MLB Prop Bets 2012

If you follow this blog or its related Twitter feed, you may notice that I like sports gambling. I like doing it, though my trips to Vegas are fewer and farther between these days. But I like knowing what the odds are, how the odds shift based on various pieces of information coming out. And I love me some props. Prop bets are both fun and sometimes goofy (this past Super Bowl had a prop for how many times Giselle Bundchen would be shown during the game). Last year I wrote the first annual Left Coast Bias MLB Prop Post.

Last year I went 4-4. Respectable, but we can do better.

As always, this is for entertainment purposes only.

Who Will Hit Most HR's in 2012?
My Pick: Matt Kemp 18/1
Why? Kemp finished 3rd last year in MLB in HR with 39. This was also good enough for best in the National League. Despite that, you are getting 18/1 for him to lead the league this year. While Bautista has won this two years in a row now, getting 18/1 on a player as good as Kemp is a value bet.

Adrian Gonzalez BA O/U .305
My Pick: Over
Why? Adrian Gonzalez saw a 40 point increase in BA in his first year in Boston. While his power did not see the uptick many predicted, Gonzalez still proved he was one of the best hitters in baseball. Caution however, that prior to last year that last time Gonzalez hit over .300 was 2006. That being said, I'll take my chances with the smaller ballpark and the protection throughout the lineup.

Justin Verlander SO O/U 225.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Here is Verlander's last three seasons strikeout totals since the Tigers stopped limiting his innings: 269, 219, 250. Once out of three seasons he went under, and that time he only went under by 6 SO. The two seasons he went over he went WAY over. I'll bank on those seasons.

Matt Kemp O/U HR 33.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Bautista hit 43 HR's last year to lead MLB. If I'm picking Kemp to do that this year, I have to believe he goes over 33.5.

Cameron Maybin Total SB O/U 34.5
My Pick: Under
Why? Maybin stole 40 bases last season. His previous high in the Majors? 9. We know Maybin can run. We know the Padres like to run. But 35 stolen bases is a ton. More a hunch then anything though wouldn't be shocked if Maybin matched 40 again.

Huston Street Total Saves O/U 30.5
My Pick: Under
Why? Andrew. Cashner. Whether Street is traded or not, I think there is a better than outside shot that Cashner is the closer by the end of the season. Street has been struggling in Spring Training. The argument for the over is, of course, the fact that the Padres don't play many high scoring games. Meaning they have ample chances for saves. It's just a matter of who will receive those saves.

San Diego Padres Regular Season Wins O/U 73.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Because I'm a sucker. But seriously. The Padres won 71 games last season despite the Brad Hawpe and Ryan Ludwick experience, and sudden down year from Mat Latos, and essentially no offense. However, their Pythogorean W/L was 79-83. This year, this team has the chance to be sneaky decent. A lot of young, highly touted young players. If Headley and Venable breakout, if Maybin continues to improve, if Luebke is the ace people think he can be, if Alonso is as advertised at first, etc etc. In a worst case scenario, this team wins 71 games like last year. Considering how many close games they play, sheer luck could increase a 71 win season to a 74 win season. A few things break the right way and this is a .500 team primed for 2013.

And finally...

Odds to Win World Series: San Diego Padres 70/1

Sometimes you have to put your money where your mouth is. You just never know:

Looking In on the Pre-Season Bets

Back before the season started I looked up a few pre-season proposition bets for the upcoming MLB season and wrote a blog post about it. As we are under 3 weeks before the season ends, I thought it would be fun to look back and relieve those picks. And for you all to see why I work for a living vs gamble for a living.


Most Regular Season HR's by Any Player: O/U 46.5
My Pick: Over
How's It Looking? For the second year in a row, Jose Bautista is leading MLB in HR's. Whether that's because pitchers haven't learned to stop throwing him first pitch fastballs, sign stealing or some other reason is irrelevant. For purposes of this blog, what is relevant is he has 41 HR's as of this writing. So with less than 3 weeks away we are looking at 6 more HR's. Doable...though he is currently in a 5 game HR drought. Time, my friend, is a ticking.

Most Regular Season Wins by Any Pitcher: O/U 20.5
My Pick: Over
How's It Looking? WINNER. WINNER. CHICKEN. DINNER! Justin Verlander is already at 22 wins which means "we goin' Sizzler, we goin' Sizzler." It's the era of the pitcher. Never mind that my thought was it would be one of Philly's four starters. Just ignore that part and enjoy your steak.


Albert Pujols Total HR's: O/U 38.5
My Pick: Over
How's It Looking? Pujols is sitting at 34 as we speak. The reasoning for going over is, A) it's Albert Freaking Pujols, and; B) Contract Year. This would already be a winner had it not been for his mid-season injury. Even with that injury, though, we are only 5 HR's away from cashing in. The bad news: He hasn't gone deep since Sept. 1.

Adrian Gonzalez Total HR's: O/U 36.5
My Pick: Over...barely
How's It Looking? Not so good. I tempered my pick on this one but landed on over for this reason: He had gone 30, 36, 40, 31 over the past four years while playing at Petco Park. Moving to Fenway, the thought was he would increasing those HR totals. Despite the MVP type season he is having, his HR total is at 24, on pace for his lowest total in the past 5 years.

