MLB Prop Bets 2012

If you follow this blog or its related Twitter feed, you may notice that I like sports gambling. I like doing it, though my trips to Vegas are fewer and farther between these days. But I like knowing what the odds are, how the odds shift based on various pieces of information coming out. And I love me some props. Prop bets are both fun and sometimes goofy (this past Super Bowl had a prop for how many times Giselle Bundchen would be shown during the game). Last year I wrote the first annual Left Coast Bias MLB Prop Post.

Last year I went 4-4. Respectable, but we can do better.

As always, this is for entertainment purposes only.

Who Will Hit Most HR's in 2012?
My Pick: Matt Kemp 18/1
Why? Kemp finished 3rd last year in MLB in HR with 39. This was also good enough for best in the National League. Despite that, you are getting 18/1 for him to lead the league this year. While Bautista has won this two years in a row now, getting 18/1 on a player as good as Kemp is a value bet.

Adrian Gonzalez BA O/U .305
My Pick: Over
Why? Adrian Gonzalez saw a 40 point increase in BA in his first year in Boston. While his power did not see the uptick many predicted, Gonzalez still proved he was one of the best hitters in baseball. Caution however, that prior to last year that last time Gonzalez hit over .300 was 2006. That being said, I'll take my chances with the smaller ballpark and the protection throughout the lineup.

Justin Verlander SO O/U 225.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Here is Verlander's last three seasons strikeout totals since the Tigers stopped limiting his innings: 269, 219, 250. Once out of three seasons he went under, and that time he only went under by 6 SO. The two seasons he went over he went WAY over. I'll bank on those seasons.

Matt Kemp O/U HR 33.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Bautista hit 43 HR's last year to lead MLB. If I'm picking Kemp to do that this year, I have to believe he goes over 33.5.

Cameron Maybin Total SB O/U 34.5
My Pick: Under
Why? Maybin stole 40 bases last season. His previous high in the Majors? 9. We know Maybin can run. We know the Padres like to run. But 35 stolen bases is a ton. More a hunch then anything though wouldn't be shocked if Maybin matched 40 again.

Huston Street Total Saves O/U 30.5
My Pick: Under
Why? Andrew. Cashner. Whether Street is traded or not, I think there is a better than outside shot that Cashner is the closer by the end of the season. Street has been struggling in Spring Training. The argument for the over is, of course, the fact that the Padres don't play many high scoring games. Meaning they have ample chances for saves. It's just a matter of who will receive those saves.

San Diego Padres Regular Season Wins O/U 73.5
My Pick: Over
Why? Because I'm a sucker. But seriously. The Padres won 71 games last season despite the Brad Hawpe and Ryan Ludwick experience, and sudden down year from Mat Latos, and essentially no offense. However, their Pythogorean W/L was 79-83. This year, this team has the chance to be sneaky decent. A lot of young, highly touted young players. If Headley and Venable breakout, if Maybin continues to improve, if Luebke is the ace people think he can be, if Alonso is as advertised at first, etc etc. In a worst case scenario, this team wins 71 games like last year. Considering how many close games they play, sheer luck could increase a 71 win season to a 74 win season. A few things break the right way and this is a .500 team primed for 2013.

And finally...

Odds to Win World Series: San Diego Padres 70/1

Sometimes you have to put your money where your mouth is. You just never know:

Rooting for Evil

As I type this, the Padres first game of a 6 game road trip is in a rain delay in Washington D.C.

Luckily for me, I have MLB.tv, which allowed to me switch to the Boston vs Detroit game just in time to see Boston score 5 runs in the top of the 3rd inning. While watching, my mind began to wander, as it is want to do from time to time. So, if you will excuse the momentary deviation from the typical Padres talk, I offer this quandary.

What if the Red Sox make the World Series?

Despite their awful start to the season, the Red Sox find themselves tied for first in the AL East. Based merely on my own eyeball test on the handful of games I've seen, their offense is as good as advertised, and as I write this Carl Crawford hits his 4th HR, a 2-run shot. Assuming Crawford can get hot, this offense is all the better.

