MLB Prop Bets 2012

If you follow this blog or its related Twitter feed, you may notice that I like sports gambling. I like doing it, though my trips to Vegas are fewer and farther between these days. But I like knowing what the odds are, how the odds shift based on various pieces of information coming out. And I love me some props. Prop bets are both fun and sometimes goofy (this past Super Bowl had a prop for how many times Giselle Bundchen would be shown during the game). Last year I wrote the first annual Left Coast Bias MLB Prop Post.

Last year I went 4-4. Respectable, but we can do better.

As always, this is for entertainment purposes only.

Who Will Hit Most HR's in 2012?
My Pick: Matt Kemp 18/1
Why? Kemp finished 3rd last year in MLB in HR with 39. This was also good enough for best in the National League. Despite that, you are getting 18/1 for him to lead the league this year. While Bautista has won this two years in a row now, getting 18/1 on a player as good as Kemp is a value bet.

Adrian Gonzalez BA O/U .305
My Pick: Over
Why? Adrian Gonzalez saw a 40 point increase in BA in his first year in Boston. While his power did not see the uptick many predicted, Gonzalez still proved he was one of the best hitters in baseball. Caution however, that prior to last year that last time Gonzalez hit over .300 was 2006. That being said, I'll take my chances with the smaller ballpark and the protection throughout the lineup.

Justin Verlander SO O/U 225.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Here is Verlander's last three seasons strikeout totals since the Tigers stopped limiting his innings: 269, 219, 250. Once out of three seasons he went under, and that time he only went under by 6 SO. The two seasons he went over he went WAY over. I'll bank on those seasons.

Matt Kemp O/U HR 33.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Bautista hit 43 HR's last year to lead MLB. If I'm picking Kemp to do that this year, I have to believe he goes over 33.5.

Cameron Maybin Total SB O/U 34.5
My Pick: Under
Why? Maybin stole 40 bases last season. His previous high in the Majors? 9. We know Maybin can run. We know the Padres like to run. But 35 stolen bases is a ton. More a hunch then anything though wouldn't be shocked if Maybin matched 40 again.

Huston Street Total Saves O/U 30.5
My Pick: Under
Why? Andrew. Cashner. Whether Street is traded or not, I think there is a better than outside shot that Cashner is the closer by the end of the season. Street has been struggling in Spring Training. The argument for the over is, of course, the fact that the Padres don't play many high scoring games. Meaning they have ample chances for saves. It's just a matter of who will receive those saves.

San Diego Padres Regular Season Wins O/U 73.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Because I'm a sucker. But seriously. The Padres won 71 games last season despite the Brad Hawpe and Ryan Ludwick experience, and sudden down year from Mat Latos, and essentially no offense. However, their Pythogorean W/L was 79-83. This year, this team has the chance to be sneaky decent. A lot of young, highly touted young players. If Headley and Venable breakout, if Maybin continues to improve, if Luebke is the ace people think he can be, if Alonso is as advertised at first, etc etc. In a worst case scenario, this team wins 71 games like last year. Considering how many close games they play, sheer luck could increase a 71 win season to a 74 win season. A few things break the right way and this is a .500 team primed for 2013.

And finally...

Odds to Win World Series: San Diego Padres 70/1

Sometimes you have to put your money where your mouth is. You just never know:

BBA Connie Mack and Stan Musial Award Ballot

As part of the BBA Post-Season Awards, I will be providing my ballot for the top manager in each league and the top player in each league.

Without further adieu, Left Coast Bias respectfully submits the following:

National League Manager of the Year (Connie Mack Award)

1) Kirk Gibson - Arizona Diamondbacks
29 win difference. That's the difference between the Diamondbacks in 2010 and the Diamondbacks of 2011. Even using the Diamondbacks Pythorgean W/L record of 88-74 still wins the division (perhaps more a statement of the NL West in 2011 than anything). They were picked by nearly every "expert" to finish last or 4th in the West. They weren't the best hitting team, nor the best pitching team. They just kept winning and they ran away with the division. When you are at the helm of the biggest turnaround in baseball, you win this award. It's just a fact. Case closed.