Buster Posey Total HR's: O/U 19.5
My Pick: Under
How's It Looking? Great! Thanks to a season ending injury in May, Posey managed only 4 HR's this season. Fun sidenote. In the article I just Google'd to get the date of Posey's injury, the story mentioned how the Giants were "hesitant to say this was season-ending." Oh Giants. So young, so naive.

4 Aces (Halladay, Oswalt, Lee, Hamels) Total Regular Season Wins: O/U 59.5
My Pick: Under
How's It Looking? The thought for going under here had more to do with their bullpen. What ended up happening was the Philadelphia offense wasn't quite what I expected, but then again, neither was Lee. Still time for them to hit the over here, but as Philadelphia has all but secured the NL East, not seeing a lot of starts for these 4 down the stretch.

Heath Bell Regular Season Saves: O/U 35.5
My Pick: Over
How's It Looking? WINNER. WINNER. CHICKEN. DINNER. Bell, in two years as a full time closer, had yet to save less than 40. And while this year may be the year, he is already at 36 saves despite the fact that he's been MIA for long stretches of time this season (through no fault of his own).

San Diego Padres Regular Season Wins: O/U 75.5
My Pick: Over
How's It Looking? Well, if they go undefeated the rest of the season...forget it. I'm embarrassed. Let's move on.






*FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY

MLB Props and Other Fun Bar Debates

I like prop bets. Not as a lifestyle per se. Just as a conversation starter. One of my favorite things about the Super Bowl is the wackiness of the various prop bets (O/U length of time for National Anthem; Color of Gatorade poured on winning coach; etc).

So, as we are less than 48 hours away from Opening Day, I thought a fun way to kill some time would be to look at some various MLB prop bets.* All lines via Sportsbook.com

Without further adieu, and in no particular order:

Most Regular Season HRs by Any Player
O/U 46.5
- Last year, Jose Bautista came out of nowhere to hit 54 HRs. Next closest. 42, by Albert Pujols. Coming in 3rd was Konerko with 39. That said, I'd take the UNDER. We are in the era of the pitcher and beyond the era of steroids.

Most Regular Season Wins by Any Pitcher
O/U 20.5
- OVER. Way over. Last year, 2 pitchers (C.C. and Halladay) won 21 games. But, including those two, 9 players had 18 wins or more. In the years 2000-2009, there were 34 20-game winners. This year, one team could have 4 of them alone. For the same reason we go under with HR, we go over here. At least one pitcher will win 21 games this year.

Albert Pujols Total HRs
O/U 38.5
- I don't know how much stock you put into the whole "contract year" thing. I know I've heard that there really is no statistical data that backs up the idea that players in a contract year outperform their average. But if ever someone was motivated to show they were worth $20 million plus per year, isn't it this guy? Is there anyway he DOESN'T hit 40 HRs? Take the OVER.

Adrian Gonzalez Total HRs
O/U 36.5
- Between 2007-2010, AGon has hit 30, 36, 40, 31 HRs respectively. And I don't think I need to remind anyone in this audience where he played 81 games a year during that stretch (not to mention equally cavernous parks in SF and LA). Now he moves to a park with these dimensions: 315 to Left (plus Green Monster), 379 Left-Center, 380 Right-Center, and 302 down the Right Field line. Yes he moves to a bigger market, more attention, more pressure. But he leaves behind facing guys like Jimeneaz, Lincecum, Cain, and Kershaw. I say OVER, but not by much.

Buster Posey Total HRs
O/U 19.5
- He hit 18 HRs in 2010 in 108 games. But now pitchers have had a year to face him, watch tape on him and scout him. Then again, so has Posey. Still, he loses the element of surprise and he plays in a big park. I go UNDER, but not by much.

4 Aces (Halladay, Oswalt, Lee, Hamels) Total Regular Season Wins
O/U 59.5
- This is one of the most intriguing and interesting props available in my opinion. Basically, an OVER bet is saying you expect these four guys to average 15 wins a season. Before you jump at the chance to take this, let me say this. Jose Contreas is starting the season as the Phillies closer. And, when healthy, Brad Lidge is their closer. These four guys are aces, no doubt. But thats a lot of wins for a bullpen that ranked 10th in the NL last year to hang on to. I say UNDER.

Heath Bell Regular Season Saves
O/U 35.5
- As a full time closer, Bell has yet to save under 40 (42, 47). This number seems way to low and, barring injury, should be eclipsed easily. Take the OVER.

And finally...

San Diego Padres Regular Season Wins
O/U 75.5
- An under bet basically says that you think the Padre would drop 15 games from a year ago. For any team, that is a substantial drop off. And if you think this, you are likely basing most of that on the loss of Adrian Gonzalez. Look, that's a big loss, no way around that. But keep in mind, the Padres won 90 games a year ago, despite scoring only 665 runs all year (good for 22nd in MLB). Padres won with pitching (in my opinion as good if not better than last year) and defense (way better up the middle). I don't know that they can win 90 games without some luck like they had a year ago. But I don't think they play 6 games under .500 either. Take the OVER.







*For Entertainment Purposes Only