work. Nothing creates new fans like showcasing your sport at a time that no one can watch it. Brilliant.
To that end, the Padres opened their 2011 campaign in St. Louis at a 1:00pm start here on the West Coast. No chance to watch this while at work, so I set my DVR to record the nationally televised game on ESPN. Even tacked on an extra hour, a veteran move for anyone trying to record live sports (won't tell you how many last second drives, overtimes or 9th innings I've missed by not doing this).
Full disclosure: I live in Riverside, CA; outside the San Diego television market and outside the blackout radius for the San Diego Padres per MLB. Since moving up here more than a year ago, I have seen the Padres on MLB Network, Fox and ESPN without an issue.
Except for Opening Day. After watching the final inning of the Tigers vs Yankees game, I settled in for Tim Stauffer and the new look Padres. What I got was ESPNNews. 4 hours of ESPNNews.
I was less than pleasant to be around at this point.
After some cursing and venting via Twitter, I had to face reality. I wasn't going to be able to see the game. Therefore, might as well left the "information embargo" I had begun since 1:00pm and find out who won.
What I saw was stories of the Cameron Maybin Show. Diving catches, a game tying, down to their last out, HR in the 9th and an overall display of the potential that made him worth the relievers it cost to get him. It was a thrilling game and was reminiscent of so many of the 90 wins from 2010.
The Padres opened the 2011 campaign by winning in dramatic fashion against a team and in a city where they notoriously struggle.
Or so I'm told. Since I couldn't see it. Congratulations MLB.tv, you just got yourself a new customer.
Showing posts with label Opening Day. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Opening Day. Show all posts
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
MLB Props and Other Fun Bar Debates
I like prop bets. Not as a lifestyle per se. Just as a conversation starter. One of my favorite things about the Super Bowl is the wackiness of the various prop bets (O/U length of time for National Anthem; Color of Gatorade poured on winning coach; etc).
So, as we are less than 48 hours away from Opening Day, I thought a fun way to kill some time would be to look at some various MLB prop bets.* All lines via Sportsbook.com
Without further adieu, and in no particular order:
Most Regular Season HRs by Any Player
O/U 46.5
- Last year, Jose Bautista came out of nowhere to hit 54 HRs. Next closest. 42, by Albert Pujols. Coming in 3rd was Konerko with 39. That said, I'd take the UNDER. We are in the era of the pitcher and beyond the era of steroids.
Most Regular Season Wins by Any Pitcher
O/U 20.5
- OVER. Way over. Last year, 2 pitchers (C.C. and Halladay) won 21 games. But, including those two, 9 players had 18 wins or more. In the years 2000-2009, there were 34 20-game winners. This year, one team could have 4 of them alone. For the same reason we go under with HR, we go over here. At least one pitcher will win 21 games this year.
Albert Pujols Total HRs
O/U 38.5
- I don't know how much stock you put into the whole "contract year" thing. I know I've heard that there really is no statistical data that backs up the idea that players in a contract year outperform their average. But if ever someone was motivated to show they were worth $20 million plus per year, isn't it this guy? Is there anyway he DOESN'T hit 40 HRs? Take the OVER.
Adrian Gonzalez Total HRs
O/U 36.5
- Between 2007-2010, AGon has hit 30, 36, 40, 31 HRs respectively. And I don't think I need to remind anyone in this audience where he played 81 games a year during that stretch (not to mention equally cavernous parks in SF and LA). Now he moves to a park with these dimensions: 315 to Left (plus Green Monster), 379 Left-Center, 380 Right-Center, and 302 down the Right Field line. Yes he moves to a bigger market, more attention, more pressure. But he leaves behind facing guys like Jimeneaz, Lincecum, Cain, and Kershaw. I say OVER, but not by much.
Buster Posey Total HRs
O/U 19.5
- He hit 18 HRs in 2010 in 108 games. But now pitchers have had a year to face him, watch tape on him and scout him. Then again, so has Posey. Still, he loses the element of surprise and he plays in a big park. I go UNDER, but not by much.
4 Aces (Halladay, Oswalt, Lee, Hamels) Total Regular Season Wins
O/U 59.5
- This is one of the most intriguing and interesting props available in my opinion. Basically, an OVER bet is saying you expect these four guys to average 15 wins a season. Before you jump at the chance to take this, let me say this. Jose Contreas is starting the season as the Phillies closer. And, when healthy, Brad Lidge is their closer. These four guys are aces, no doubt. But thats a lot of wins for a bullpen that ranked 10th in the NL last year to hang on to. I say UNDER.
Heath Bell Regular Season Saves
O/U 35.5
- As a full time closer, Bell has yet to save under 40 (42, 47). This number seems way to low and, barring injury, should be eclipsed easily. Take the OVER.
And finally...