2) Ronald Roenicke - Milwaukee Brewers
Some could say that winning the division with two potential MVP candidates is not impressive. I say winning the NL Central, any year, is impressive. The Brewers quietly were the 2nd best team in the National League, had the distraction of Prince Fielder's imminent departure, and easily won the division.

3) Charlie Manuel - Philadelphia Phillies
There's something to be said for winning when you are expected to. While he had the four aces, the NL East is perhaps arguably the best division in the National League. And the Phillies, despite injuries, still dominated.


American League Manager of the Year (Connie Mack Award)

1) Joe Maddon - Tampa Bay Rays
Maybe it's unfair to win an award for one month of work. But when you catch the AL favorite, down 9 games, despite a collapse on their part, you have to be considered for this award. Maddon was able to keep a clubhouse that had every reason to cash in on the season and get ready for fishing and golfing focused. It took all 162 games, but the Rays are post-season bound. And every decision Maddon made in September seemed to be the right one.

2) Ron Washington - Texas Rangers
Against who it mattered most, the Rangers dominated. They were 12-7 against the Angels, a record that all but buried the Angels and their post-season hopes. They lost Josh Hamilton for a significant portion of the year, struggled for much of the year with a leaky bullpen, yet ran away with the AL West by 10 games.

3) Jim Leyland - Detroit Tigers
For much of the year, the AL Central was the Indians. The White Sox and Twins both made runs of varying degrees at some point this season. The Tigers just kept on going, behind superace Justin Verlander and MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera.



National League Player of the Year (Stan Musial Award)

1) Matt Kemp - Los Angeles Dodgers
.11 pts away from winning the Triple Crown. As this category is "Player of the Year" not "MVP" Matt Kemp was clearly the best player in the National League in 2011.

2) Ryan Braun - Milwaukee Brewers
Led the league in OPS, top 10 in RBI, Batting Average, and HR. A completely dominant season from Ryan Braun.

3) Justin Upton - Arizona Diamondbacks
It's crazy to think now that Upton was nearly traded last off-season. This pick may make the statheads head explode, but their are few players I enjoy watching more than Upton. A key to the Diamondbacks unlikely 2011 run.

Best of the Rest:
4) Lance Berkman - St. Louis Cardinals
5) Roy Halladay - Philadelphia Phillies
6) Jose Reyes - New York Mets
7) Prince Fielder - Milwaukee Brewers
8) Troy Tulowitzki - Colorado Rockies
9) Joey Votto - Cincinnati Reds
10) Albert Pujols - St. Louis Cardinals



American League Player of the Year (Stan Musial Award)

1) Justin Verlander - Detroit Tigers
In part because no offensive player in my mind ran away with this, Verlander was the most dominant single player in the American League this year. A bold statement for someone that only plays every 5 days perhaps, but to me, there was no one who had a more prolific season than him. His 2011 shouldn't be relegated only to the Cy Young (which he will certainly win).

2) Jacoby Ellsbury - Boston Red Sox
Ellsbury saved the Red Sox season on a variety of times in September until the magic finally ran out. Despite a complete meltdown around him, Ellsbury remained a bright spot.

3) Jose Bautista - Toronto Blue Jays
Two years in a row leading the league in homeruns, an insane 1.056 OPS, and hit over .300. Best player on a team that is getting better every year. Sign stealing or no sign stealing, this guy showed that 2010 was no fluke.

Best of the Rest:
4) Evan Longoria - Tampa Bay Rays
5) Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers
6) Curtis Granderson - New York Yankees
7) Adrian Gonzalez - Boston Red Sox
8) Paul Konerko - Chicago White Sox
9) Mark Teixeira - New York Yankees
10) Jered Weaver - Anaheim Angels