But this isn't about the ins and outs of the Red Sox season. I'm not the guy to talk about that as I don't follow this team (or really, the American League) to offer in depth analysis beyond what a boxscore or highlights reveal.

My point is this. The Red Sox appear to be, if not the best, then one of the best teams in the AL. And yes, it's only Memorial Day, but it looks like they are only getting better, not worst.

So, the quandary then? Adrian Gonzalez.


This still looks weird to me.











I'm still an Adrian Gonzalez fan. I know to some this is already blasphemy. I can't help it. I like him and as far as I'm concerned he left San Diego on good terms. Call me soft if you must.

To that end, I want to see Adrain Gonzalez win a World Series at some point in his career. He is one of the games best players and a player I have invested a lot in from an emotional standpoint. It is sad to me when any sports great players retire without that ring, unless I absolutely loathe that player (looking at you Eli Manning with your Super Bowl ring you don't deserve) when it gets to the end of their career, I root for those players. Many a time, in games I otherwise had little to no rooting interest in, I find myself pulling for the fading veteran still looking for that ring (Jerome Bettis being a great example and the first one I thought of).

So I want Adrian to win. But here's the rub. He plays for a team that I cannot stand. Most teams I'm indifferent about. Does anyone have a strong opinion about the Astros or Twins? not unless you are a fan of those teams. But for me, the list of teams that I actually hate is short: Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox.

End of list.

The Red Sox are the most recent addition to that list. In the interest of full disclosure, in 2004 they were nowhere near this list. I pulled for them and their 90ish years of failure. I got caught up in the 2004 ALCS. Who didn't? Down 3 games to the Yankees (who I never liked but began hating in 1998...about mid October if memory serves) they pulled off one of the greatest comebacks in MLB history.

Then came the books, and talk shows, and the fans. My God the fans. They would not shut up about the Red Sox. They became insufferable. The team then dropped the GNP of Guatemala on Dice K. They had become another Yankees, engaged in an ongoing arms race with their rivals to the south. It wasn't until I went to a Padres game vs Boston that my hate for the Red Sox reached it's apex. The fans were obnoxious, arrogant and all together infuriating.

But now one of my favorite players in baseball plays for one of my least favorite teams. And not just one of my least favorite teams. A team I hate. Loathe. Wish bad things on.

So, if the Red Sox make the World Series, where will my rooting interest lie? I suppose it depends on who is in the World Series from the NL. But the possibility is there and I fear I will find myself pulling for the Red Sox solely based on Adrian Gonzalez, despite my best intentions to the contrary.

So I ask you, do you want to see Adrian Gonzalez win a World Series? Do you not care now that "Padres" is not written on his jersey? Do you have the Red Sox to a point that it is irrelevant who is on the team?

And Then There Were Two

Two thoroughly entertaining League Championship Series wrapped up last night when the San Francisco Giants beat Philadelphia 3-2 thanks to an 8th inning opposite field HR from Juan Uribe and a 5 out save from Brian Wilson.

So, the World Series is set. Rangers, who came into existence as a franchis in 1961 as the Washington Senators after the original Senators moved to Minnesota to become the Twins. And until 2010, this franchise had not won a playoff SERIES let alone gone to the World Series.

On the other side you have the San Francisco Giants, one of the oldest teams in MLB history. Originally founded in 1883, the Giants have won 5 World Series titles...all in New York. The last coming in 1954 when they swept the Cleveland Indians in a World Series most known for "The Catch" by Willie Mays in CF. But, since moving to San Francisco in 1958, the Giants have not won a World Series despite appearances in '62, '89, '02.

So the stage is set for a historic World Series no matter the outcome. Either the first World Series championship in a franchise history or the first since a team moved 3000 miles away. Perhaps a more complete preview will be forthcoming prior to Game 1 on Wednesday, but for now, to get everyone ready for the 2010 World Series, here are my Top 10 World Series Moments (these will be primarily based on World Series in my lifetime so keep that in mind):

10) 1989 World Series: Battle of the Bay. World Series Interrupted by Earthquake. A's vs Giants

The first World Series that I can vividly remember because of the earthquake. The series itself was not terribly interesting, but will always be remembered for how Game 3 began. Go to the 4:30 mark to see the ABC broadcast cut off by the earthquake.