San Diego Padres Regular Season Wins
O/U 75.5
- An under bet basically says that you think the Padre would drop 15 games from a year ago. For any team, that is a substantial drop off. And if you think this, you are likely basing most of that on the loss of Adrian Gonzalez. Look, that's a big loss, no way around that. But keep in mind, the Padres won 90 games a year ago, despite scoring only 665 runs all year (good for 22nd in MLB). Padres won with pitching (in my opinion as good if not better than last year) and defense (way better up the middle). I don't know that they can win 90 games without some luck like they had a year ago. But I don't think they play 6 games under .500 either. Take the OVER.
*For Entertainment Purposes Only
So, as we are less than 48 hours away from Opening Day, I thought a fun way to kill some time would be to look at some various MLB prop bets.* All lines via Sportsbook.com
Without further adieu, and in no particular order:
Most Regular Season HRs by Any Player
O/U 46.5
- Last year, Jose Bautista came out of nowhere to hit 54 HRs. Next closest. 42, by Albert Pujols. Coming in 3rd was Konerko with 39. That said, I'd take the UNDER. We are in the era of the pitcher and beyond the era of steroids.
Most Regular Season Wins by Any Pitcher
O/U 20.5
- OVER. Way over. Last year, 2 pitchers (C.C. and Halladay) won 21 games. But, including those two, 9 players had 18 wins or more. In the years 2000-2009, there were 34 20-game winners. This year, one team could have 4 of them alone. For the same reason we go under with HR, we go over here. At least one pitcher will win 21 games this year.
Albert Pujols Total HRs
O/U 38.5
- I don't know how much stock you put into the whole "contract year" thing. I know I've heard that there really is no statistical data that backs up the idea that players in a contract year outperform their average. But if ever someone was motivated to show they were worth $20 million plus per year, isn't it this guy? Is there anyway he DOESN'T hit 40 HRs? Take the OVER.
Adrian Gonzalez Total HRs
O/U 36.5
- Between 2007-2010, AGon has hit 30, 36, 40, 31 HRs respectively. And I don't think I need to remind anyone in this audience where he played 81 games a year during that stretch (not to mention equally cavernous parks in SF and LA). Now he moves to a park with these dimensions: 315 to Left (plus Green Monster), 379 Left-Center, 380 Right-Center, and 302 down the Right Field line. Yes he moves to a bigger market, more attention, more pressure. But he leaves behind facing guys like Jimeneaz, Lincecum, Cain, and Kershaw. I say OVER, but not by much.
Buster Posey Total HRs
O/U 19.5
- He hit 18 HRs in 2010 in 108 games. But now pitchers have had a year to face him, watch tape on him and scout him. Then again, so has Posey. Still, he loses the element of surprise and he plays in a big park. I go UNDER, but not by much.
4 Aces (Halladay, Oswalt, Lee, Hamels) Total Regular Season Wins
O/U 59.5
- This is one of the most intriguing and interesting props available in my opinion. Basically, an OVER bet is saying you expect these four guys to average 15 wins a season. Before you jump at the chance to take this, let me say this. Jose Contreas is starting the season as the Phillies closer. And, when healthy, Brad Lidge is their closer. These four guys are aces, no doubt. But thats a lot of wins for a bullpen that ranked 10th in the NL last year to hang on to. I say UNDER.
Heath Bell Regular Season Saves
O/U 35.5
- As a full time closer, Bell has yet to save under 40 (42, 47). This number seems way to low and, barring injury, should be eclipsed easily. Take the OVER.
And finally...
San Diego Padres Regular Season Wins
O/U 75.5
- An under bet basically says that you think the Padre would drop 15 games from a year ago. For any team, that is a substantial drop off. And if you think this, you are likely basing most of that on the loss of Adrian Gonzalez. Look, that's a big loss, no way around that. But keep in mind, the Padres won 90 games a year ago, despite scoring only 665 runs all year (good for 22nd in MLB). Padres won with pitching (in my opinion as good if not better than last year) and defense (way better up the middle). I don't know that they can win 90 games without some luck like they had a year ago. But I don't think they play 6 games under .500 either. Take the OVER.
*For Entertainment Purposes Only
Monday, March 28, 2011
Roster Moves Begin to Shape Padres 25-man Roster
Busy news day for the Padres. A quick rundown of today's moves as we inch closer to Opening Day:
1) The biggest news of the day was the trade for Alberto Gonzalez (so look forward to a lot of double takes when you see in the box score "A. Gonzalez"). Padres traded Minor League pitcher Erik Davis, who was 14-3 with a 3.52 in 27 starts with Lake Elsinore, San Antonio, and Portland. This shores up one of the most glaring holes heading toward Opening Day in finding a defensive specialist to act as backup INF/Utility.
2) As feared/expected, Mat Latos will start the season on the DL.
3) Cory Luebke has been told he has made the team. Considering the Padres have 3 off days in the first 8 days and Latos on the DL, this may be short lived. Worth noting, he was used in one inning of relief work today so he could be used as reliever vs starter...for now.
4) Cedric Hunter, OF, has made the Opening Day roster. Hunter, 23, was the Padres top ranked prospect in 2006. Get to know your new backup OF here.
5) Aaron Harang was named the Padres home opener starter.
So, as you can see, a busy day for the Padres. More decisions sure to follow tomorrow.
Finally, some housekeeping. If you are on Facebook, don't forget to "Like" the Official Left Coast Bias page. Link is to the left.
1) The biggest news of the day was the trade for Alberto Gonzalez (so look forward to a lot of double takes when you see in the box score "A. Gonzalez"). Padres traded Minor League pitcher Erik Davis, who was 14-3 with a 3.52 in 27 starts with Lake Elsinore, San Antonio, and Portland. This shores up one of the most glaring holes heading toward Opening Day in finding a defensive specialist to act as backup INF/Utility.
2) As feared/expected, Mat Latos will start the season on the DL.
3) Cory Luebke has been told he has made the team. Considering the Padres have 3 off days in the first 8 days and Latos on the DL, this may be short lived. Worth noting, he was used in one inning of relief work today so he could be used as reliever vs starter...for now.
4) Cedric Hunter, OF, has made the Opening Day roster. Hunter, 23, was the Padres top ranked prospect in 2006. Get to know your new backup OF here.
5) Aaron Harang was named the Padres home opener starter.
So, as you can see, a busy day for the Padres. More decisions sure to follow tomorrow.
Finally, some housekeeping. If you are on Facebook, don't forget to "Like" the Official Left Coast Bias page. Link is to the left.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Opening Day Musings
I'm watching the news this morning while enjoying my coffee and all I hear about is the weather bringing havoc to Opening Day. The White Sox game has been snowed out. The Red Sox opener, rained out.
It will be in the mid-70's today for the Padres home opener. So, no matter the talent on the field this year, San Diego fans can enjoy the fact that there is no snow or rain on Opening Day.
At the beginning of the movie Major League there is a montage of different fans throughout Cleveland complaining that they don't recognize any of the players on this year's Indians team. In a way, I feel like that's what is happening here in San Diego. Names like Evereth Cabrera, Correia, and pretty much the entire bullpen are not household names.
Let me be the one to say that no-name players does not equate to a poor quality team. Is it likely that the Padres will finish in last place? Probably. Though Baseball Prospectus does predict an 11 game turnaround for the Padres that would leave them only 1 game back of third place in the division. The fact of the matter is we don't know. We don't know if this bullpen can hold up, if this starting rotation can win some games and if, like Kevin Towers says, this offense is better than last year.
But that's the beauty of Opening Day. Today, the Padres are not in last, are not a mile behind the leaders, and there's no reason to believe, if only for the day, that the Padres could surprise people. What that surprise looks like is unclear? To me, finishing .500 would be a surprise based on the "experts" pre-season prediction. Less we forget these same "experts" predicted the Tigers to win the A.L. How'd that go?
I'll be at Opening Day today, enjoying the XX1090 Block Party before hand and taken advantage of the new food deals at Petco. Follow Left Coast Bias on Twitter live from Petco at LeftCoastBias.
Enjoy Opening Day!
It will be in the mid-70's today for the Padres home opener. So, no matter the talent on the field this year, San Diego fans can enjoy the fact that there is no snow or rain on Opening Day.
At the beginning of the movie Major League there is a montage of different fans throughout Cleveland complaining that they don't recognize any of the players on this year's Indians team. In a way, I feel like that's what is happening here in San Diego. Names like Evereth Cabrera, Correia, and pretty much the entire bullpen are not household names.
Let me be the one to say that no-name players does not equate to a poor quality team. Is it likely that the Padres will finish in last place? Probably. Though Baseball Prospectus does predict an 11 game turnaround for the Padres that would leave them only 1 game back of third place in the division. The fact of the matter is we don't know. We don't know if this bullpen can hold up, if this starting rotation can win some games and if, like Kevin Towers says, this offense is better than last year.
But that's the beauty of Opening Day. Today, the Padres are not in last, are not a mile behind the leaders, and there's no reason to believe, if only for the day, that the Padres could surprise people. What that surprise looks like is unclear? To me, finishing .500 would be a surprise based on the "experts" pre-season prediction. Less we forget these same "experts" predicted the Tigers to win the A.L. How'd that go?
I'll be at Opening Day today, enjoying the XX1090 Block Party before hand and taken advantage of the new food deals at Petco. Follow Left Coast Bias on Twitter live from Petco at LeftCoastBias.
Enjoy Opening Day!
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