9) 1991 World Series: Kirby Puckett Walk Off in Game 6 (Bonus: Jack Morris performance in Game 7) Twins vs Braves


"AND WE'LL SEE YOU TOMORROW NIGHT!" Nothing beat the Metrodome during a playoff game. This HR lead to Jack Morris turning in arguably the greatest pitching performance in World Series history in Game 7 where he threw a 10 inning complete game shut out. Go to the 1:30 mark for Puckett's HR.

8) 1997 World Series: Edgar Renteria's walk-off single in the 11th inning of Game 7. Marlins vs Indians


This video kind of sucks but the Renteria hit is at the 1:17 mark. Points are taken off this moment for two reasons: The Marlins fire sale that followed and the continued hatred that God has for all things Cleveland sports.

7) 1986 World Series: The Buckner Play. Mets vs Red Sox


Remember when the Red Sox were lovable? Those were the days. I couldn't feel more bad for Buckner as his entire career (life?) has been defined by this one moment. The video above is the NES RBI Baseball recreation of that moment because, well, if you are reading this then I assume you are a baseball fan and if that's the case then you have seen this a thousand times.

6) 1988 World Series "A Roll of the Dice" Dodgers vs A's
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VeCuNRWqdLg&feature=related

Look, I get it. We all hate the Dodgers and I'm at the front of that line. But you are lying to yourself if you don't consider Kirk Gibson's Walk-Off HR off Eck in Game 1 as a great moment. For some reason this wouldn't embed but the link is above. HR at the 6:52 mark.

5) 2004 World Series: Reverse the Curse


This is not the most memorable of World Series on its own but the story behind how the Red Sox got there and the history of futility make this memorable. It also marks the last time the Red Sox and "Red Sox Nation" were tolerable.

4) 2002 World Series: Rally Monkeys and Thunder Sticks. Angels vs Giants


This is probably most known for the Giants collapse in Game 6. Leading 5-0 in the 7th inning of Game 6, the Giants Dusty Baker pulled Russ Ortiz in the 7th after giving up 2 singles (and gave him the game ball as he left). The Angels flashed the Rally Monkey, Spiezio hit a 3 run HR and the rally was on.

3) 1960 World Series: The Greatest Game Ever Played. Pirates vs Yankees


Only twice in baseball history has the World Series ended on a homerun. This is the first time in what is widely considered the greatest game every played. Bill Mazeroski walk-off HR to win the 1960 World Series.

2) 1993 World Series: Touch Em' All Joe. Blue Jays vs Phillies



The only other time a World Series ended on a HR was Joe Carter's walk off HR to beat the Phillies Mitch Williams and secure back-to-back World Series championships for the Blue Jays.

1) 2001 Series: Bloop Singles and Mr. November
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=3364797

Arguably this is the greatest World Series that has been played in my lifetime. Things got crazy in Game 4, where the DBacks were up 3-1 in the 9th in Yankee stadium and were only 3 outs away from taking a 3-1 lead in the series. DBacks closer Byung Young Kim gave up a 2 run HR to Tino Martinez. Bob Brenley inexplicably stayed with Kim in the 10th in which he gave up the walk-off to Jeter just after midnight, making this the first game to be played in November.

In Game 5, it was Scott Brosius who hit a 2 run HR with 2 outs in the 9th off Byung Young Kim that once again sent the game into extra innings where the Yankees ultimately prevailed.

But it was Game 7 that this series is perhaps best known for and the decision to bring the infield in. Luis Gonzalez bloop single behind Jeter (where, had Jeter been playing normal depth would have simply been an easy pop out) drove in the winning run and sent the DBacks to their first (and only) World Series championship.


So there you have it, my Top 10 World Series moments. Here's hoping 2010 can crack this list. Enjoy the Series!